The DLF Mailbag
Welcome to the latest edition of the weekly mailbag.
Send me your questions using the DLF Mailbag Form and I’ll include the best in future articles. Remember the guidelines to have the best chance at seeing your question get posted:
1.) Dynasty questions only, no start/sit questions
2.) Help me help you by providing sufficient information about your league (e.g. line-up requirements/PPR or non-PPR/etc.), and include your first name and where you’re from.
3.) Your chance of getting your question answered is inversely proportional to the length of the question.
Let’s get to it!
1.) In my 12-team PPR league, I can’t decide on my last two keepers. I’m choosing between Bryce Brown, Daryl Richardson and Jonathan Stewart. Brown might be more than just a handcuff as he could play a lot, Richardson could be Rams’ starter in a RBBC, and Stewart is unpredictable – which two do you recommend? – Gudari in Spain
I think the vast majority of DLF readers are familiar with my affinity for the Panthers’ Jonathan Stewart by now. Of the three running backs you mentioned, I believe he’s the most talented, and that he still offers upside for the next three to five years. So it might surprise you that, in an M. Night Shyamalan level twist, I’m going to advise you to kick him to the curb.
To be clear, I’m not changing my tune on Stewart. However, in a keeper setting, it makes the most sense to base your decisions around the current market trends. In this case, due to his injury, Stewart is trending downwards. Conversely, with the promise of higher workloads in improved offenses, the figurative stocks of the Rams’ Daryl Richardson and the Eagles’ Bryce Brown are ascending.
Richardson appears to have locked up the starting job in St. Louis, due to a combination of his strong preseason play, as well as his challengers (Isaiah Pead and Zac Stacy) failing to capitalize on their opportunities. Brown, while facing some unexpected competition from fellow ball carrier Chris Polk, is primed to see an uptick in usage in what is presumed to be a run-heavy scheme. For a one-year setting, both players are likely to be more coveted than the divisive Stewart.
With that said, I would still aggressively target Stewart in your dispersal draft. I’ve been of the belief that even though 2013 might bring about more lean times in terms of inconsistent usage, the future remains bright. It’s doubtful the aging DeAngelo Williams will be retained for 2014, potentially affording true lead-back status for J-Stew. At this point next year, I believe this answer would look a lot different.
2. I have a ton of quality running backs, including Arian Foster, Doug Martin, Trent Richardson, Daryl Richardson, David Wilson and Bryce Brown. I am set at quarterback with Cam Newton, Matt Ryan and Josh Freeman, and I think I am set at tight end with Jared Cook and Jermaine Gresham. My wide receivers, however, could us some help. My question is which running backs should I trade and who should I aim to get in return? – Ryan in CA
There are two different roads you could traverse here, and both incidentally come down to your definition of risk management. If you’re in win-now mode (which it appears your team is), it might make sense to divest your roster of young, unproven assets who would nevertheless fetch a large return on the trade market. On the flip side, you could deal proven talent for an even higher return, potentially mortgaging your designs of immediate victory.
The two key players I’m referring to here are the Giants’ David Wilson and the Texans’ Arian Foster. Wilson is the quintessence of the first type of trade, as despite his talent there are no guarantees he’ll get the requisite workload to be a fantasy star. The looming presence of touchdown vulture Andre Brown only serves to further dim Wilson’s budding star.
If you’d prefer to trade a proven player, the obvious choice is Houston’s Arian Foster. Despite my status as DLF’s resident “Foster Hater,” it’s hard to deny his fantasy prowess. Over the past three years, Foster has averaged 24.8 touches per game, to go with an astounding 15.7 touchdowns per year. When healthy, Foster offers RB1 upside that can be matched by only a select handful of ball carriers.
Despite all that, I’d still choose to attempt to trade Foster. Recent news has suggested that his back injury is worse than previously though and that he might not even be ready for the start of the regular season – as of this date, he has yet to even take a single rep in training camp. Regardless, his name alone still carries weight with owners craving an upgrade at the running back position.
Though he’s perhaps set to drop a little bit, Foster’s ADP still has him as a late first round selection. As such, there are a variety of players you should target, including Demaryius Thomas, Brandon Marshall and Randall Cobb. However, you might be better served to get a “lesser” receiver (ex. Andre Johnson or Roddy White) and couple him with a “safety blanket” running back like Frank Gore. This way you’ll improve the depth of your pass catchers while also setting yourself up for a playoff run this year.
3. Why is Tavon Austin so highly ranked in dynasty league rookie drafts (top three usually) when he has to compete with Chris Givens and Brian Quick? Wouldn’t this relatively strong receiving corps dilute his value somewhat, especially since he’s on the smallish side, not to mention the coach (I think) said something along the lines of spreading the passes out? – Leech in Toronto
Though I haven’t provided a set of rankings to illustrate my viewpoint, I’m right here with you. I think when dynasty owners consider Tavon Austin, they’re counting on a faster, quicker version of Wes Welker who will be targeted relentlessly, and who can also provide return game production as well. It’s this type of “pie in the sky” mentality that has seen Austin routinely taken as a high rookie selection, often times as the number one overall pick.
The problem with that is it ignores the scope of the Rams’ offense. Though I don’t see Brian Quick making a huge impact, new addition Jared Cook is primed to see his fair share of targets, and there’s also the three-headed running back monster to consider. Moreover, quarterback Sam Bradford has yet to break 4,000 yards passing, and hasn’t shown the ability to support a true WR1. Suffice it to say, the odds are stacked against Austin turning into a locked-and-loaded, elite PPR asset anytime soon.
Perhaps the biggest reason I’m not sold on Austin’s immediate ascension to fantasy stardom is the presence of sophomore receiver Chris Givens. Despite an extremely efficient rookie season, Givens is being woefully under-drafted by the dynasty masses, as he’s currently being selected in the tenth round – that’s nearly five full rounds behind Austin. This is unexplainable to me, as Givens clearly earned his stripes during Danny Amendola’s injury-related absence in 2012, showing an increasing ability to run all the routes and exist as the passing game’s top threat. As hyperbolic as it sounds, I’d rather have Givens than Austin, and that’s without even taking their relative costs into account.
Therefore, I have a hard time advocating using a top selection on Austin. I would rather draft DeAndre Hopkins, Gio Bernard or Eddie Lacy before him, and strong arguments can be made for Le’Veon Bell, Montee Ball and Cordarrelle Patterson as well. I could see Austin eventually settling in as a weekly play, but more of a mid-to-low end WR2 variety than an elite option. With the top overall pick, you should expect more.
4. I was offered the following trade (which has since been revoked and is now off the table): I give Demaryius Thomas and a 2014 3rd round pick for Hakeem Nicks, Christine Michael and a 2014 1st round pick. My question is should I have accepted when I had the chance? I hesitated because I finished second last year, and feel like I’m in a win now mode. – Evan in NJ
It looks like your subconscious saved you on this one. To me, this is yet another classic case of quality versus quantity. The quality rested on your side of the trade, as Demaryius Thomas is right there in the discussion for the top five overall dynasty receivers. On your prospective trade partner’s side resides the quantity, where you’re bombarded with a tantalizing blend of erstwhile top-end talent and future potential.
However, looking at it with a metaphorical “meat and potatoes” perspective, his dinner plate is only half full. Hakeem Nicks has proven skill, but just hasn’t been able to stay healthy. He’s still rounding into form in training camp, and there aren’t any guarantees he’ll return to his previously transcendent form. Rounding out his end of the deal is a talented player with no guarantees of future production (Christine Michael), as well as the definition of a lottery ticket, a future draft pick. This combination is merely an appetizer to the entrée that is your end of the bargain – if you’re giving up a stud, you should get a stud in return.
With Thomas, you have that stud. He rebounded from a 2011 Achilles’ tear to take the league by storm last year, finishing as the overall PPR WR5. His blend of size and speed makes him nearly impossible to cover one-on-one, and his supporting cast (including Eric Decker, Wes Welker and Julius Thomas) should ensure he’ll receive a healthy dose of single coverage. Considering how close you came to winning it all last year, not pulling the trigger was the right move. Sometimes the best trades are the ones you don’t make.
5. I was wondering what’s the best way to deal with a league champion? It seems they become arrogant after winning and only want to make trades which heavily favor them. Also, I am always leery of trading with league champions for fear of making a mistake that will them even stronger. – Rich in CA
You should never eschew trade talks with an owner because of his (or her) prior successes. The way you choose to manage your team should be independent of the prospects of the league’s other franchises – strengthen your own roster any means possible. If that means potentially making your opposition better, so be it. As long as you’re giving yourself the best odds of winning, that’s all that matters.
It’s true that, barring something fluky, league champions usually have unparalleled depth, allowing them to trade out of multiple positions of strength. In some instances, they’re afforded the luxury of parting with bench players in return for an upgrade to their starting rosters. This probably comes across as a “lopsided” trade, but if the talent is there, a good deal is a good deal.
As long as you’re improving your team, there’s no reason to get lost in the particulars. If your league champion refuses to make a fair deal then it’s likely he’s passing up an opportunity to get better, forgetting what helped him win it all to begin with. In that case, sometimes the moves other teams make (or don’t make) can be just as meaningful to your future outlook as what you do.
Mirroring the nature of the NFL, dynasty football is a transient venture. As such, future outcomes won’t necessarily reflect what happened in the past. If a league champion chooses to apply an arrogant attitude to his trade talks, he does so at his own peril.
Follow me on Twitter @EDH_27
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