The Other Rookie Tight End

When it comes to the rookie tight ends we’ve hyped to some extent, at some point so far this off-season, the list reads almost like the lyrics to Rudolph the Red-Nosed Reindeer:

“We’ve got Eifert, and Kelce, and Escobar and Reed.  Sudfeld and Ertz, and Toilolo and Willson.”

Okay, so that doesn’t rhyme and the syllables don’t match up (and no, I don’t care), but you get the point – it’s a large group that’s far from exclusive.  Yet for all the fantasy football articles and Tweets I’ve read, outside of a few blurbs during OTA’s, there’s been little to no conversation about the 49ers’ Vance McDonald, and honestly, I don’t get it.  I say enough of this tomfoolery – it’s time to get educated on one of the hidden gems of the 2013 draft class.

The first and arguably most important thing you need to know is that McDonald showed enough talent to be selected in the second round by noted offensive guru Jim Harbaugh.  In fact, San Francisco actually traded up six spots to ensure they were able to snare him with the 55^th overall pick.  Given Harbaugh’s hits on recent early round choices (Aldon Smith, Colin Kaepernick, Chris Culliver, Kendall Hunter and LaMichael James), this is an important distinction to make.

It’s not hard to see why McDonald was so highly coveted.  First, let’s consider his performance at the 2013 NFL Combine.  Despite measuring in at 6’4” and 267 pounds, McDonald nonetheless showed superior speed and agility, finishing in the 75^th percentile in the 40-yard dash (4.69 seconds) and 68^th percentile in the three-cone drill (7.08 seconds).  Piling on, McDonald actually set a Combine record for the tight end position on the bench press, busting out a mind-boggling 31 reps at 225 pounds.

So when you consider his college film (shown below), it’s unsurprising that his strength is evident.  He’s an absolute bull to take down in the open field, and you’ll notice that most defenders try to tackle him low.  The few brave souls who dared to go for the knockout blow when the big tight end had a full head of steam wound up pin balling away like McDonald was made of rubber.  He still needs to learn how to better lower his shoulder and utilize a stiff-arm, but these are things that can be taught.

Click here for a good look at McDonald.

Though it’s true McDonald didn’t put up robust college statistics, Rice University hasn’t exactly been synonymous with an air-raid offense over the past few years.  In fact, since McDonald joined the Owls in 2009, they’ve passed for a miniscule 10,229 yards – that equates to 2,557 yards per year, and only 209 per game.  But don’t be fooled – despite his low totals for receptions and yards, McDonald remained an integral part of the offense.

Continuing this thought, if you’ve read any of my recent work here at DLF, you know I don’t put much stock in raw statistical data.  What I really want to know is, relatively speaking, what does a player bring to, or take away from his offense?  Though it’s true that the college game can’t be directly compared to the NFL due to a massive talent disparity, gauging players’ relative efficiencies transcends the level of competition, providing a universal basis of comparison.  The results are summarized in the table below:

*Study utilizes standard WCOFF scoring, with yearly averages weighted appropriately

PPA, or fantasy points per attempt, is a metric used to describe a quarterback’s passing efficiency, and can be calculated by dividing a signal caller’s fantasy points from passing by his passing attempts.  This metric can also be further refined to show a quarterback’s PPA when targeting only one player.  Does the pass catcher in question bring out the best in his quarterback, or did he serve only to suppress his signal caller’s average efficiency?

With McDonald, he performed above and beyond the scope of the passing offense each of his four seasons in college.  Though the numbers show a large deviation from year to year, this can be easily explained by yearly touchdown totals.  If you combine his 2009 and 2012 seasons, McDonald only scored two total touchdowns on 68 targets, “good” for a score every 34 targets.  Nevertheless, when the Rice quarterbacks targeted McDonald, their numbers were slightly improved.

2010 saw the complete opposite effect, as McDonald scored an insane eight touchdowns on 48 targets.  In other words, every time a pass was thrown in his direction, there was a 16.7% likelihood it would result in six points.  His signal callers produced an eye-popping 1.08 points every time they targeted McDonald, which on par with a “Brady to Gronk” level of quarterback/tight end symbiosis, and more than likely unsustainable.

2011 stands as the median and likely baseline, as McDonald produced five touchdowns on 78 targets (one score per 15.6 targets), bringing about levels of efficiency 30.4% greater from his quarterbacks.  All told, over four years McDonald made his signal callers 43.1% more efficient, with his touchdown dependence standing at a slightly above average rate of one score per every 13 targets.  Suffice it to say, even if his trips to the end zone were erratic, overall McDonald remained a supremely efficient weapon.

It’s this uptick in efficiency that McDonald is expected to provide to the ‘Niners passing offense.  With the injury to star wideout Michael Crabtree, there now exists a pass-catching void in the Bay Area.  Stud tight end Vernon Davis and aging receiver Anquan Boldin appear to be the top two targets in the passing game, and the recently signed Austin Collie offers some intrigue if he can stay healthy, but the rest of the roster is a wasteland “has-beens,” “not-quite-there-yet’s” and “never-will-be’s.”  Can the rookie expect to contribute immediately?

It’s rumored that McDonald will get a crack at filling the void of the departed Delanie Walker, who has functioned as the team’s TE2 over the past few years.  Contrary to popular belief, this isn’t a position completely defined by the unglamorous task of blocking – there’s some legitimate upside here.  When quarterback Colin Kaepernick ascended to the starting job in Week 11, he targeted Walker 3.2 times per game (through the playoffs), a value only slightly off the pace of Davis’ rate of 3.8 targets per game.

While Davis will likely see an uptick in usage, Crabtree’s injury frees up an additional 9.3 targets per game.  Boldin stands to emerge as the WR1 of the offense, but this offensive makeover means that the opportunities should be there for McDonald to produce.  Needing only to beat out former undrafted free agent Garrett Celek, a fantasy impact could, and should occur sooner rather than later.

Despite all this, McDonald is still being overlooked in dynasty circles.  Consider the following table, which utilizes the July ADP data to show where the 2013 rookie tight ends are being drafted in startups:

Tyler Eifert is the consensus top player at the position, and is subsequently being drafted as a TE1.  Following that, however, there’s plenty of room for debate.  Travis Kelce and Zach Ertz are trending right now, but neither is a lock for significant action in 2013.  Jordan Reed and Gavin Escobar are virtually certain to be non-factors off the bat, with Reed still raw from a collegiate position change and Escobar stuck behind the ageless Jason Witten.

Following them up is McDonald, who’s being drafted, on average, in the late 18^th round.  To me, he’s an absolute steal there as the overall TE30, especially considering where’s he’s being selected relative to his fellow rookies.  I believe his combination of talent and situation trumps that of all his compatriots, save for Eifert, and his low cost is the cherry on top of a delicious sleeper sundae.

I know I’m on an island, but I have McDonald ranked as the second best tight end in the 2013 class.  Given his inherent skill, as well as an enviable draft location, I would have no problem selecting him several rounds earlier than his current price tag dictates, but fortunately you don’t have to – the dynasty masses haven’t caught on to his appeal just yet.  Don’t make the same mistake – after all, as we remember from that famous song, the last reindeer mentioned turned out to be the best one of all.

Follow me on Twitter @EDH_27

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Eric Hardter

Contributor at Dynasty League Football

Eric is a Boston College chemistry grad school survivor with a minor in dynasty football. He prefers to utilize both statistics and sarcasm whenever possible, believes in process over results and thinks "Hot Takes" are the scourge of the fantasy landscape.

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