The DLF Mailbag

Eric Hardter

streater

Welcome to the latest edition of the weekly mailbag.

Send me your questions using the DLF Mailbag Form and I’ll include the best in future articles.  Remember the guidelines to have the best chance at seeing your question get posted:

1.) Dynasty questions only, no start/sit questions

2.) Help me help you by providing sufficient information about your league (e.g. line-up requirements/PPR or non-PPR/etc.), and include your first name and where you’re from.

3.) Your chance of getting your question answered is inversely proportional to the length of the question.

Let’s get to it!

1.) It’s less than a month after our start up draft I am already down four receivers due to injuries or suspensions. I still have Calvin Johnson and Hakeem Nicks with either DeAndre Hopkins or Michael Floyd as my WR3, but we can start up to four receivers.  There are several interesting free agents still available, including Rod Streater, Julian Edelman and Stephen Hill.  At $10 per pick up, should I invest in one or two of these WR’s?Krcil in SD

First things first, in the melodious words of the Barden Bellas during the fictional ICCA finals, “it ain’t about the money!”  $10 per pickup is a steep price to pay for sure, but these are players you could wind up rostering for years upon years.  Cut out some coupons, nix the Starbucks for a week and buy Malt O’ Meal brand Marshmallow Mateys instead of Lucky Charms – that ought to be good for a transaction or two!

When you’re done pinching your pennies, I’d make a move on both the Raiders’ Rod Streater and the Jets’ Stephen Hill as soon as you can.  This pair of 2012 rookies has been making waves in their respective training camps and could very well serve as the focal points of their passing offenses.  Let’s start with the case for Streater.

Despite being undrafted last year, the former Temple Owl saw plenty of action as a rookie, even leading the team in the yards-per-catch statistic (15.0).  He has an above average combination of size (6’3”, 200 pounds) and speed (4.46 seconds in the 40-yard dash), and his intermediate route-running ability meshes perfectly with the noodle-arm of quarterback Matt Flynn.  With the off-season departures of Darrius Heyward-Bey and Brandon Myers, Streater could very well function as the top target in the passing game.

Hill saw less success as a freshman, but nevertheless offers up a tantalizing blend of athleticism.  He’s bigger and faster than Streater, and can also jump out of the stadium (39.5 inch vertical leap).  Given the talent vacuum in the Big Apple (Jeremy Kerley and Santonio Holmes headline the pass-catching corps), Hill should see a steady diet of targets.  If the big-armed, accurate Geno Smith wins the starting quarterback competition, it’s also reasonable to expect a few Victor Cruz-esque big play touchdowns as well.

Julian Edelman would be a nice player to have, but given his injury history and the competition at receiver in New England, the pick-up fee just doesn’t render him as “sponge-worthy” (Google Seinfeld if that reference eludes you).  He’s well behind the other two in the free agent pecking order, and would be a bit superfluous should you snag one or both of them.  I’d grab Streater and Hill, and save the rest of my money for a well-deserved lager or two.

2.) I am kind of re-tooling at the tight end position this season. Right now I have Jordan Cameron and Rob Housler as my top prospects on the roster, with Dennis Pitta on IR. I am looking to keep one more prospect between Julius Thomas, Ladarius Green and D.J. Williams. Which of those three do you view as most promising going forward? Thoughts?Tyler in TX

You were undoubtedly part of the overflowing bandwagon of Dennis Pitta enthusiasts (myself included) who expected him to leap into the top tier of tight ends in 2013.  While we’re all still likely having a bit of a Pitta pity party, you at least seem to have reasonable backup options in both Rob Housler and Jordan Cameron, who could both push for TE1 value this year.  However, given their relative uncertainties, I think it makes sense to grab the guy with the greatest likelihood of immediate production – the Broncos’ Julius Thomas.

Ladarius Green is an intriguing prospect due to his (stop me if you’ve heard this before) elite size/speed combination, but will remain stuck behind the venerable Antonio Gates until he retires.  Similarly, DJ Williams of the Packers is well behind starter Jermichael Finley, and is no lock for future fantasy prowess with fellow tight end Andrew Quarless (as well as whoever else Green Bay might draft) on board, should Finley decide to pursue greener pastures in 2014.  Both Green and Williams are good long-term stashes, but are also stuck in poor short-term situations with no guarantees of ever panning out.

Thomas, on the other hand, appears to be making his mark in Broncos’ training camp.  With injuries limiting Jacob Tamme and Joel Dreessen, Thomas has, at least temporarily, ascended to the starting position.  He showed well in Denver’s first preseason game versus a stout 49ers’ defense (four receptions for 35 yards), and has athleticism at the position that neither Tamme nor Dreessen can match.  He has the skills and the opportunity, and in a Peyton Manning-led offense could very well flirt with high-end TE2 numbers as soon as this year.

3.) In my 12-team, non-PPR league I own Peyton Manning, drafted Russell Wilson last season and was fortunate to acquire Colin Kaepernick before he blew up. I’m weak at running back and would like to move one of these quarterbacks – which one should I move and what’s a reasonable return? Each team only has to start one running back, with a maximum of two.Jeff in OH

In a 12-team setting, quarterbacks aren’t quite as valuable as they would be in a larger format.  With that said, this effect is somewhat mitigated by the devaluation of the running back position, with a maximum of 24 ball carriers starting in any given week.  Given that, as well as the fact you’ve effectively cornered the market with three of the top-ten dynasty signal callers, means you should be able to command a reasonable return.

Given how closely the trio is ranked in terms of both projected immediate and long-term potential, I’d choose to part with Peyton Manning.  With Denver likely to move to a base offense featuring three wide receivers, it’s entirely possible he’ll have the highest output in 2013, but he’s still a 37-year old quarterback.  Russell Wilson and Colin Kaepernick should afford elite upside both now, and for the next 8-10 years.

The next question regards your trading timeline.  Manning’s age is going to limit your pool of prospective trade partners, as he’ll only appeal to contenders – as such, I’d attempt to trade him sooner rather than later.  We’re at the point in the off-season where just about anyone can convince themselves that if X, Y and Z happen (along with a rub of a lucky rabbit’s foot or two), they can compete.  Once the metaphorical bullets start flying, however, owners will get a better sense of whether they have what it takes to make a charge for the championship – this could preclude you from being able to train Manning to rebuilding squads.

With all that said, it’s not too likely you’ll be able to get strong young talent in return for an aging signal caller.  As such, I’d target veteran running backs who should come at a relative discount compared to their youthful brethren – this includes players like Frank Gore, Maurice Jones-Drew and Steven Jackson.  Any of those three players has sizable short-term value and would be a solid addition to your starting lineup.

4.) I’m in a 14-team half-PPR league where we only start one player at each position, but have three FLEX players as well. I was offered Michael Floyd and 2014 third round rookie/FA pick for Ryan Mathews.  I’m very torn on this one – thoughts?Ben in SD

Though deeper league settings always make things more challenging, your flexible lineup basically allows you to shift your positional bias in whatever way you deem fit.  You’re not pigeonholed into any particular draft strategy based on necessity and can essentially valuate players uninhibited by league requirements.  So when you say you’re still on the fence about this decision, I’m truthfully rather surprised.

Coming off an injury-plagued 2012 campaign, the Chargers’ Ryan Mathews needed to generate some kind of positive buzz to impress the new regime in San Diego.  Unfortunately, the opposite appears to have occurred – plodder Ronnie Brown was re-signed, and former Patriot Danny Woodhead was brought in to assume the bulk of the third down responsibilities.  One can argue, rather accurately in fact, the bulk of off-season praise has been heaped upon Woodhead, not the former first round pick.  Owners of Mathews appear to be desperately clinging to the long-gone specter of his 2011 season, haunted be the likelihood that he’s doubtful to ever repeat it.

On the other side of the fence sits rising sophomore receiver Michael Floyd, Arizona’s first round selection in the 2012 NFL Draft.  Though the Cardinals’ quarterback situation was, to put it mildly, an unenviable one last season, Floyd still managed to make his signal callers look better than they really were.  With improvement across the board, including coaching and personnel, Floyd seems likely to raise his game even higher in 2013.

The masses still appear to be in favor of Mathews, as evidenced by the fact his average draft position in July is 18 spots higher than that of Floyd, but these are two players moving in opposite directions.  Since January, Mathews has seen his ADP fall two rounds, while Floyd has seen a bump of a full round.  Trend spotting is a vital part of the stock market that is dynasty football, and we’re clearly looking at a classic case of a “buy” versus a “sell.”

For these reasons, I’d accept and I’d do so quickly.  Floyd is a player on the rise and getting a mid-round pick as well is just the cherry on top.  Mathews’ stock is akin to a sinking ship, and as noble as it may be to want to go down with it, you’re being offered a life raft just in the nick of time.

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eric hardter