The DLF Mailbag
Welcome to the latest edition of the weekly mailbag.
Send me your questions using the DLF Mailbag Form and I’ll include the best in future articles. Remember the guidelines to have the best chance at seeing your question get posted:
1.) Dynasty questions only, no start/sit questions
2.) Help me help you by providing sufficient information about your league (e.g. line-up requirements/PPR or non-PPR/etc.), and include your first name and where you’re from.
3.) Your chance of getting your question answered is inversely proportional to the length of the question.
Let’s get to it!
1.) I am in a ten-team PPR keeper league where we start two quarterbacks, two running backs, three wide receivers and a tight end. I have the difficult task of choosing four of the following five potential keepers: Aaron Rodgers, Matt Ryan, Arian Foster, Marshawn Lynch and Jimmy Graham. A few other notes are that passing touchdowns are worth six points, and keepers are your first four picks of the draft. – Bobby in MI
Since there’s essentially no reward for shrewd drafting (i.e. the ability to keep a diamond in the rough at a lower cost), it seems prudent to adopt more of a “best player available” type of approach. Furthermore, with only 40 players being kept across the league, your strategy can essentially bridge the gap between dynasty and re-draft mentalities. All told, given your keeper rules, I think it makes the most sense to simply ask yourself the following question: which players are most worthy of selections in the first four rounds?
Given the heavy quarterback bias, I wouldn’t hesitate to keep both Aaron Rodgers and Matt Ryan. According to July’s ADP data, both are viewed as top-nine quarterback selections and given the scoring system, a reasonable case could be made for both players being first-round selections. The pair of Rodgers and Ryan should afford you a big advantage relative to the field, both for 2013 and the next several years.
The other obvious name as I see it is the Saints’ Jimmy Graham. This has been an off-season of upheaval at the tight end position, with the following players currently sidelined: Rob Gronkowski, Aaron Hernandez, Dennis Pitta and Heath Miller. There’s a power vacuum atop the tight end hierarchy and with a return to health (as well as the return of head coach Sean Payton), it’s more than reasonable to expect Graham to function as the top option, and weekly positional advantage, at the position.
The last spot comes down to a pair of aging running backs: Marshawn Lynch and Arian Foster. As only 20 ball carriers will be starting on a weekly basis in your league setting, there isn’t a great need to keep both players, hence the priority placed on the selections in the previous paragraphs. In fact, given their current trajectories, it’s no longer reasonable to expect anything more than one to two years of production from either. Given that, I want the player who’s likely to perform better in 2013, so I’m going to deviate from the groupthink mentality and advise you to hang onto Lynch.
With the postponement of his DUI hearing until 2014, Lynch actually heads into the season with less baggage than Foster, who’s still dealing with injuries and has yet to participate in training camp. With the loss of stud receiver Percy Harvin, any belief of Seattle transitioning to a dynamic passing offense can effectively be quashed, and Lynch should return as the ball-hog in the backfield. He has less competition for carries than Foster (Robert Turbin/Christine Michael versus the more established Ben Tate), and plays for an offense than ran the ball 57% of the time in 2012. With a better supporting cast, and stronger play last year (5.0 YPC versus 4.1 for Foster), I think Lynch should be your final keeper selection.
2.) I’m looking to upgrade my tight end position as Antonio Gates and Owen Daniels are getting older. We start up to four receivers (and only one tight end), so I’m planning on taking Ryan Broyles at 3.01. I still have pick 3.11, so how do you rank Jordan Cameron, Rob Housler, Zach Ertz and Travis Kelce, who are all available, but may not all be there at 3.11? Do you like any of them enough to take them over Broyles? – Sean in FL
First things first, I would definitely grab Ryan Broyles over any of the tight ends you’re considering. There exists a monstrous void opposite all-world receiver Calvin Johnson and Broyles may very well be the player who fills it. As the potential WR2 in a pass-first option, I could easily see Broyles starting for you down the line, if not as soon as this year.
In terms of who to select with your second pick, I would prefer Arizona’s Rob Housler to the rest of the lot. Despite truly atrocious quarterback play, he really started to come on at the end of the 2012 season with two-thirds of his receptions occurring during the year’s final seven games. With better coaching (Bruce Arians), quarterbacking (Carson Palmer) and improved play from the offensive line, expect the Cardinals offense to be much more potent in 2013.
Slightly behind Housler sits the Browns’ Jordan Cameron, whose potential was summarized by DLF’s own Steve Wyremski. Though expectations are high due to the newly installed, tight end friendly offense courtesy of Norval Turner, Cameron’s value is more predicated on potential than proven production. With only 26 career receptions, he has a long way to go to match the hype, but is nonetheless locked and loaded as Cleveland’s starter.
The two rookies, Zach Ertz and Travis Kelce, sit well below Housler and Cameron. Few rookie tight ends are ready to contribute immediately and Ertz and Kelce are both facing competition for fantasy relevance. However, if the two veterans get snapped up before your pick at 3.11, I’d value Ertz slightly more than Kelce. Eagles’ head coach Chip Kelly knows him well from his years in the Pac-12, and Ertz has a much lengthier collegiate resume in Stanford’s pro-style offense. If all else fails though, Kelce isn’t a bad consolation prize at all.
3.) In my 12-team PPR league we start five skill players (RB, WR, TE) with no position specific spots, but we can only carry four more skill players on the bench (nine max RB/WR/TE’s per roster). I have Ray Rice, and I have been holding Bernard Pierce on my bench as a handcuff, but with such short benches I am thinking of trying to acquire someone like Michael Floyd or Rueben Randle. Thoughts? – Scott in OR
Given how shallow your league requirements are (108 total running backs, receivers and tight ends will be rostered league-wide), production must trump potential out of necessity. So even though Baltimore’s Bernard Pierce is an intriguing player who showed well in limited action as a rookie, I don’t believe he’s a great stash given your league format. Starter Ray Rice is signed relatively cheaply through the 2016 season, and is once again set to lead the team in touches. He has only missed three games in his career (none in the past four seasons), so it’s entirely possible Pierce’s first starting gig will come in a different locale. Staring down the barrel of a mere 10-12 touches per game, with limited abilities in the passing game, it’s a tough sell to view Pierce as anything more than a player with FLEX-level upside.
Because of this, I wouldn’t hesitate to trade him for either Rueben Randle or Michael Floyd. Randle posted elite metrics during his rookie season, and is said to be the star of Giants’ training camp. He’s been running with the first team, and has apparently already shown the ability to beat double teams. Given starter Hakeem Nicks’ extensive injury history (as well as the fact he might be playing elsewhere in 2014), Randle could see starters’ reps sooner rather than later – at worst, he should function as the third option in the passing game, playing in all three-wide sets.
Though Floyd’s efficiency numbers were well behind Randle’s last year, he also had to deal with the Cardinals’ afore-mentioned passing “attack.” He’ll be in a dogfight with Larry Fitzgerald, Andre Roberts and Rob Housler for targets, but has the talent to emerge as a WR3 in 2013. Given that, I’ll take the comparative likelihoods of his and Randle’s immediate fantasy success over that of Pierce.
4.) I have been offered Josh Gordon and Shane Vereen for Demaryius Thomas. I like the trade, but am concerned as my WR2 was Percy Harvin, and Gordon has the two-game suspension. My next best receivers are rookies and my top three running backs are Doug Martin, Lamar Miller and Chris Ivory. Should I do the deal? – Mike in SC
In terms of value, the deal seems fair on the surface. Both Josh Gordon and Shane Vereen have seen dramatic increases in value during the off-season, as both are going in the first six rounds of startup drafts. However, even despite that, I’d still hit the “reject” button, using two main criteria as my rationale.
The first is you’re losing the best player in the deal – Demaryius Thomas. Unless you’re absolutely hurting for quality starters and depth, my general rule of thumb is if you’re giving up a stud player, you need to get one in return – if not, the deal needs to involve definitive overpay. Both Gordon and Vereen are intriguing players with excellent skill sets, but neither could be considered elite right now. To me, this just isn’t enough of a return to give up on a top-five dynasty receiver.
Secondly, continuing that line of thinking, both Gordon and Vereen’s respective values are still speculative. Gordon had a great rookie season and looks the part and Vereen has showed well in limited action, but Thomas is an elite-level proven commodity. If neither Gordon nor Vereen (or even just one of the two) hits their assumed potential, your roster is going to take a big hit.
So in a vacuum, the deal doesn’t make a whole lot of sense to me. In practicality, I like it even less, as I don’t think it makes your lineup better. Gordon would slot in as a starter, but Vereen may not prove to be an upgrade on Chris Ivory, who currently functions as your RB3. To me, it would make more sense to capitalize on Lamar Miller’s hype and target a lesser receiver/running back combo (ex. Vereen plus a TY Hilton or Kenny Britt type player), thereby enhancing your lineup while still hanging onto your best pass catcher.
5.) How do you rank Alshon Jeffery compared to Mike Wallace long term? I think both are somewhat unknown with Wallace on a new team and Jeffery still new to the league. I have rostered Jeffery on my college and current roster for four years now, so am I overvaluing him since I’ve wanted/expected him to be good for so long? And how do you compare current production to future value? – JB in TX
Often times when dynasty owners are presented with a choice between two players of a similar caliber, it’s routine for the ultimate decision to come down to gut response. Ideally, we would all be able to maintain a Vulcan attitude with regards to the perennial venture of roster maintenance, but such possibilities will always remain more theoretical than practical. The longer we keep players rostered, the more we grow attached to them – in this case, your valuation of the Bears’ Alshon Jeffery largely stems from this type of devotion.
However, when it comes to the possibility of significant roster enhancement, we shouldn’t let loyalty operate as the driving force behind our decision-making rationale. So despite your perspective on Jeffery, I view this as an opportunity for you to make your team better. I wouldn’t hesitate to accept this opportunity to acquire Mike Wallace.
I first touched on Wallace when I debated his merits with fellow DLF author Mark Rockwell. Summed up, he has proven WR1-level ability during the course of his short career (he turned 27 only a few days ago), and due to the gross misuse of his talents by Pittsburgh offensive coordinator Todd Haley in 2012, actually benefits from a chance in scenery. Speed kills in the NFL, and Wallace has plenty to burn – with a re-calibration back to his strengths, I expect him to once-again ascend to WR1-level ranks.
With Jeffery, it’s a little tougher to gauge his long-term viability because the Bears are a team in flux. With the addition of new head coach Marc Trestman, as well as the contract status of quarterback Jay Cutler, Chicago’s offense could very well be facing significant upheaval over the course of the next few years. Moreover, with target hog Brandon Marshall is in town (signed through 2014), as well as freshly inked tight end Martellus Bennett and pass-catching running back Matt Forte, it’s tough to see Jeffery producing robust fantasy statistics for the next few years.
So when we talk about Jeffery’s future, we’re likely looking years down the line. Additionally, even then his rookie data wasn’t suggestive of a rise to elite production. Given that, coupled with Wallace’s immediate, and proven, fantasy prowess, it’s an easy call for me to push emotion aside and click “accept.”
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