Dynasty Rookie Spotlight: Josh Boyce

It seemingly happens every year. A team drafts two players that play the same position in the same draft. The player drafted later then goes on to have a better rookie season and subsequently, career. Recent examples include Mike Williams overtaking Arrelious Benn, Stevan Ridley beating out Shane Vereen and Chris Givens winning the job over Brian Quick (although this situation has yet to play itself out fully). This year, I believe the pairing will again come from the New England Patriots. I expect Josh Boyce to beat out Aaron Dobson, and have a solid rookie season and a good career.

In the 2013 NFL Draft, the Patriots used their second second round pick (#59 overall) to select Dobson, out of Marshall in the Conference-USA. The selection surprised some, as receivers like Keenan Allen were still available. Two rounds later, at 102 overall, they selected Boyce out of TCU. Obviously, by virtue of their respective selections, the Patriots liked Dobson more than Boyce. But in dynasty football, we can’t just accept that at face value. We’re about looking for value. In this case, I think Boyce will out produce Dobson, and he’s going much later than him. According to Ryan McDowell’s ADP data, Dobson is being selected as the #53 receiver off the board on average. In comparison, Josh Boyce is being picked as the #83 receiver off the board, among the likes of Kenny Stills, Marquess Wilson and Joseph Morgan. I think that’s way out of line. In the wake of the loss of Wes Welker, Brandon Lloyd and Aaron Hernandez, Boyce has a massive opportunity that he’s fully capable of taking advantage of.

Let’s take a look at why I prefer him to Dobson.

It’s no secret that although the Patriots have built a juggernaut over the past decade, they have notoriously struggled with drafting wide receivers. Their misses include Bethel Johnson in the second round of the 2003 draft, Chad Jackson in the second round of the 2006 draft, Brandon Tate in the third round of the 2009 draft and Taylor Price in the third round of the 2010 draft. They haven’t found real success at the wide receiver position since they picked Deion Branch and David Givens in the 2002 draft, eleven years ago.

I don’t pretend to be an armchair scout. I freely admit I don’t really know what I’m looking at when I watch tape. So while I think the Patriots front office is much better at their job than I would be, I do believe that their misses at wide receiver have a theme. The big name busts were all selected in the first three rounds of the draft.  Rather than being selected for their college production, it seems they were drafted for their physical prowess. All of them ran a 4.4 or better 40-yard dash. Additionally, none of them ever produced even a 900+ yard season in college, let alone a 1,000+ season. Each of the busts’ best season in college:

Bethel Johnson	40 catches	718 yards
Chad Jackson	88 catches	900 yards
Brandon Tate	25 catches	479 yards
Taylor Price	56 catches	784 yards

Aaron Dobson seems to fit the Patriots’ bust mold to a T. At 6’3” and 210 pounds, he ran a sub 4.4 40, clocking at 4.37. The Patriots selected him in the top 60 overall. However, like the rest of their busts, he didn’t produce well in college. Last year, the Marshall Thundering Herd were one of the best passing teams in college football. They ranked fifth in passing yardage, slinging for almost 4,400 yards. Despite this aerial attack, Dobson wasn’t even able to crack 700 yards, finishing with just 679 – that works out to a very subpar 15% share of yards. He was the third best receiver on his own team in terms of both catches and yards. Despite standing 6’3”, he only caught a ghastly three touchdowns out of the 39 Marshall threw for, finishing fourth on his team. Additionally, when looking at his four year college production, it seems Dobson plateaued. From his sophomore season on, his yardage total was 689, 668 and 679. So to review, in Dobson, we have a receiver who wasn’t dominant on his own college team, and didn’t seem to grow his game as he got older, instead plateauing against college competition. I’m sure there have been some receivers who turned out to be good after being the third best option on their own team, but history dictates it’s a poor bet. I am fully aware no trend lasts forever, and just because Johnson, Jackson, Tate and Price failed, it does not make it any more likely that Dobson will fail. However, when looking at his production, the odds do not seem to be great that he will become a good NFL wide receiver, independent of previous Patriot busts.

I just ripped into the Patriots’ recent history of drafting wide receivers. So, why would I want to draft Boyce?

I think Boyce is different than recent wide receivers the Patriots have drafted. It’s true that like the others, he is an athlete. However, much moreso than other picks, he is a great athlete. Despite a broken foot, Boyce absolutely dominated the combine. At 5’11” and a rocked out 206 lbs, he ran a 4.38 40 and bench-pressed 22 reps, flashing a rare combination of speed and strength. He also finished in the top three in the broad jump, three cone drill, and 60 yard shuttle. He was also more productive. He didn’t crack the 1,000 yard barrier, but he came close, finishing his sophomore season with 998 yards. He went for 891 yards in his junior season, which accounted for 28.5% of his team’s share. He led TCU in receiving each of his three years, even outgaining Jeremy Kerley, who I happen to think is a decent NFL WR held back by Mark Sanchez in his freshman year.

With all the turmoil and change surrounding the Patriots, there is an opportunity for Boyce to step up. Tom Brady demands his receivers run good routes this is one of Boyce’s strengths. Pre-draft scouting reports often cited his route-running as a strength. These reports have continued into training camp, with reporters praising his route-running as well as his footwork in and out of breaks. Early reports also don’t have Boyce limited to merely the slot. His versatility, strength, speed and overall athletic ability make him a threat on a variety of routes, both in the slot and outside. I think Boyce could remind people of a more explosive Antonio Brown, but playing with Tom Brady instead of Ben Roethlisberger. Going in the third round of rookie drafts according to MFL’s ADP data, Boyce is a low-risk, high-reward player who could produce in his rookie season. He might not pan out, but I believe that he is a underrated talent (the broken foot dropped his stock) in a spot with immediate opportunity – those are the players I buy.

So with the hype surrounding all the Patriot wide receivers (Dobson, Boyce and Kenbrell Thompkins), who would you target? Let’s start a premium subscriber only discussion.