An Early Look at 2014 NFL Free Agency: Quarterback Edition

Jaron Foster

cutlerWith the redraft community just starting to look at the upcoming 2013 NFL season, you already know about all the off-season player movement, rookie outlooks, camp battles, “sleeper” picks (if they can even still be called sleepers), and a myriad of other considerations for your dynasty teams. Even if you don’t, you can get caught up here and go into your draft or peruse the waiver wire with confidence. Beyond this season, however, it is important to understand as much as possible about your players or potential acquisitions to reduce risk and find value. Some of the greatest uncertainty surrounds players with expiring contracts, so with the occasional contract extension in mind we take a look at several key free agents at each position with fantasy relevance and the variables that will determine future production for your teams. We start with a slim class of quarterbacks.

In 2013, the franchise tag for quarterbacks is $14.896 million. This was down from the all-time high of $16.405 million in 2010 but up from the $14.4 million value in 2012. Assuming the 2014 franchise tag stays in this range, the likelihood of the quarterbacks on this list being franchised is limited to one or two players. Note: all contract information is retrieved from www.spotrac.com.

Jay Cutler, QB CHI

Current contract: $8.47 million in 2013, completing a 5 year/$29(+) million deal signed prior to the 2009 season following his trade from Denver

With the ink drying on Matt Ryan’s new contract with Atlanta, Cutler slides into the role of top quarterback in the last year of his deal. Bears management recently stated they would not be negotiating contract extensions with any player until after the 2013 season, potentially a tactic employed to motivate players for the upcoming year. While this could either help Chicago by getting the best out of its players or hurt as players may be looking out for themselves more than the team, it is also likely in part due to the new regime in the Windy City wanting to see what it has before handing out a lot of guaranteed money. Whatever the reason, Cutler will absolutely be playing with an eye on his future.

Along with an improved offensive line and the addition of tight end Martellus Bennett, the pass-heavy offensive philosophy of new head coach Marc Trestman should provide Cutler with plenty of opportunity to put up bigger statistics than the 200 yard/1.5 touchdown per game performances the quarterback has consistently bored us with.

In 2013, Chicago nearly split their offensive plays down the middle with 50.8% pass plays versus 49.2% on the ground. Trestman’s 2012 Montreal Alouettes of the CFL passed 65% of the time. Retreating from the world of Canadian football as quickly as I ventured in, the latest NFL comparison for Trestman came with the 2002 and 2003 Oakland Raiders as they averaged a pass-to-rush ratio around 58:42. Consequently, assuming a 15% increase in pass attempts may roughly yield a comparable uptick in yardage and passing touchdowns, Cutler would be in line for about 3,700 yards passing and 28 touchdowns over a 16-game season. This would have put him as a low-end QB1 in 2012, in the same range as Matthew Stafford and Russell Wilson.

Future Outlook: Cutler is a prime candidate for either the franchise tag or a contract extension, but nothing is guaranteed given the new management team as well as the lengthy list of expiring contracts for key players the Bears face after this season. Expect an improved stat line from Cutler in 2013, though there may not be any clarity into what lies beyond this season until next offseason. However, with no heir apparent in Chicago at this point it would be a surprise if Cutler is not under center for the Bears in 2014.

Josh Freeman, QB TB

Current contract: $8.43 million in 2013, completing a 5 year/$26 million deal

There hasn’t been much discussion of extending Freeman beyond this year, raising questions as to whether the Buccaneers think he is their franchise quarterback. In 2012, Freeman put up career best numbers in passing yardage (4,065) and passing touchdowns (27) while seeing a full 8% drop in completion percentage from the previous season. The additions of receiver Vincent Jackson (19.2 yards per catch) and running back Doug Martin (ten catches of 10-plus yards including three over 40 yards), as well as a bounce-back year from Mike Williams (15.8 yards per catch compared with 11.9 in 2011) helped Freeman reach better numbers despite the decrease in efficiency.

It’s certain 2013 third-round draft pick Mike Glennon needs time to develop and isn’t considered a threat to Freeman save for an injury or very poor performance. Head Coach Greg Schiano has been vocal in comparing Glennon’s skill set to Freeman’s, seemingly going out of his way to express that the draft pick was to serve as insurance to their starting quarterback as opposed to grooming his successor. Whether this is lip service or not, as well as how management truly feels, is moot at this point as they’re apparently going to see how the season plays out. The return of key offensive linemen Davin Joseph and Carl Nicks will supplement Freeman’s building rapport with his offensive weapons.

Future Outlook: Freeman’s performance, as opposed to the presence of Glennon, will be the primary reason for the eventual decision for Tampa Bay to retain their current starter or let him walk. Turnovers and bad decisions need to come down while completion percentage needs to come up for Freeman to either be offered a long-term deal or be franchised. If he doesn’t return to Tampa Bay, he will catch on quickly with another team with a chance to start. It’s hard to imagine him in a better situation, however, given the strength of his supporting cast and the lackluster secondaries of the NFC South.

Michael Vick, QB PHI

Current contract: $10 million in 2013 (bonuses and incentives included)

Cutler and Freeman are the only quarterbacks heading into training camp guaranteed a starting job with only a single year remaining on their contracts. Michael Vick, also in the last year of his deal, has been splitting first-team reps with Nick Foles in Philadelphia’s training camp. The departure of Head Coach Andy Reid and addition of Chip Kelly and his fast-paced offense only adds to the questions surrounding the competition between Vick and Foles.

Boding well for Vick was the fact Kelly lobbied for him to restructure his deal to ensure this battle would occur, rather than seeing the 33-year-old depart for another team. Against him is the resulting reduced hit on the Eagles’ salary cap if cut before the season begins. Contracts aside, Kelly wants his system to translate to the NFL and will choose the quarterback who will best fit what he is trying to do. Early in the off-season, that quarterback appears to be Vick given his mobility and deep ball accuracy. However, Foles actually posted a better completion percentage than Vick in 2012 (60.8% versus Vick’s 58.1%) and has reportedly been the better quarterback in camp.

Future Outlook: Given his restructured deal and skill set favorable to Chip Kelly’s offense, Vick may have the inside track to the starting job. If he wins, he will be looking in the rearview mirror all season and will have little room for error. If Foles wins, Matt Barkley and Dennis Dixon will likely fight for the backup job while Vick finds work elsewhere. Whichever quarterback Kelly chooses will have an impact on how the offense is designed, so look for a frontrunner to emerge sooner than later. If it’s not Vick, I wouldn’t be surprised to see him in silver and black.

Anybody else?

A new team and a window of opportunity could be the formula for the next breakout veteran. There are many more quarterbacks approaching free agency including Chad Henne, David Carr, Shaun Hill, Brady Quinn, Colt McCoy and Joe Webb. Some may even be worth dynasty speculation (think very deep leagues) depending on where they land.

You can follow Jaron on Twitter @jlfoster10

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