Training Camp Battles: The Denver Running Backs

Jacob Feldman

Training camp is upon us which means that football is finally back! For some of us it feels like forever since the Ravens won the Super Bowl and Ray Lewis cried with hundreds of cameras pointed at him. Since then we have had free agency, the draft, and some OTAs but we still have an awful lot of questions about what might happen when the games matter and who the true breakout stars might be. In order to help draw your attention to a few different training camp battles that could have a long lasting impact on your fantasy roster we are kicking off our Training Camp Battles series.

We will give you an in-depth look at several training camp battles and give you the strengths and weaknesses of each player involved. We will also break down what they need to do in order to win the battle and what the upside is for the winner.

Our series continues with a look at the backfield of the Denver Broncos. With future hall of famer Peyton Manning leading the way for the offense and its high flying receivers the Broncos are going to be a source of an awful lot of fantasy points. Manning likes keeping things balanced so the player that leads the way on the ground also belongs in fantasy lineups along with the quarterback and his three receivers. The Broncos have very clearly been searching for that lead runner for years now. The question is if they have finally found one. Let’s take a look at the players in this battle.

Montee Ball

ballThe former Wisconsin Badger is one of the most productive running backs ever in the NCAA. He is in the top 15 in rushing yards for a career and number one for rushing touchdowns. He brings that along with three down talent to the Broncos in hopes of being Peyton Manning’s leading rusher for years to come.

Strengths: Some people don’t like Wisconsin backs because of their history. The thing is Ball really isn’t like any previous Wisconsin runner. He has more agility and elusiveness than any of them have had rolled into a build that fits with a three down running back in the NFL. While he didn’t catch a huge number of passes in Wisconsin, he did show the ability with a 24 catch season in 2011. He also showed a willingness to block. In college he showed good patience, great vision, the ability to make defenders miss, and solid power. When you put all of that together with a frame that has proven it can handle a very heavy workload, you have someone who could definitely be a bellcow in the NFL for years to come.

Weaknesses: Ball didn’t have a great combine – this has raised a few red flags about exactly how fast he might be. There are also some concerns about the workload he had in college as well as the concussion he suffered when he was attacked when walking near campus late at night. The other weakness is if you’re going to play next to Peyton Manning you need to be great at pass blocking, not just good.

Personally, the workload argument doesn’t hold any water for me, but I felt compelled to mention it. There isn’t any true correlation between college carries and longevity in the NFL. Age is still the key factor, not workload.

What he needs to do: Several like to point out Head Coach John Fox’s affinity for veterans. Fox, like many other head coaches, will defer to veteran talents to break a tie, preferring to make rookies (even highly drafted rookies) earn their spot on the field. People misinterpret this as meaning Fox doesn’t play rookies. That isn’t true. The rookie just needs to be clearly superior to the veteran, so that is what Ball needs to do. He needs to use training camp and the preseason to show he is clearly the best runner to earn the lion’s share of the carries. If he can show he is the best pass blocker as well he might never leave the field.

Upside:  Ball could easily end up being the top rookie running back of this class over the next three seasons. Even if he shares some of the load this year, he could still be a solid RB2 in the Broncos high powered offense. If he manages to be a true bell cow by taking over the third down role as well as the early down work, he could push into the top ten running backs.

Ronnie Hillman

The 2012 third round pick of the Broncos comes to the NFL via San Diego State where he was a two year player and put up impressive stats – that didn’t translate into immediate success at the next level as he was beat out by Willis McGahee and Knowshon Moreno for touches. Thanks to McGahee being released and Moreno’s surgery, Hillman enters camp as the top back on the depth chart.

Strengths: Hillman is the fastest of the three runners competing for the starting job. He also has some good quickness that helps him hit the holes or get around the corner. Reports are he has bulked up a little bit and spent a lot of time focusing on his pass protection and pass catching out of the backfield – this should help him see the field as at least a change of pace or third down back from time to time.

Weaknesses: While Hillman is currently on the top of the depth chart, it is more a case of veteran privilege. He isn’t a complete running back and isn’t expected to say on top for very long. He is a bit small and lacks the power to be an effective inside rusher. Even though he has good quickness and speed he rarely seems to make defenders miss in the open field and often went down on first contact. The increased muscle mass might help that, but it remains to be seen.

What he needs to do: Hillman’s best chance to see the field is as a third down specialist. He has the skill set to be an effective player in that role and his focus on improving his pass blocking this off-season indicates he realizes this as well. He struggled with this last season, so hopefully focusing on it helped. He needs to gain Manning’s trust in this role and show he needs to be on the field in all obvious passing situations. Once he’s done that, then he can start to worry about earning a larger share of early down work.

Upside: The best case for Hillman if everyone stays healthy is to be locked in as the passing down specialist and then to come in from time to time on early down work. If he can see the field for 15-20 plays a game and get 5-8 touches per game, he has done a nice job of getting a role. Unfortunately for fantasy owners that really isn’t enough to be in lineups even as a flex role unless you’re really desperate. Should Ball get injured, Hillman could be a decent flex play as he leads the committee with someone like Moreno.

Knowshon Moreno

A former first round pick of the Broncos, Moreno has been walking dangerously close to the line of being labeled as a draft bust. Multiple injuries to his lower body definitely haven’t helped him earn a role. However, he has flashed from time-to-time and had brief moments of fantasy relevance when he has been on the field.

Strengths: The biggest item working in Moreno’s favor is he is easily the most experienced and skilled pass protector on the roster. He earned Manning’s trust last year by doing a nice job of picking up blitzers and helping to keep the pocket clean. When you combine that with soft hands and decent speed/agility he just might be the ideal third down specialist for Manning.

Weaknesses: As I mentioned earlier, the 26 year old Moreno has had a difficult time staying on the field. In fact, his rookie season was the only one of his four that he has managed to stay on the field for 16 games. Since then he has missed at least three games due to injury every year and is coming off of an off-season knee operation for the second year in a row. Over the years he has struggled to get more than what was blocked for him and hasn’t shown the first round talent that many expected. The fact he is the most expensive of the trio doesn’t work in his favor, either.

What he needs to do: The biggest thing he needs to do is get healthy and stay healthy. If he can do that, he will see the field from time-to-time. The trust he developed with Manning last season will go a long way, but Moreno will need to prove that he is far and away the best pass protector in the backfield to ensure a role.

Upside: Injuries have robbed Moreno of a lot of the explosiveness and speed he once had, but he is still an NFL level talent when healthy. With that said, he isn’t talented enough to be a solid fantasy asset given the current team situation. He could earn the third down specialist role, but that isn’t going to get him in fantasy lineups. He would need an injury to Ball in order to be fantasy viable and then he would need to outperform Hillman to be the majority portion of a committee and a flex play.

Prediction

Ball is easily the best talent and it should clear enough to everyone, including John Fox, he needs to be on the field. He should win the role on first and second downs pretty easily. Hillman will get the first shot at third down work, but his work in the off-season needs to have paid off as he wasn’t very good at it last season. If he hasn’t improved, Moreno will take over if healthy. If neither Hillman nor Moreno impress, Ball could be working as a three down back by mid-season and rarely leave the field.

jacob feldman