The Ghosts of Rookie Drafts Past: 2009

Jacob Feldman

mccoyAs we’ve said all week, if you’ve ever seen or read any version of A Christmas Carol, you know all about the ghosts of Christmas past, present and future. In the world of traditional fantasy football, we only care about the present while the dynasty format adds in the future to the mix. It is rare we do or even should care about the past. After all, Adrian Peterson’s 2,000 plus rushing yards last season aren’t going to help you win any games this year.

There are a few instances where taking the time to look back at the past can be helpful. The first is when trying to establish patterns of behavior for players or teams. The second is to get a better handle on the value of a player and possibly getting a great deal on a breakout star before it happens. The third is to figure out your own tendencies, efficiencies and shortcomings when it comes to drafting players. The latter is the focus of this article and for the record it helps to look at the tendencies of your league members to help predict what they are going to do.

From time to time I like to take a retrospective look at my player values (especially rookie drafts) in order to help establish my own strengths and weakness when it comes to player evaluation. We started with the 2011 and 2010 rookie drafts since it is too early to fully evaluate the 2012 rookie class. I’m going to divide each draft up into tiers as well as list where each player was taken in most rookie drafts.

Just a reminder of the ground rules. For the tiers I’m going to use four categories: Studs, Stars, Starters, and Backups. These are all in terms of fantasy leagues. To be a stud, they need to be someone that is selected in the first two rounds of a startup draft on a regular basis. Stars cover the players that would be taken in rounds three through five. Starters and backups are pretty self-explanatory in that they are the players that don’t fit the other two categories but would be starters on most fantasy teams or backups on most fantasy rosters. This was all done assuming a 12-team league. ADP was found using information from myfantasyleague.com

2009 Rookie Draft

Top Tier (Studs)

LeSean McCoy, RB PHI – Early First Round

Percy Harvin, WR SEA  – Middle First Round

Looking back at the 2009 NFL draft, we had a pretty good feeling that a few of the players coming out of that draft were going to be studs. However, the studs that we received were not the same ones that the majority of us expected. McCoy was drafted behind Brian Westbrook and played as his backup as a rookie. It wasn’t until Westbrook became injured that McCoy jumped out and hasn’t looked back since, being in the top 5 running back discussion ever since. Harvin also got off to a slow start before finding his role and exploding. Injuries slowed him last year and I have some concerns about his usage in Seattle (and now his hip injury), but he’s still a top wide receiver when healthy.

Second Tier (Stars)

Michael Crabtree, WR SF – Top 3 Pick

Hakeem Nicks, WR NYG – Late First Round

Matthew Stafford, QB DET – Late First Round

When I look at these three players, it strikes me that all of them could put up top five numbers at their position year after year if they could avoid injury. Crabtree was hampered early in his career by foot issues and most recently the Achilles tear. Nicks has had a slew of nagging issues that have kept him off the practice field and out of a few games while Stafford has had shoulder issues. They have all flashed their talent and for the most part done what we expected them to do when they are on the field. They just need to stay there.

Third Tier (Starters)

Jeremy Maclin, PHI WR – Middle First Round

Kenny Britt, WR TEN – Early Second Round

Brandon Pettigrew, TE DET – Early Second Round

Jared Cook, TE STL – Third Round

The third tier from the 2009 draft is rather interesting. Maclin and Pettigrew are two players who in my opinion haven’t transitioned quite as well as we had hoped and owners who drafted them are probably a bit disappointed. Britt’s owners have definitely had a bit of a roller coaster ride with all of the off the field issues and then the ACL injury. He needs to grow up and show that he’s recovered this year or else he’ll likely be on a new team in 2014. Cook has been a bit of a tease so far, flashing talent but never putting it all together. He’s been given a great opportunity in St. Louis and has a chance to shine this year. He should be on his way up.

Fourth Tier (Backups)

Knowshon Moreno, RB DEN – Top 3 Pick

Chris Wells, RB FA – Top 3 Pick

Shonn Greene, RB TEN – Middle First Round

Mark Sanchez, QB NYJ – Late First Round

Andre Brown, RB NYG  – Early Second Round

Josh Freeman, QB TB – Middle Second Round

Brian Hartline, WR MIA – Fourth Round

Every rookie draft always has its fair share of disappointments. Typically that disappointment comes from the players in the middle and later parts of the first round at the earliest. It is unusual (though not unique) to see two of the nearly universal top three players from a draft class fall apart. While both of them have had moments of success they have also struggled with injuries and putting it all together. Calling them backups might be a bit harsh, but those that spent a top 3 pick on them and that passed on the likes of McCoy or Harvin in the process probably think it isn’t harsh enough. Greene was also a fairly high pick in most leagues, but he turned out to be a merely average talent. While it wasn’t quite a Daniel Thomas situation since Greene did have more talent, he was a bit over-hyped based on situation.

Hartline represents what has shown to be the rare non-tight end that comes out of the third round or later in fantasy drafts that has actually produced at a high enough level to be fantasy worthy. In fact he is the only non-tight end out of the 2009 draft and he joins Cecil Shorts and Steven Ridley as about the only players that fit that definition between 2009 and 2011. Hartline might even be good enough that he is a starter on several rosters or in leagues that start three or more receivers.

Complete Misses So Far

Donald Brown, RB IND – Early First Round

Darrius Heyward-Bey, WR IND – Late First or Early Second Round

Brian Robiskie, WR DET – Late First or Early Second Round

Glen Coffee, RB FA – Middle Second Round

James Davis, RB FA – Middle Second Round

Rashad Jennings, RB OAK – Late Second Round

Bernard Scott, RB CIN – Late Second Round

Juaquin Iglesias, WR FA – Late Second Round

Austin Collie, WR FA – Late Second Round

Gartrell Johnson, RB FA – Late Second or Early Third Round

Brandon Tate, WR FA – Late Second or Early Third

Like the previous two years I looked at, about half the players drafted in the first 25 picks of the rookie drafts ended up being complete misses in terms of fantasy value. Some of them had some value for a brief moment, like Collie, or have earned backup roles on their NFL teams but they are pretty much worthless on today’s fantasy rosters. Unlike the previous years, this group is made up of almost the entire second round of rookie drafts. The only clear first rounder on the list is Brown and that was a pretty big miss given where he had to be drafted. The majority of this group never even saw the field much. In fact it is filled with guys like Coffee, Davis, Iglesias, and Johnson who never saw meaningful snaps.

2009 Rookie Draft Reloaded (According to current startup ADP)

1.01 – LeSean McCoy

1.02 – Percy Harvin

1.03 – Hakeem Nicks

1.04 – Matthew Stafford

1.05 – Jeremy Maclin

1.06 – Kenny Britt

1.07 – Jared Cook

1.08 – Michael Crabtree

1.09 – Andre Brown

1.10 – Brian Hartline

1.11 – Brandon Pettigrew

1.12 – Knowshon Moreno

2.01 – Josh Freeman

2.02 – Shonn Greene

2.03 – Mark Sanchez

2.04 – Chris Wells

2.05 – Donald Brown

2.06 – Bernard Scott

Trends that stood out over the three years:

1)     In all three years, roughly half of the players taken in the first two rounds of rookie drafts were complete busts.

2)     On average, an additional six players taken in the first two rounds have so far been nothing more than fantasy backups or are yet to develop into fantasy starters.

3)     We are looking at only about 6-8 players who come out of the first two rounds of rookie drafts who become fantasy starters. That’s about a 25-30% success rate.

4)     Very few players who are drafted as fliers in the third or fourth rounds actually end up being fantasy worthy. By very few, I’m talking one or two a year.

5)     The exception to all of this seems to be tight ends. They often times take longer to develop but fantasy viable options are often found in the third or fourth rounds of rookie drafts.

6)     Early first round picks produced more studs than anywhere else, as expected. However, each of the three years had at least one of the top three picks be a backup or worse.

7)     The majority of the players who busted did so for one of three reasons. Either they had issues with injuries, they were over-drafted based on situation, or their off the field issues caught up to them. Sure, some of them just weren’t as good as we thought and failed to translate, but most fit one of the previous three conditions.

8)     Rookie picks are far from a sure thing, but few things are more satisfying that having your guy and watching him flourish while all the others crash and burn. That’s why we like them!

I hope you enjoyed this three part look back at the rookie drafts of previous years. If you haven’t had your draft yet, maybe these will help you plan your strategy. If you already drafted, maybe it will help form your trade strategy or at least help you next year.

jacob feldman