32 Responses to “Over/Under: CJ Spiller”

  1. Preston says:

    I will say just under on the rushing yards, just think with rookie QB and largely young WRs it will be harder to run, but I’ll take the over on the receiving and TDs.

    • Sean says:

      I think Spiller gets the OVER on yards, both running and receiving. Unfortunately, I think he gets the UNDER for the TD’s, mainly due to Buffalo’s new stable of WR’s.. not to mention EJ Manuel who will probably run in TD or five.

  2. kcDemonSlayer says:

    Um yeah I’m taking the over on this one guys. Not only is CJ a legit RB1 but I feel that one could argue that he is the MOST valuable RB in dynasty. His size, speed, and skillset….combined with his situation just look like he is going to be productive at that level for a long time. You look at the top 5 RBs and you have Rice, Foster, Jamaal, Lynch, McCoy….these guys have been doing it for a while and their days are numbered. Spiller is the next in line and ahead of Martin/T-Rich IMO. Last year he would have been the #1 RB from start to finish had he not gotten that shoulder stinger. Even despite the injury he never missed a game, but you could tell his play was affected until he heated back up down the stretch. OVER!

  3. SJ says:

    Im all in on Spiller.

    Over, Over, Over.

    Theres no reason to think he wont hit 1700 rushing and 600 receiving yards, with 17 tds. Thats my line – and Im still taking the over.

    Outside of maybe, maybeeee, AP and Martin there is no other player I want on my teams. I’m targeting him in all my redrafts as my RB1 too. There is no player more primed for a elite breakout season.

    • Eric Olinger says:

      HOLY COW! That’s a pretty lofty goal. Assuming he would get 600 yards on 50 catches, he would finish the year with 382 fantasy points in PPR leagues. YIKES.

  4. Ryan Krcil says:

    Great article. Only thing I think that could hold Spiller back is his team. The Bills will need to be better than they were last year to give Spiller the needed carries to hit those marks (the rushing marks specifically). Even with that worry I still think I would def take the over on the yards, but would probably go under on TDs.

    • Eric Olinger says:

      The optimistic side of this is Jamaal Charles had a similar line with an arguably worse team last season. I agree it won’t be easy, but it won’t be unprecedented either. Regardless it should be a lot of fun to watch.

  5. coach says:

    under. way under.

  6. Ken Kelly says:

    …and we have controversy. Strong opinions both ways on this one. I love it!

  7. Catalyst says:

    Spiller is a ManChild!!! Beast Mode!!!! OVER….Way OVER!!!
    8 in the box won’t be enough to stop him.

  8. Eric Olinger says:

    Who would have thought my line might have been too low?!?! A lot of high hopes and expectations surrounding Spiller. God help him if he pulls a Ryan Mathews on us.

  9. Smudzy says:

    I took Spiller with the 11th pick in a start up ppr 2 weeks ago… I was very pleased and am excited for what he can do. That being said I don’t see him as the type of runner than can be a bell cow and eclipse 1400 rush yards so I take the under there. They will want to get him the ball in space on screens, swing passes, and maybe line him up out wide, so I will go over on receiving yards. His team will hold him back on TDs as well so I will go under there.

    1250 rush yds 600 rec yards 10 Tds, thats my prediction and I would be very happy with that production

    • Eric Olinger says:

      That is only 150 yards receiving and two touchdowns less than what he did last year. I think more consistent usage from week to week will increase his end of season output. The touchdowns are always fluky. If he is brought down inside the 5-yard line I would expect to see FJax vulture quite a few scores from Spiller.

      Thanks for reading.

      • jbpar72 says:

        Why does everyone keep saying Spiller can’t be a bell cow back because he’s to small? I consider Jamaal Charles a bell cow back with last years 285 carries for 1500+ yards and Charles and Spiller are the same size.
        I traded for both Spiller and Charles this offseason and I’m expecting both to be top 6 RB’s.

  10. cbryantc says:

    I’m going with the over on all accounts. Obviously I’m bias, as he is my rb1. I do think he could be an injury risk, but regardless he is well worth a top four rb pick. But, if he goes down I still have Lamar, Ivory, Vereen, and Reggie Bush to fall back on.

  11. On film, Spiller looks absolutely spectacular. He not only has the speed and cutting-abilities to attain this stat line, but he also has the instincts and field vision necessary. The big question, however, will be the Bills team itself. Will QB play hold Spiller back? Will the team be so far behind most games that the runs (and swing/screen passes) dwindle by the 4th quarter? These are the main things to worry about.

    It’s dangerous to bet on a rookie coach, but we do see Marrone turning things around in Buffalo – at least to an extent. And as such, Spiller reaching 2,000 all-purpose yards and double-digit TDs is certainly not out of the realm of possibility. You’re taking a bit of a risk drafting him as a Top-3 guy, but the risk may pay off; and certainly, if you can get him as a 7th or 8th RB, you’re in great shape.

  12. smcguiga says:

    I say under because he will miss a bunch of games, the talent is unquestionable but we are talking a small back here, don’t see him as a bell cow at all.

    • Kaleb says:

      Great insight here, especially considering he has only missed 2 games his entire pro career and they were 3 seasons ago…

      • Cain says:

        Some people only see what they want to see. Spiller never has nor ever wkll be a bellcow. He is a shifty scat back. Period. Under under under in all counts. Not everyone is sipping on the Spiller-Aid. It took Freddy Jackson getting old and hurt to finally show. I say someone else steps up.

        • Kaleb says:

          There you go. Spiller busts and someone else is the most productive back on the team. Very logical prediction. Best of all is the stats/analysis to back up your claim.

      • Smcguiga says:

        Kaleb, why you getting so worked up…not everyone thinks like you no need to get mean….I don’t see him as a 20 carry guy you obviously do(or more likely own him which completely slants your view)….I could have gotten spiller recently in a trade and passed as owner was asking too much and for reason I laid out here….relax Kaleb what you think won’t change anything

        • Kaleb says:

          I’m not getting worked up, far from it. It just amuses me to read comments like “Player X won’t do good” without offering any reasoning whatsoever (okay, you brought up his size…). I do own him, but have been trying to sell him all offseason for some additional pieces that can help me down the road because my team doesn’t look to be competitive right now. I’ve said the same on other articles of guys I don’t own. Every man is entitled to their own opinion, but to throw out blanket statements without any supporting statistics or analysis irresponsible, at best.

          • Smcguiga says:

            His size is the reason no reason to add much else, he is an explosive change of pace back with incredible pass catching ability…extremely valuable for sure but these numbers are ridiculous IMO…..ps bill offense is going to suck as well which hurts him even more

          • Kaleb says:

            I guess I can see how his size might concern some (though, as previously mentioned, he’s the same size as Charles, who does have an injury history of his own) but I don’t see how the numbers are ridiculous. He was only 156 yards short of the rushing line and 41 yards short of the receiving line and that was with him starting only 9 games (playing all 16) and only accruing 250 total touches.

          • Ray says:

            I would take the under on this myself. I understand he was close to hitting this numbers last year and didnt start the entire year. My issue is same as most in that for him to get these numbers he has to approach 300 touches. I think if he is on a pace for 300+ you will see an injury. My same opinion goes for Charles, i want him in the 250 range and being explosive. If either of these 2 were to get to 300 touches it would hurt their yard per play average imo.

          • Ray says:

            and would possibly cost them some games or at the very least effectiveness in more than 1 outing

          • Kaleb says:

            At his career averages, he needs only 29 carries and 5 receptions to reach these numbers, putting him at 283. At last season’s averages, 26 and 4, putting him at 280. Nobody would argue that Charles wasn’t explosive last season and he had 320 touches. McCoy’s best season was one in which he had 323 touches. Chris Johnson’s best season came with 408 touches. CJ2K has eclipsed 300 touches every season in the league and has missed only 1 game his rookie year, all while weighing almost 10 lbs less than Spiller. Obviously anything could happen, and it’s not exactly going out on a limb to say “Player x will get hurt” because it’s the NFL but people staying away from Spiller for that reason come away as ignorant.

          • Ray says:

            what was i thinking…. your right and I am ignorant

            please continue

  13. joemegansue says:

    Fred Jackson isn’t going away. He is the captain of the Bill’s offense and Marrone will use him as long as he is healthy. This isn’t an ideal scenario for fantasy owners of CJ Spiller. However, CJ is an incredible talent and he will be very productive. He is a low risk for burn out or injury.
    I see Spiller getting 1100 rushing yards and 400 more through the air with 9 TDs. If ‘Fred Ex’ get’s hurt, I see Spiller’s value spike to top 5 RB.

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