Summer Sleeper: New York Jets

Steve Wyremski

sleeperseriesWith less than a month before all training camps have opened around the NFL, we begin our annual series focusing on a few sleepers from all 32 teams in the NFL.

These sleepers all have varying levels of “sleeperness,” but all merit a little more talking about here in the Premium Content section. Some of these players are deep dynasty sleepers who could merit a spot on your bench in a deep league, while others are players who may contribute a little faster than the deep prospects, but deserve more attention than they may be getting. By definition, a sleeper could mean something a little different to everyone, but we’re simply doing the best job we can to unearth one player from each team who fits the category in some way, shape or form.

We’ll never insult you with a comprehensive list of “sleepers” that includes such names as Lamar Miller, Chris Ivory or Danny Amendola. You’re all too good for that.

While many of these players will undoubtedly fizzle, there’s more value in looking more closely at these deeper prospects and players. We invite you to keep an open mind and either or re-assess your value on those who may be rostered in your league or consider adding a few of these deeper prospects we focus on this Summer who are free agents in your league – after all, some are destined to pan out, too.

Feel free to add your own comments about our choice for the designated sleeper, or nominate one of your own!

Jeff Cumberland, TE NYJ

jeff_cumberland_fotorThe Jets offense lacks playmakers. It’s one of the most overemphasized facts of the 2013 offseason. Given the limited offensive weapons added via the 2013 draft, it’s difficult not to focus on that fact. That said, a plethora of weapons or not – someone has to catch the ball in 2013. Many will point to Jeremy Kerley as the best sleeper candidate, but he lacks a positive long-term outlook we like to see in a dynasty asset. He’ll be quickly pushed aside for a slot role when a more talented outside receiver is added in 2014 via free agency or the draft. Others will point to a Santonio Holmes re-emergence as justification for the sleeper label or comeback candidate for 2013. However, it’s still unclear if Holmes will be ready for the start of the 2013 season and how effective he’ll be after his Lisfranc injury.

With limited pass-catching options and Holmes still on the mend, Cumberland is being handed a prime opportunity to produce meaningful stats. While some may place him in the Kerley group as someone with a negative long-term outlook, I’d point to his 2012 progress and natural athletic abilities as reasons why it’s actually positive.

With the loss of Dustin Keller to the Dolphins this past offseason, there is a clear hole at the Jets’ tight end spot. Hayden Smith received much of the attention in OTAs, but he’s still a distance from making a consistent impact. While his improvements in his second offseason appear to be significant, he’s still learning the game of football with no prior experience before converting from rugby in 2012. That leaves Cumberland with little competition for the Jets’ 2013 starting tight end role. Kellen Winslow, while talented, doesn’t have the knees to sustain a full season. There’s a reason he fizzled so quickly.

It’s not just opportunity with Cumberland that makes him a nice sleeper candidate, though. Flashing back to two seasons ago, then inside linebacker Bart Scott hinted at a potential breakout looming for Cumberland in an interview. He highlighted Cumberland’s improvement and ability noting, “Jeff Cumberland – tight end that no one knows about. I think he can be one of the best tight ends in the NFL this year or next year. This dude is 260 pounds, runs a 4.40, and I’ve seen this guy touch the top of the ceiling in the locker room.” He may have been a bit overzealous with his predictions as one of the best in the league, but he did highlight Cumberland’s natural athletic ability and the breakout potential witnessed during training camp.

While not one of the best in the league, in 2012 Cumberland’s production and utilization spiked. Scott saw something that took some time, as well as an injury to Keller, before it surfaced. If you look at Cumberland’s career production thus far, the 2012 improvement is evident.

In 2011 and 2010, Cumberland only played a total of 89 snaps and was targeted seven times. He breached those totals after a mere three weeks in 2012. With Keller out, he continued to be utilized and targeted and that ultimately gave the young tight end a shot at the 2013 starting spot.

Not only did he improve year over year, but he exhibited improvement throughout 2012. Here is his 2012 game log breakdown:

Week

Snaps

Start?

Targets

Rec

Yards

TD

1

30 / 67

N

4

3

33

0

2

41 / 57

Y

5

2

13

0

3

42 / 84

Y

6

2

25

0

4

40 / 53

Y

5

4

17

0

5

53 / 60

Y

4

2

51

1

6

37 / 65

Y

1

0

0

0

7

9 / 84

N

1

1

4

0

10

25 / 55

N

0

0

0

0

11

33 / 66

Y

1

1

7

0

12

29 / 72

Y

4

4

58

0

13

51 / 78

N

4

2

25

1

14

47 / 64

Y

2

1

37

0

15

66 / 73

Y

9

4

53

1

16

49 / 61

Y

1

0

0

0

17

56 / 75

Y

5

3

36

0

Total

15

52

29

359

3

Starter

11

43

23

297

2

After Bye

8

26

15

216

2

After Bye Starter

6

22

13

191

1

While some people are skeptical of extrapolation, here is how the above would project over a full season:

 

G

Targets

Rec

Yards

TD

FP

TE Rank

Total

16

55

31

383

3

87.3

31

Starter

16

63

33

432

3

94.2

29

After Bye

16

52

30

432

4

97.2

29

After Bye Starter

16

59

35

509

3

103.9

26

What jumps out in the above is Cumberland’s continuous improvement throughout the season and the fact he was most effective as a starter. Are the extrapolated numbers above overly impressive? No, they’re mediocre. However, given his improvement in 2012 from the prior two seasons, the fact he continued to progress throughout the season, his athletic abilities and the fact he’ll likely see consistent snaps in 2013 suggests that his actuals may extend beyond the above extrapolation in 2013. For a guy who is undrafted and on the wire in many leagues, that’s noteworthy.

After all, with the limited offensive options on the Jets’ offense, it’s very likely that Cumberland will see a good chunk of 2013 targets and, therefore, production.

Statistics sourced from ProFootballFocus.com

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