66 Responses to “Over/Under: Percy Harvin”

  1. Brian Davis says:

    I’m taking the over on all categories. I think Harvin will get a bunch of short catches (screens, out of the backfield, etc.) that will inflate his total. Further, 1,000 yards is only asking that he stay healthy for most of the season since the RBs don’t get the ball (in the passing game). And he’s a perfect RZ play-action threat… Over on all 3. I’m super high on him, have him as somewhere between a low-end WR1 and mid-range WR2, but don’t think he’ll fall all the way to low-end WR2 or high-end WR3 as the under would hint at.

  2. BAMNation says:

    I would say over on both.

    He is in a tougher defensive conference this year so lets just hope he stays healthy and has no more migraine issues!

  3. Albert says:

    UNDER. UNDER. PUSH

    This is still a run first team in a tough division. Don’t expect SEA to all of a sudden become a pass first team.

    72/980/6

  4. BB Wayne says:

    Over on the catches but everything else is about right. However, it’s a mistake to think everything will continue to run through Lynch. The training wheels came off of Wilson later in the season last year and it is no coincidence that Lynch’s rushing attempts per game went down. Over the first 10 games before the BYE, Lynch had 7 games with 20 or more carries. After the BYE, he had only 1. This is a big indicator that the offense began to run through Wilson. Also, Seattle did not give up a 1st for Harvin to not touch the ball.

    For Dynasty purposes, Lynch was a sell high for me based on his reduced utilization late in the season, trade for Harvin, and stable of talented replacement backs. Lynch will get his this year, but I think it’s foolish to assume the offense will run through Lynch first. This will be a balanced attack from all over the field with Wilson as the conductor.

    • SJ says:

      Really like this insight here.. nice comment. Very good argument made IMO

    • Eric Olinger says:

      I agree with just about everything you mention BB Wayne. Even though Lynch’s carries went down as the season progressed, his yardage did not. He was incredible when Wilson hit his stride. I don’t think the Seahawks will repeat their 57% run rate, but I also don’t see them flipping to a 57% pass rate either. I think it’ll balance out to a 50/50 split, slightly favoring the run side because of Wilson’s rushes.

      The offense might not run through Lynch specifically, but it will run through the ground game, be it Lynch, Michael or Turbin. That incredible run game allows the passing game to attack the way they do. I think you’re right about selling Lynch. If I own him and don’t honestly believe I have a legit shot at winning it all, I would be looking to trade him.

      I appreciate the comment.

    • Gaston Shackleford says:

      Everything that needed to be said, right there in two paragraphs. Ok, maybe one more thing.
      Petey Carol has a massive man crush on Harvin. As a Harvin owner, my only concern is that instead of riding his new toy as a centerpiece, he’ll keep him fresh and spread it. Rice was always a better WR2 and should flourish without the added attention, and Tate can hold his own when called upon. Ultimately it will come down to Wilson’s choice where the stats will fall, and less about playcalling.

      I’ll still take the over across the board, he’s healthy, rich, happy, and motivated. He will be this years VJax.

  5. Eric Olinger says:

    Percy Harvin – WR – Seahawks
    ESPN 710 says to “not necessarily” expect Percy Harvin to go over 1,000 receiving yards this season.

    I must have some fans in ESPN 710!

    • SJ says:

      Lol.. no offense, but its not like ESPN reports are the watermark for fantasy success :)

      .. why do u think so many people come here

      • Eric Olinger says:

        I just thought it was funny this Rotoworld blurb came through this morning shortly after this article posted.

  6. SJ says:

    After reading the article (nicely done by the way), I’m still not sure why we are pegging Harvin to go under 1000 yards.

    I’ve taken away from it that its basically going to be due to the philosophy to run the air out of the ball in SEA?

    IMO, its relatively easy for any NFL receiver, especially the best on their given team, to eclipse that 1000 yrd mark. WR3′s in FF tend to do that quite often, and Harvin would have done that, even in probably the worst fantasy situation for a WR ever in MINN last year, if he hadnt gotten hurt. Heck, he was the PPR WR1 overall at that time. Even trending those numbers down, I still think 1000 yrds is more than possible.

    I tend to like the insight here, but too much groupthink over Harvin/Wilson/Lynch only making plays on the ground this year. Most QB’s tend to see their biggest uptick in numbers when a exceptional WR talent is added to the fray, and I loved what Wilson did w/o that last season, and am salivating even more with that now the case.

    Dude, I get that SEA will run, but MINN ran for more yards than anybody and Harvin was still getting his numbers. If everyone is so scared away by Harvin only being a “complementary piece” in the SEA offense, I’m now tempted to acquire him on the cheap-ish in every league, cause I assume that is indeed the thought process going through fantasy owners heads. Heck, I’ve even seen him traded for Gordon straight up, albeit before the Gorden suspension. But still, thats just beyond crazy in my book.

    • SJ says:

      Conservatively, I would say 85/1100/9 (total TDs) (1300 total offensive yards). The TD’s may not be conservative, but given that outside of CJ, Julio and AJ Green, there’s probably no bigger big-play receiver than Harvin.

      Saying that, i think even making an argument if (big IF) there is a drop in his total yards, I do think the added TD’s will assist in making up for that.

    • Eric Olinger says:

      What do you mean by too much group think?

      I think people are making a mistake by correlating the impact Percy Harvin will have on Russell Wilson and thinking it will go both ways. Harvin gives Wilson one of the game’s most dynamic offensive weapons and should positively impact his stats. Harvin on the other hand joins a team with Sidney Rice and Golden Tate to share targets. He goes from being the passing game focal point without exception to being the #1 target in well rounded receiving corp. Just because he is playing with a much better quarterback does not mean he will see his stats sky rocket.

      • SJ says:

        Groupthink in that I’ve read a lot about the downside of Harvin to SEA on other sites. If I’m off-base on that, and others arent seeing the same, I’m sorry, but thats just what I’ve seen.

        And by no means am I saying his stats will skyrocket that greatly, but the line of 80/1050/6 is barley WR2 numbers in my book. I am sold that he will surpass that by possibly 10 catches, 200 yards and 4 Tds. Factor in the potential rushing stats and to me that line (barring major injury) seems like the floor for him.

        Again, just the take from a commenter who doesnt like to use spell-check. :)
        Really loving these debates because so many knowledgeable people come on here and post good insight. Wayyy more than your other FF sites (truly, its hard to even read those posts)

        • Eric Olinger says:

          I really enjoy writing these articles too and love the interaction with the readers. It really helps gage the perception of players.

          I don’t think your projections are unattainable but I think they are best case scenario. I own Harvin in leagues and if he hits those numbers I’ll thank you personally. I just don’t see it happening for the reasons I stated but I really appreciate other people’s opinions and views. Its the best part of these articles.

          We at DLF try very hard to separate ourselves from the “group think” mentality. Hopefully we do a good job of it.

    • Preston says:

      SJ I don’t think it is about them running so much or the fact that Harvin got his numbers last season. Did you watch the Minnesota games? Harvin was used in a way that was not only ultra-inefficient, but it was also a large cause for why the offense stalled. They didn’t exactly have better options, but the fact that Harvin HAD to get the ball for them to move, and the fact that he was so inefficient in doing so, is largely what created his value.

      Seattle has other weapons, a real QB, and the ability to move the ball without force feeding Harvin every play. To me this means his targets go down, he sees a slight increase in efficiency (both due to usage and QB play), and ultimately does not hold up to his pace from last season.

      • SJ says:

        I understand what your saying, and yes I watched most of Harvin’s usage (cant say the entire MINN game, since I would go back and forth between contests per week) but I had him in a lot of leagues, and I do agree that they would try to feed him the ball on A LOT of bubble screens, quick-hits and hand-offs – basically they game-planned around him at a high level. Which is what you do with great players.

        With all that said, Harvin only received 9.5 targets and 75 yrds a game. Extrapolated out for the whole season and he would have had over 1200 yrds in just receiving alone. Nothing of mention of what he added in the running game.

        So to your point, it more just signifies how inferior the MINN offense really was. They HAD to use him (like u said).

        9 targets a game is far less than what the leaders get. Calvin of course led the league with over 200, but Harvin would have ranked somewhere between Witten and Stevie Johnson in the top 7-12 ranking. I think thats a fair estimate for him now.

        Even if you want to knock off say 20 targets to a 130 target total, and that would still put him at 95 receptions over the season.

        Basically, and this is my point, if you think Harvin will reach the under here, you must, absolutely MUST have the opinion that Harvin will be used significantly as a decoy, or completely go against the entire skill-set he established as a short-yardage, after the catch, big-play receiver, in that offense and maybe even a strong opinion of him as NOT being an elite talent.

        I tend to think he IS elite and will easily command some offensive gameplanning where he will get his 8-11 touches a game. And knowing how explosive he is, that should easily get him into WR1 territory.

        • Preston says:

          Fair and good points brought up. Ultimately I don’t think he is going to get 9.5 targets a game, that would seem to be a lot in the Seattle offense. It’s not so much that I don’t think they will use him, they just don’t have the incentive to force feed him like Minnesota did, because for one they can move the ball without that, and for two it would make their offense a lot worse. If he hits that 140-150 target range, I’ll take over on all accounts, I guess I just don’t anticipate that.

          • Preston says:

            I should add that an article series I read did some pretty amazing math, and for Harvin to net 9.5 targets/game, it would mean Seattle would throw somewhere from 600-625 passes, which I just cannot see happening. For even 130 targets on the season, Seattle would need to throw some 525 times, which I think is pushing it already.

            And to finish off my point, for him to get into WR1 territory, it seems like Seattle needs to throw 600 times, and I can’t bank on that, especially when you have to pay WR1 prices to get him. His ceiling is just too low given the offense to justify using early pick on him given the amount of risk you take on in doing so. There is no value to be gained.

  7. Chad Scott says:

    Great article, Eric! We spoke briefly yesterday about the over/under bar and were pretty close. I tend to agree with you but doubt the offense will go 57% run again (depends on how much they’re up, I reckon)…I feel like RW will get closer to 500 attempts this year as the reigns are loosened even more…If he gets those attempts and Harvin stays healthy, I’ll take the over on all…

    With that said, plenty of IFs…the over/under bar seems almost spot on, my friend.

  8. SJ says:

    Also, of topic, but would really love to see a Spiller article. I have him at 1600 total yards 12tds and would love to see how many people share my optimism on him.

  9. Ryan says:

    Under/under on catches/yards for me.

    One thing you didn’t directly mention – Percy Harvin was essentially the Vikings’ entire receiving game when he was healthy. Christian Ponder leaned on him heavily. In Seattle, Harvin will be one weapon among many, with a quarterback who is skilled enough to spread the ball out instead of leaning on one guy.

    I’m with you that there’s simply not enough passing yards to go around to support Harvin as a thousand-yard receiver next season. Since he’ll be a role-player in Seattle rather than a focus of the offense, I’m taking the under on catches.

    5-7 touchdowns seems reasonable, so a push there.

    • SJ says:

      Really? Is S.Rice that big of a “weapon” that he demands targets to win games? Is G.Tate? TE’s McCoy/Miller?

      No. No. and No.

      I’m sorry, but I just cant agree with everyone saying that there are too many mouths to feed in that offense to deter the team from given Harvin his week due amount of targets/carries.

      Seriously, that offense is filled with role players, behind Lynch and only with the addition of Wilson did they become more than a .500 team.

      Dont forget it was M.Flynn’s team at this point last year….. Matt. Flynn! Everyone is putting wayyy to much distance and greatness on the Seahwaks right now. They’re good, but the hype is out of control.

      Yes, their DEF made steady progress over the past couple years, and yes, they made some good offseason transactions. But Turbin/Michael are ROL-PLAYERS right now behind Lynch. Lets see if they truly push for game-planning responsibilities as the season progress, more than change of pace backs.

      Rice/Tate are ROLE-PLAYERS. They are. They’re numbers, track record, and in Rice’s case – injury history, prove that.

      Harvin is an elite talent. Elite talents that are given elite resources to acquire, and elite contracts to keep happy are usually game-planned around and given their weekly amount of plays/touches.

      Please, lets have so rationale here. P.Carroll would have to be Bellichick-ian in calming Harvin down after games if hes only given 5 targets in contests. I mean, Harvin gave fits even in MINN over lack of touches. Do we really think he’ll sit idlelly by in SEA. That would have to be the biggest cash-grab and mail-in career by a player ever. I just dont think Harvin is built uncompetitive that way.

      Theyre going to feed their star-player.

      • George says:

        This.

      • Ole J Belboe says:

        This x2

      • Chad Scott says:

        McCoy out for the year, so that’s completely correct(just messin):)

        I love the comments on DLF articles…it’s your guys’ comments and debates that make these a blast to write!

      • Eric Olinger says:

        I don’t think anyone is claiming Rice or Tate are all-pro level players. I’m not speaking for everyone, but my opinion is this, Harvin doesn’t have to be the focal point any longer and garbage time stats aren’t going to happen with him in Seattle like they did in Minnesota. The Seahawks have a Top-5 Defensive unit in the NFL, they will be an explosive offensive team but they will still run the ball close to 50% of the time. They aren’t going to automatically start throwing the ball 40 times a game just because Harvin is in town. Can Harvin still put up WR1 numbers with 80 catches on the season? Absolutely. Is he going to be a 1300 yard receiver? Highly doubtful.

        • Preston says:

          “Can Harvin still put up WR1 numbers with 80 catches on the season? Absolutely. Is he going to be a 1300 yard receiver? Highly doubtful.”

          More optimistic than I can be. I would be quite surprised if Harvin went over 1000 yards with under 90 catches, just look at his previous yards/reception, not good.

          Now I expect him to be used in ways that are better than he was in Minnesota, but to the tune of a 20% increase in efficiency, I just don’t know, and I certainly wouldn’t bet on it.

          Then that begs the question that if he needs 90 catches, then he probably needs 130 targets, and given the Seahawks threw a whopping like 400 times last year, can he achieve that in this offense?

  10. RandomGuy says:

    Harvin a Seahawk? When did this happen? Oh well I don’t think he will top 1000. I think the Alex Smith to Michael Crabtree or Flacco to Boldin connection will generate more fantasy points.

  11. George says:

    In order to reach the 1,000 yard mark, Harvin will need to average approximately 62.5 yards per game.

  12. Jason says:

    I drafted both Harvin and Wilson. I have a lot of faith in them as a duo outside of fantasy and I’m very excited to see what they can do for my team.

    This is Wilson’s first full year with Pete’s confidence behind him and it’s Harvin’s first full year being featured in Seattle. We might not see the best from both of them in 2013, but that’s why I play dynasty.

    I’m saying push/over/push. There is a lot of talent on the field and Wilson will be running the ball as well. The stats above are just Harvin’s receiving stats. He will also get handoffs and return duties. I look for him to do about as well this year as he did for MIN in 2011, though probably fewer rushing yards. I think 2014, after he and Wilson have played a full year together, will be his best year yet.

  13. Sensei_John_Kreese says:

    In a contract league, and I just traded Harvin on the last year of his deal for Cecil Shorts and Josh Gordon, both of whom have 3 years left. Thoughts?

    • Eric Olinger says:

      I don’t play contract leagues but I like Shorts and Gordon. I assume it would have been too difficult to re-sign Harvin after this year? If that’s the case I think you did pretty well buying low on Gordon.

    • OrangeCrush says:

      As a contract player, I LOVE this deal for you.

  14. shawn says:

    I would take the harvin side EVERY time in that trade…

  15. shawn says:

    Oh just realized you said contract league… have no experience with that so I don’t really know

  16. Ole J Belboe says:

    Why is his rushing yards not mentioned whatsoever in this article? I know it says over/under receiving, but it is heardly mentioned regarding fantasy relevance too. One has to assume they will utilize his talents to some extent, right..? Fantasy pts rushing (extrapolated for 2010/2012):

    2010: 22 pts
    2011: 46 pts
    2012: 32 pts

    When mentioning he was on pace to be tied with Welker last year as WR7, if one adds the 32 points rushing, he is up to 321 pts total, 4 points short of WR2 Marshall, and only 14 points less than Calvin himself, essentially less than 1ppg!

    And though Wilson rushes more than Ponder, the similarities with mobile QB is there, and furthermore it’s certainly not like Seahawks rely more on Lynch than the Vikes does on AP..!

    Also, despite Wilson’s fantasy scoring on rushing, his passing stats are still better her than Ponders, and AP has twice the reception total of Lynch.

    • Eric Olinger says:

      A lot to address here.

      1) It’s very difficult to factor in a wide receiver’s rushing yards because they are so inconsistent from year to year. Will Seattle continue to use Harvin out of the backfield? He’s also an amazing kick returner but I don’t know if that will be a role he takes on in Seattle either. His rushing stats are one of his many allures. He racks up fantasy points from as many positions as possible. I felt the receiving aspect was the most concrete ground to debate.

      Peterson was used quite a bit in the passing game last year but I think that was a result to Ponder’s desire to check down constantly. Wilson is much more aggressive.

      Its going to be really interesting to see how Harvin is utilized in with Wilson and Lynch. It’s going to be exciting, regardless.

  17. john lincoln says:

    love harvin but traded him and bench players for cruz

    • Gaston Shackleford says:

      Come back and out up a comment at the point in the season where you regret doing this. I’d be interested to know your hindsight thoughts.

      • johnnyd says:

        As someone interested in trading Forte for Harvin in my 12 person PPR league, so far this looks like a good trade! Cruz has done well so far. Obviously with Percy’s injury. Injury history is part of the consideration also on player value.

  18. Robert says:

    I say overx3, and only the receptions–MAYBE, will be close.
    With a steady diet of screens & play-action routes, I vote over 85/1250/10!

  19. bignett86 says:

    I will also take the Under on both!!! Not only are the Hawks a RUN heavy team, they are also in a division with some top notch Defense; playing the 49ers twice, rams twice, and arizona twice, all having better than average defenses, its almost a no brainer that he wont be as valuable than when he was in Minnesota….

    • MaleSeason says:

      Do you not draft Wilson or Lynch because he plays them twice a year? Harvin is a stud because he can score so many ways… I agree his prospects were better in Minnesota given the offensive scheme, but Seahawks can’t run much more than they did last year, plus Wilson should have more reigns of the offense…

      • bignett86 says:

        I did not say not to draft them, all I am saying is that I not that high on Harvin in Seattle than I was when he was in Minnesota, I get he is a stud, he played for my favorite team, I’ve even met the guy and seen him live. He has the opportunity to make this goal, I just think he wont…..I guess we will have to see, keep in mind, he is notorious for being hurt and last I checked that also was a reason that he never reached 1000 yards in a season yet, and I counting for something like that to happen this year, because It always happens….EVERY YEAR!

  20. Cinnaminson jack says:

    Over on everything , Harvin is a stud and the X factor is he actually likes his Qb and who he is playing for this time. Wilson met him as he landed and went right to work with him on the offense. Plus you give up all those picks and money for a player and not fully use him? I am buy mode on him while he is cheap cause as the season goes he won’t be.

  21. Savagewolf says:

    I’m fully onboard for over for Percy Harvin. He’s a dynamic player who is only going to benefit from moving to Seattle.

    1- Russell Wilson is a big upgrade from Ponder. More accurate throws and a better decision maker who can also run, which keeps defenses honest

    2- Better supporting cast with receivers. Being a number one receiver is tough when your foes KNOW who is going to get the ball. With Rice and Tate, there are more threats to keep the defense from focusing on Harvin.

    3- Lynch vs AP. This is also a benefit I think. AP is the better running back, and with Ponder at QB, it makes the Vikings want to run the ball. Lynch is very good, but not so good that you want to take looks away from the passing game and Harvin.

    4- Harvin is in a happier place. We all know that Harvin and Ponder lacked chemistry. A happy player is a more productive player.

    5- Harvin has a chip on his shoulder to prove that he is worth what Seattle gave for him, and wants to prove that Minnesota is going to miss his production.

  22. Robert says:

    This is one of those topics that makes me very glad the season is around the corner. The Harvin debate alongside the Harvin vs. Cobb debate has been beat to death over the last several months, and Im just ready to see how it plays out.

    Harvin is obviously a big time talent, so when someone like him is the basis of a debate, there will be strong opinions on both sides, and nobody is going to convince anyone to change their stance. Then people get overly passionate when someone doesn’t agree with them, and the discussion can degenerate quickly. Not saying it’s happening here, but I’ve seen it numerous times.

    On to Harvin. I think the line set is pretty darn close. If I had to vote I’d say Under/Under/Push, but not by much. 75/1000/6 is what Im guessing. I just don’t see him being force fed the ball like he was in MIN. My thoughts are about the same as the others who aren’t as high on Harvin. I like Percy, but I traded him for Cobb and feel great about it. I think Cobb has a much higher chance at reaching 100/1200 than Harvin does.

    • Mike says:

      I don’t get this comment. As if Cobb doesn’t have Nelson, Jones, Finley, and two new running backs to worry about. Guess they’ll find a way to force “him” the ball. Not saying over on Harvin but come on man. Take off the blinders here.

      • Robert says:

        Umm, blinders? Cobb had 80 receptions in 15 games last season, in his first real season in the system. He’d have to average less than 1 reception per game more than he had in 2012 to hit 100 receptions. Definitely wouldn’t need to be force fed the ball. If you think the numbers that Cobb put up in 2012 are his ceiling, I think you’re the one with blinders on.

      • Eric Olinger says:

        Completely different offenses though, Green Bay throws relentlessly because their ground game blows. Seattle is much more balanced and the opportunities/targets aren’t there for Harvin like they are for Cobb is the point I believe he was trying to make.

        • Robert says:

          I agree Eric. My comment above was about my belief in Cobb catching 100 passes, not about Harvin. I think those that are relying on top 10 numbers out of Harvin this year are going to be disappointed.

    • Eric Olinger says:

      I actually did a comparison piece on Harvin and Cobb LAST year. It illustrated how Cobb’s rookie year was nearly identical to Harvin and Steve Smith’s. My prediction turned out to be very accurate.

  23. BB Wayne says:

    I know this was a Harvin article but wanted to comment I am the first to admit my Wilson “love affair.” Of course he lit it up at Wisconsin but I never watched enough games like the draftniks to form a strong favorable position like Luck, RG3, or even Tannehil. But that all changed on draft day when Chucky raged all over draft expert Kiper on the ESPN set about how Wilson will prove everyone wrong about his height keeping him from being an elite QB. Well, he was definitely on my watch list after that. I watched all the preseason games closely and when he won the starting job as a rookie I had to target him because of his cheap value at the time. His decision making and ball protection were outstanding. His arm strength was plenty strong and his deliberate over hand throwing motion reduced any height concerns. Plus he was smart enough to find the throwing lanes with a quick release. Basically, Wilson is a younger Brees with wheels who puts in Manning’s film room time and game prep while exhibiting Brady’s cool pocket presence. When watching his tape as the season progressed, he is always scanning the field and his last few games made decisions based on what the defense gave him reducing turnovers. The best part is he was not captain check down and threw deep balls with authority. When the lanes opened up, he had no problem moving chains or scoring TDs with his legs.

    Now, if Wilson was on the Jaguars he would improve their fortunes but not as a top producing fantasy QB in year 2 let alone year 1. Lucky for us he plays on great running team with a good offensive line and one of the best D’s in the league to continuously give him the ball. If he was QB2 over the last part of the 2012 season, there is no reason he can’t be QB1 going forward. Throw in Harvin, and the sky’s the limit for Wilson. Remember last year the Seahawks set a three game scoring record for weeks 14, 15, and 16 including a 42 – 13 drubbing of the 49rs. So, those arguments for low scoring games because of a strong division of defenses are not entirely true. All four NFC teams have improved their offenses with talent and in Arizona’s case, scheme. This all adds up to a melting pot of fantasy goodness for those second set of double header Sunday afternoons.

    Thank God training camp is right around the corner.

    • SJ says:

      Not tying to steer it away either but will just say this one thing:

      I saw that debate your referring to on ESPNs coverage of the draft and thought: how silly, when knowing how amazing Wilson was on the field.

      But what really blew me away about Wilson, was his interview on the Rookie QB Film Review specials that Gruden did. Wilson was so knowledgeable and in command and you could just see the dude was full of leadership. The one thing that may get underrated about him, is he commands leadership on the field. When I saw that, and knowing how only the greats have that trait, I was sold.

      Also, nice point about those division match-ups last year. Totally forgot about the lambasting they put on those teams.

      At the time I remember how ecstatic I was to have Wilson in my lineup, even though tons of ff sites recommended Wilson was not worth the start over other “named” quarterbacks. Lol.. thats why I love ff. The unpredictability and gest you get from the excitement of winning and making the moves you do.

  24. Jeff Chandler says:

    I’m taking the under on this. I’m not buying into the Percy Harvin hype this year. Assuming he stays healthy, this offense is still a ground and pound team with a tough defense.

    It has already been stated by the Seahawks brass that Russell Wilson will be capped at approximately 26-28 ATTEMPTS per game.

    Lets take the middle of that – stating that he will have about 27 attempts per game (around the cap for him) and multiply it by 16 (since most leagues are 16-week leagues). That is 432 attempts. We will assume he completes 64% of his passes yet again.

    That is 276 completions.

    Those approximately 276 completions need to be spread out between Percy Harvin, Sidney Rice, Golden Tate, Zach Miller (whom people forget but he was Wilson’s favorite target in the playoffs) and whatever RB dump-off plays there are.

    With such a low completion count based on what Wilson’s attempts will be capped it – it is hard to see Harvin posting such high numbers with so many mouths to feed.

    Under. All day.

  25. Rico Suave says:

    I took the under UNTIL I acquired him in a trade today. I must admit, like most of the others who are taking the under, you hate him until you have him! Ha! Now I say OVER. People who believe the Seahawks paid this man to NOT be the focal point of the receiving game just DON’T WANT to see him succeed for whatever reason. (Maybe they are Cobb lovers?) Who cares. The man is a baller and the Seahawks are excited to be able to use this new weapon of mass destruction. All Percy supporters dust the hate off your shoulders like dandruff and get ready for a MONSTER season! I’m OUT!

    • Eric Olinger says:

      Owning him shouldn’t change your outlook. You basically admit to looking at him through rose colored lenses. His potential is what it is regardless of whose roster he is on. I love Harvin in fantasy leagues, I just think his value is at an all time high. What did you have to give for him?

  26. Robert says:

    Jeff’s point about Wilson’s pitch-count is a good one, but I think SEA brought Harvin in BECAUSE their offense is so one-dimensional. Hype-train this is NOT. HARVIN’S A FREAKIN’ BEAST, and to imagine he’s gonna be “just another piece” of this offense is NUTS! I say he’s a LOCK for the over, even with a conservative 432 Wilson PAs.

    In 2012 wks 1-16, Rice caught 50 of 94 targets(42%)/748/7, Tate 45 of 80(56%)/688/7, Baldwin 29 of 58 (50%)/366/3. In 9 games in 2012, Harvin caught 62 of 85(73%)/677(11ypc)/3 (with Ponder at QB). Harvin’s career catch rate is 69%, with 11.8 ypc. These guys are not in Percy Harvin’s league.

    SEA RBs & TEs accounted for 87 & 57 (appx 40%) of SEA targets, which leaves 260 of the projected 432 targets for the WRs. Harvin should get 125, for a floor of 86 catches/1000 yds.

    Ponder threw 1 TD every 17 completions (or 27 attempts). Wilson threw a TD every 10 completions (or 15 attempts). With Wilson at QB, Harvin’s 125 targets equates to 8+ TDs. Wilson’s hyper-efficiency blows the TD-under out of the water.

    The preponderance of the evidence makes the under imponderable.

  27. sixshooter says:

    I take the under as I actually feel that Sidney Rice has a rebound year and will most definitely take some goal line TD’s away from Harvin!

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