32 Teams, 32 Questions: The AFC West

Chad Scott

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Much like Chris Mortensen of ESPN, I’ll be touring all 32 teams in the NFL featuring what I’m looking for in the 2013 season and beyond – only DLF hasn’t chartered a bus for me, no pro will actually talk to me and we’ll be focussing completely on dynasty fantasy football. Other than that, it’s totally the same.  In this new weekly series, I will cover all 32 teams and ponder a question I have for each of them in relation to dynasty leagues. Each edition will cover one division – this week, we head out to the AFC West in hopes of sunshine and upside.

Denver Broncos
“How good can Julius Thomas be?”

Admittedly, I too have spent a profuse amount of time attempting to solve the puzzle that is the wide receiver position in Denver – perhaps even too much on the running back situation as well.  I’ll let other pundits formulate their opinions on them while I consider someone a bit more mysterious.  Julius Thomas has been hyped since his arrival into the league, but he has yet to make good on said hype. DLF Senior Writer Steve Wyremski does a brilliant job covering the promising tight end here.

Thomas is buried behind world-beaters Joel Dreessen, Jacob Tamme and Virgil Green as it stands today, according to OurLads.com.  Dreessen underwent arthroscopic knee surgery recently, but is expected back at training camp in late July.  Both Dreessen and Tamme underwhelmed last season and it’s been said if Thomas can take the next step during training camp, Tamme could be the odd man out.

What makes this situation interesting is if Thomas can secure the job, he’s going to be fantasy gold for the remainder of Peyton Manning’s career.  Manning has historically turned average/mediocre tight ends into fantasy contributors such as Marcus Pollard and Tamme during his days in Indianapolis.  Manning even managed to turn Dallas Clark into a top five fantasy TE as well, despite Clark being very much average in my eyes.

Manning has never had a tight end with the athletic gifts Thomas possesses.  I’ll be watching closely in the coming months on how Thomas is performing.  If everything is aces, you should be a buyer.

Cecil Lammey, NFL Insider for ESPNDenver.com and Senior Writer for FootballGuys.com, is much closer to the situation that myself.  I shined the light to him regarding Thomas and this is what he had to say:

“Julius Thomas has been a favorite of mine since the 2011 Shrine Game in Orlando. I saw him alongside Jordan Cameron and he clearly was the more impressive player. I did a piece on Thomas from the scouting combine for the NY Times. He looked great in rookie training camp (coming off lockout, no OTAs/minicamp, etc). As I noted on Twitter at the time, Thomas went from fourth-round pick to running with the first-team in four days. His rookie year ankle injury lasted into the 2012 offseason. He worked out with Manning at Valor High School once Peyton was added but then decided to have ankle surgery AFTER that (and before minicamp). It wasn’t until week 17 last year that JT looked like his old self. In fact, I was chatting with Fox on the sidelines of practice when JT made a sideline catch and Fox said, ‘Looks like my man Jules is finally back!’ He has been getting quite a bit of first-team reps this off-season. I talked to Bill Williamson last Friday and he said if Thomas can stay healthy and keep impressing then it would change the future for the other TEs on the roster.

Some think Green or Dreesen (or Tamme) could be on the trade block. This is looking like a TEBC at this time. JT can also line up at WR and made a 60-yd TD catch from Manning (one-handed) during the last minicamp. In the Adam Gase system, the TE is going to be de-emphasized. 11 personnel (3WR) will be the team’s base offense, whereas last year it was 12 personnel (2TE). This means less opportunity even if Thomas wins the starting job. I expect Thomas to be used as a specialist to create mismatches in their up tempo offense. Dreesen should still be the lead red zone target and is still their best blocker at the TE position.”

Cecil obviously gave me a more in-depth answer than I could have ever asked for, but that’s what he does…overachiever.

Kansas City Chiefs
“What does the future hold for Jon Baldwin?”

The obvious case of curiosity regarding the Chiefs is just how Andy Reid plans on using (or is it misusing) Jamaal Charles.  I, like many others, am not worried about Charles as evidenced by my #3 RB ranking of him within the DLF ranks.  I also have him #2 in redraft.  Redraft?  <gasp> He’s going to be good, you guys.

No, I’m interested in Jon Baldwin and whether or not he matures into the player the Chiefs believed he could be when they drafted him in the first round in 2011.  I wrote about why I think he could be a possible 2012 breakout in February here.

To update that article, Chiefs’ GM John Dorsey spoke glowingly of Baldwin’s mini-camp: “The last three days of practice, Jon Baldwin has had excellent — not good, but excellent – practices,” Dorsey said.  “He’s created separation outside the numbers. He’s now understanding how to use his size and post up and gain separation from the defenders.”  He also went on to say Reid has been putting him in various positions and taking advantage of his unique size and unique skills.  Pitting Baldwin against inferior matchups is exactly what the doctor ordered for this offense to gain traction.

This could be smoke and mirrors by Dorsey but the fact is Baldwin remains an incredibly cheap buy-low in hopes he’s truly turned the corner and figured it out heading into year three.

As it stands right now, Baldwin’s name is penciled in as the starter opposite of Dwayne Bowe.  With all the dynasty hype surrounding sleepers Travis Kelce, Dexter McCluster and even Devon Wylie, pay attention to upcoming camp reports regarding Baldwin’s performances because he might just yield you incredible value for your roster.

Oakland Raiders
“Who’s the WR2?”

There are a few situations I’m interested in when it comes to the Raiders.  Will Matt Flynn once again be beaten out by a rookie Wilson (Tyler Wilson)?  Will Darren McFadden (if healthy) post elite-like numbers due to the exile of the zone blocking scheme and re-introduction to the power run scheme?  In short, I do think Wilson will be the starter at some point in 2013 and also believe McFadden will be a top 15 running back.

What I’m most intrigued by is who will emerge as the #2 wide receiver for whoever is going to be behind center now that Darrius Heyward-Bey is a Colt – after all, someone has to account for those 826 snaps.

Denarius Moore is the burner with huge playmaking ability and will be the #1 heading into the season, rightfully so.  After that, it’s a true crapshoot…or is it?

According to OurLads.com, injury-plagued Jacoby Ford goes into the pre-season as the teams’ #2 wide out, but we all know how that story ends.  The former track star has played in just 24 games in his three seasons, missing all of 2012 with a foot injury.  So as I see it, it’s an open competition for the #2 job between Rod Streater and Juron Criner. 

Let’s compare the two.

Criner was drafted in the fifth round in 2011 while Streater was signed as an undrafted free agent.  Although Streater wasn’t drafted, he out-snapped Criner 594-297.  Streater posted a line of 39 receptions, 584 yards and three touchdowns while Criner managed just 16 receptions, 151 yards and one touchdown.

From weeks 10-17, Streater (21/388/1) was a slightly better fantasy asset than Moore (21/256/3), outscoring him 65.8-63.6 in PPR leagues.

Streater wasn’t invited to the NFL combine but had some impressive numbers during Temple’s Pro Day.  This how he compares to Criner’s combine results:

Player

Streater

Criner

Height

6’0″

6’3″

Weight

200 lbs.

224 lbs.

40 Yard Dash

4.52

4.68

Broad Jump

11.1′

9.75′

Vertical Jump

37.5″

38″

Bench Press

18

17

I believe the starting job is Streater’s to lose as he showed flashes of brilliance his rookie season.  The Raiders will be in a (black) hole often this season and their receivers are known for being kings of garbage time.  Expect more of that in 2013 with Streater giving chase to Moore as the teams’ possession receiver.

San Diego Chargers
“Have I unearthed a sleeper?”

So many “Anchorman” references I want to make, but I’ll mind my tongue.  There are thee certainties in the world we live in today and they are: death, taxes and Ryan Mathews injuring himself.  When that time comes, I don’t want you to be the ones running toward the waiver wire, but instead, sitting back and enjoying the frenzy.

I enjoy a good underdog story.  I love when an undrafted free agent makes a squad and flourishes when given the opportunity.

Enter Michael Hill. 

Hill is an undrafted free agent out of Division II, Missouri Western.  The 5’10”, 210 pound rookie isn’t a lock to make the team, but if he does, he could backup Mathews as the teams’ primary runner at some point this season.  The Chargers signed Danny Woodhead this off-season, but don’t fool yourself into thinking he’s an every down back.  His success was a direct result of Bill Belichick and the “Patriot way.”  I believe new head coach Mike McCoy will utilize Woodhead successfully as well, but to a lesser extent than New England did.  Ronnie Brown is also on the roster (and ahead of Hill on the depth chart), but he’s on his last legs with absolutely zero dynasty value.

I’m not here to talk about Woody or Brown, though.  Hill has a real shot of not only making the Chargers roster, but contributing in 2013.

Hill compiled 4,965 yards rushing and 35 touchdowns in his college career (2,168 yards during his senior season), albeit in Division II.  He was the 2012 Player of the Year in the Missouri Intercollegiate Athletic Association and was also named the Raycom All Star Game’s MVP after rushing for 162 yards and two touchdowns on just 12 carries.  The rookie has the build for a big workload a la Maurice Jones-Drew, without the fanfare.

Here’s how his measurables stack up:

40 Yard Dash

4.6

Bench Press

23

Broad Jump

10’4″

Vertical Jump

37.5″

20 Yard Shuffle

4.08

3-Cone Drill

6.78

Pretty impressive results, especially when you stack them up against consensus overall #1 rookie draft pick, Giovani Bernard.  Hill managed to beat Bernard in almost every category except the 40 yard dash (Bernard 4.53).  We can’t base everything (or anything) off these results, but it’s exciting nonetheless.

I reached out to DraftTV.com’s, Shane Hallam and he had this to say about Hill:

“Not overly fast, but very quick with great vision.  Has patience to hit holes with tenacity.  Adequate blocker who has plenty of experience catching the football at Missouri Western.  Comes off as a good athlete though his upside is limited by the lack of being a big play threat.  Sometimes goes down without a fight and may lack the toughness many teams look for in later round RB prospects.  Solid player who can stick on a roster as a #3 RB.”

Widely undrafted in most dynasty circles, Hill is someone to keep tabs on as we near the pre-season.  With only Mathews and Brown ahead of him as a true “lead back,” Hill could be the steal your dynasty team needs.  If he makes the squad as a special teamer, it means something bigger could be on the horizon.

What questions do you have in regards to the Broncos, Chiefs, Raiders or Chargers? Post them in the comments below and let the debates begin!