28 Responses to “In Defense of Jonathan Stewart”

  1. Tim Miller says:

    Stewart was actually dropped to waivers in one of my dynasty leagues after our draft this year. I traded Chris Johnson away for a 2014 1st round pick and picked up Stewart off waivers. I have insane RB depth in the league, so hoping he bounces back. Nice article.

    • Eric Hardter says:

      Thanks Tim. Without knowing your league settings, it’s amazing to me that someone outright dropped him. I still firmly believe that, when healthy, his floor is that of a PPR RB2.

    • Krcil says:

      That is what the frustration has done… Resulted to owners dropping players for no real reason but disappointment.

  2. Cy23 says:

    I love this article and have remained excited about him.

    It helped that I traded him off for a 1.01 and 1.03, then traded to get him back by giving up only a first.

  3. WZA says:

    I’m not buying it. I’d rather go after other guys. Time to move on. DLF has a serious JStew addiction…time for an intervention.

    • Eric Hardter says:

      Just out of curiosity, what aren’t you buying? I’m not trying to sell you RB1-status, but given his point scoring ability despite limited touches, you could be receiving a rock solid RB2 for RB3 prices.

      • WZA says:

        Don’t get me wrong. It’s a well written article with good stats and everything…well done.

        I’m just moving on from the JStew bandwagon. I’d rather take my chances on other developmental RBs. You’re correct, he hasn’t missed a lot of games, but he is always banged up and misses a lot of playing time within games. He has a chronic achillies issue that flares up every year. The guy doesn’t have the drive to be a starting RB, otherwise he would have left when he had the chance. Etc, etc etc.

        It’s just more of the same. Every offseason we are waiting for him to take the next step and it never happens.

    • Bill Latin says:

      I disagree. I follow this site fairly closely. One of the things that impresses me most, especially in this article, is the statistical data supporting his case. It is absolutely fine if you disagree. However, the name of the game in dynasty is acquiring value. Value is everything. If all the moves you make add value to your squad you will be in contention every year. I am not, nor have I ever been a JStew fan. However, I see the value and will be inquiring in my leagues to see if I can get him on the cheap. Well written and articulated article. These are the types of articles that keep me coming back to this site.(It almost convinces me to become a premium member :)

      • chadtriumph says:

        Agreed, Bill. I love these type of articles! Articles like these are why I decided to support the site and go premium.

      • Eric Hardter says:

        Thanks Bill, I appreciate the compliment! I love using statistics in my pieces, and am a big fan of efficiency metrics. If you liked this piece, you’ll love the work on the Premium side!

      • jgaba2 says:

        wouldnt be worth picking up unless you use him on a bye week…and then who knows if he is healthy…also RBBC approach for the panthers combined with injuries …nothing more than a spot filler if you ask me

        • sixshooter says:

          Well you should not definitely go into the season counting on him to be a starter on your fantasy team that is for sure but as a bye week filler……not sure I have much better. I actually picked up Tolbert because of my lack of faith that Stewart can stay healthy and, at the same time, was hoping DWill would get traded before the deadline but who knows!

          Stewart definitely has the upside and should not be taken for granted as I tried to actually trade for the guy this offseason but knew it was not likely since his owner was shorthanded at RB depth!

          Either way…..I can’t blame neither those who support him nor those who question him! He most certainly is a risky player and one that I would not be afraid on taking the risk on……..for the right price!!!

  4. CptParlay says:

    It’s interesting to read the conclusions of this article on Stewart and compare them to the conclusions in the article on Jennings. Both missed half of last year, and have similar injury histories. Both have declining metrics. Stewart is 3.5 years younger, but only Jennings has a sustained actual record of performance and he is considered done while Stewart is a floor RB2.

    Things that make you go hmmm…

    • Eric Hardter says:

      Age is definitely a factor, in that Jennings will be turning 30 before the season starts.

      The bigger factor, which you declined to include despite the detail I went into in the Jennings piece, is the team change.

      Aaron Rodgers was the most efficient QB in the league last year, averaging 0.671 fantasy points per attempt (PPA). Ponder was the QB28, averaging 0.453 PPA. That’s a relative difference of 48%, but you shouldn’t need stats to tell you that. I said he’ll more than likely be the team’s most-targeted WR, but projecting Harvin-esque stats upon him is disingenuous.

      Stewart has clearly benefited from the 2011 scheme change, so this is apples and oranges to me.

  5. Kyle says:

    J-Stew is a RB3 at best. He is an unreliable weekly start due to Tolbert, Williams, and Cam sharing the rushing TDs. Sure, he might have 80 yards rushing, 40 receiving and a TD in one week (and mind you, that would be a rarity), but the next week he could finish with 35 yards rushing and 20 receiving w/ 0 TDs.

    I would feel sick if I had to start J-Stew – even on a BYE week.

    Given his degenerative ankle issues and constant injuries coupled with the fact that he basically splits time w/ 3 other RBs, I don’t know how anybody could rationally support him.

  6. RV says:

    The disappearing act in games he starts is the worst. It’s hard to stat. You have to watch games. Even saying he started a game and finished doesn’t tell the whole story. He’ll miss half a game but its virtually impossible to stat. You can track it only if you’ve watched entire Panther games. Stay away far away. The stats lie when it comes to J Stew. Sorry for rambling hopefully my point gets across

  7. Scott Peak says:

    Nice article Eric. The numbers are interesting for sure. I think you definitely present a compelling case, and I appreciate you writing this article. It’s definitely controversial for sure. That said, I’ll be the part of DLF that doesn’t buy into Jonathan Stewart, so I’ll be the villain here, lol.

    I think a big reason why his owners are frustrated is his lack of consistency over several years. If you look at the chart above, Stewart finished RB32, RB 15, RB44, RB18 and RB50. Plus, in 2011, when he finished RB18, 45% of his receiving yards came in two games. If you take the other 14 games, Stewart averaged 2.3 receptions and 14 yards receiving per game. If you toss out those two outliers, his ranking drops. That’s the problem with Stewart, you never know when he will give you a good game. Then, he pops once, you put him in your lineup, and for the next 3-4 weeks he disappoints you. Then, you bench him, and he goes off again. This pattern has been constant since his best year in 2009. His rushing numbers have consistently dropped since 2009. His TD totals are poor, averaging 3.3 TDs per year since his best year in 2009, so his value in non-PPR leagues is below average. Plus, he is constantly hurt, and even though he has only missed two games before 2012, it always seems like owners have to check pre-game whether he is going to play or not. Add to that his situation, plus the coaching staff may get fired after this year, and I don’t want him. To me, there is a difference between a buy low and catching a falling knife. If you grab Jonathan Stewart, he might just burn a hole in your roster, and I’d rather take a chance elsewhere.

    Side-note: I have an article coming out very soon on high ankle/lateral ankle sprains as part of Dynasty Doctor, a question posed by a user regarding Stewart. It should be out in the coming days.

  8. TradeHappy says:

    Love the article, I went after him in every league that im in.
    I was able to trade for him in two of my leagues.
    1st I got him for Donald Jones and the 2nd trade was for B. Powell
    3.05 pick In 2013 rookie draft.
    I look at holding onto him like holding on to a early players like Reggie Bush,
    Or Fragile Freddy T.
    I mean people are still holding out hope for Pierre Thomas and Chris Ivory.
    I’m going to give him all the way to 2014 to prove himself, instead of carring
    3 prospect wr I will carry 2.

  9. Doug Veatch says:

    If I’m doing a startup draft JStew is the first player I cross off my list. People keep arguing that the guy is an athletic freak. But at what point does constant plaguing injuries rob you of your explosiveness? I think he’s safely hit that benchmark. There comes a point in dynasty leagues where patience becomes ignorance. He’s already closing in on 27 years old as well. If a RB can’t perform when he’s young, how does anyone expect him to do it in the latter half of his career? Doesn’t make sense to me. His value is equivalent to a mid second round pick in my eyes, but I’d rather have the pick.

    • Scott Peak says:

      Agreed, Doug. I’d rather fill my roster spot with a young talent who has the chance to gain value rather than Stewart, who seems to lose value every year, and is just not a reliable starter or even flex play. I can’t tell you how many times I’ve started Stewart, in PPR leagues, and watch him put up 5 points. Stewart has scored 10 touchdowns in three years. Three! Adrian Peterson put up 39 TDs in three years, and that includes his ACL blowout in 2011. Whether it’s injuries, situation, a poor coaching staff, or bad luck, I’m done with Stewart. I won’t touch him in any format, and I’ve been dreaming of dumping him from two of my dynasty teams since last season was over. Problem is, I’m not going to trade him for peanuts, but I can’t get players ranked >10 spots below him, either. So, basically, I’m hoping for a miracle.

  10. Nevercrywolf says:

    Eric, I completely agree with you. I think if you treat JStew like a developmental player, his value is excellent. Not that he’s young, I just mean treat him like a player that may or may not work out.
    I recently traded AJ Jenkins for JStew basically straight up (some low picks went both ways). I have him as my RB4 and have LeMichael James as RB5. If it doesn’t work out, that’s OK. He’s just a backup flex player at this point.

    I definitely think he is a buy low.

  11. Eric says:

    I think I’d rather own Dwill. His ongoing ankle issues . . . I mean please.

  12. BB Wayne says:

    LOL. See Dynasty Doctor. ^^^

    • Eric Hardter says:

      Scott wrote a great article, no doubt, but I’m not reading anything to dissuade me of my opinions. He’ll be healthy at the outset of 2013, which is all you can ask for – injuries happen. I’ll take my chances on his talent, especially at the cost.

      • BB Wayne says:

        Nearly everybody has value at the right price. However, history is typically a predictor of the future, of course there are a few outliers like All Day, and J Stew may be healthy now but the ankles will fail.

        If he’s priced right then a flier is worth it but so was Best….

        • JohnnyD says:

          But JStew is not healthy now. I really wanna believe, but I don’t see any basis to believe he is healthy now or that “his health won’t be a concern entering 2013.” I fully expect the ankle injuries to minimally dog him into the season. Wouldn’t surprise me in the least if it lasted most / all season.

          BTW – anybody notice the obvious pattern in his yearly production? Good year, bad year, good year, bad year. Like clock work:

          2008 – RB32 (Bad),
          2009 – RB15 (Good),
          2010 – RB44 (Bad),
          2011 – RB18 (Good),
          2012 – RB50 (Bad),
          2013 – ? (?)

          It’s like he has one good year in him, then breaks down, recovers & repeats the process. Oh well, if the pattern holds, 2012 was a bad year; so that must mean 2013 will be a good year!

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