Dynasty Spotlight: Mike Williams
After a college career filled with character red flags, Mike Williams slid a bit in the 2010 draft being selected in the forth round by the Buccaneers. It’s likely he would’ve gone undrafted if not for displaying exciting receiver skills during his brief time on the field playing for Syracuse. After leading his team in receiving yards as a freshman, he ended up being suspended for all of what would’ve been his sophomore season due to academic problems. Then after just seven games the following season he quit the team due to an impending suspension stemming from a suspicious car accident he and a few teammates were involved in. Over the seven games he did play, he reeled in 49 catches for an impressive 746 yards and six touchdowns. He was well on his way to becoming a top seven wide receiver draft selection until his “knuckleheadedness” interfered.
While viewed as a risky pick for both real life and fantasy purposes, Williams paid immediate dividends for those taking the plunge. He led all rookies and his team with a rousing rookie stat line of 65/964/11. He continued to flash the same body control and reliable hands he utilized in college and his career was off to a fast start. Many viewed him as a safe WR2 with WR1 upside heading into the 2011 season.
We all remember what happened next.
A dropoff in yardage and a touchdown regression of epic proportions from 11 as a rookie to only three in his sophomore campaign proved devastating for those counting on him. Sadly for Bucs’ fans, his 771 yards was still good enough to pace the receiving corps. Quarterback Josh Freeman regressed along with Williams, throwing 22 interceptions and a measly 16 touchdowns. It’s a classic case of which came first, the chicken or the egg, but truthfully the answer is likely somewhere in the middle. In other words, Freeman’s regression likely caused William’s regression, which in turn caused Freeman’s regression. Or something like that. Regardless of the cause of the collapse, 2011 had many owners screaming, “Mike Williams, you’re dead to me!”
Like a character on a soap opera (not that I would watch those…ever), Mike Williams came back from the dead in 2012 to post solid WR2 numbers. Once again he was featured as a red zone target despite the presence of the more dynamic Vincent Jackson. Williams was just four yards and one touchdown from putting up a 1,000 yard, double digit touchdown campaign last season and I don’t see a reason why another regression will happen in 2013. According to ESPN, he is tied for ninth in combined touchdowns over the last three seasons with 23. So, while the presence of Jackson caps his upside for receptions and yards, red zone utilization shouldn’t be a concern.
Perhaps the biggest issue presented by Williams for fantasy purposes is his lack of consistency. Not just season-to-season, but also game-to-game. His 2012 season included a three game stretch from week nine through week 11 where he totaled just 81 yards and no touchdowns. If you were counting on him, you likely missed the playoffs thanks solely to his ineptitude. On the other hand, he had 175 yards and four touchdowns in the five weeks that followed.
Williams is no Speedy Gonzalez, but he plays with a Roddy White type of body control and exhibits similar fight for the ball. No, I’m not saying he will be the next Roddy White, but he has made several remarkable catches over his first three years and as long as Josh Freeman or that oddly shaped cranium fellow (Mike Glennon) are airing it out in Tampa, that trend will need to continue. However, the presence of Jackson and Doug Martin should result in his having some room to work over the middle.
There are plenty of things to be optimistic about. First, it sounds like Tampa is working hard to get him signed long term which indicates confidence he can be relied on. Second, his character issues have virtually vanished. There were some grumblings prior to the 2011 season that he was out of shape and some blame his disappointing 2011 on that. I propose the lockout just came at a bad time for a raw, second year receiver and his young quarterback. Next, he tripled his touchdowns and added 225 yards while only losing out on two receptions with the additions of Jackson and Doug Martin and he saw over a quarter of his team’s targets in the red zone last year.
There was another interesting trend in 2012 – Williams kicked off the year with an underwhelming 36 targets in six games. It’s hard to imagine anybody being fantasy relevant on six targets a game without an elite quarterback. On the flip side, he racked up an impressive 53 targets (or about nine per game) over his final six contests. Combining that trend with the urgency displayed by the powers that be to get him re-signed are causes for optimism.
Williams has established himself as a fantasy relevant receiver and at 26 years old it’s likely there are a few good years ahead for him. Much like real life, one bad stretch diminishes a player’s value for a disproportionately long period of time. It is much easier to turn one’s opinion on a person or football player negatively than it is to turn the tide the other direction. In Williams’ case, he bounced back last season. However, likely due to a mediocre 2011, Williams is still being drafted as the #40 wide receiver, teetering on WR4 territory.
Recommending Williams as a WR2 would be a careless, but you could do a lot worse for your third receiver. Those lofty dreams of WR1 status are all but lost at this stage, but being able to pick up a solid WR3 with upside in ninth round? Sign me up.
Follow Mark on Twitter @Mark_Rockwell85
