Over/Under: Tom Brady

Eric Olinger


tombrady_fotor

Welcome to the latest installment of “Over/Under” where I highlight a player, determine some projections based on past tendencies, then state whether I think they will go “over or under” those projections. Projection criteria will be different for each player based on position and situation.

This week’s debate will focus on Tom Brady. We will put our betting line at 4,200 yards and 30 touchdowns.

Tom Brady’s story is well documented since being drafted in the sixth round of the 2000 NFL Draft at pick #199. The infamous “Brady Six” even have their own ESPN documentary highlighting him being selected as the seventh signal caller off the board after Chad Pennington, Giovanni Carmazzi, Chris Redman, Tee Martin, Marc Bulger and Spergon Wynn.

From Super Bowl championships early in his career to record breaking statistics in the middle and almost robot-like consistency now, Brady has been a mainstay in the top tier of fantasy football quarterbacks. Regardless of the team dynamic, you just knew Brady was going to be the engine of this offensive juggernaut. In 2007, he threw an NFL record 50 touchdowns (23 to Randy Moss) while throwing just eight interceptions. In 2011, he broke Dan Marino’s single season record for passing yards by throwing for 5,235 yards, but finished second to Drew Brees who set the all-time record with 5,476 passing yards. He and Rob Gronkowski also set an NFL record in 2011 by hooking up for 17 touchdowns, most ever for a tight end in any single season. Brady and Belicheck have managed to stay ahead of the curve of the ever evolving NFL landscape. Just when you think the league has caught up to them, they completely change their point of attack. The only thing that has stayed the same in New England’s offense is Tom Brady himself.

Let’s look at his career stats:

Year Games Comp Att Yds TD INT Rush TD FF Pts

2012

16

401

637

4827

34

8

4

340

2011

16

401

611

5235

39

12

3

366

2010

16

324

492

3900

36

4

1

299

2009

16

371

565

4398

28

13

1

270

2008

1

7

11

76

0

0

0

3

*2007

16

398

578

4806

50

8

2

390

2006

16

319

516

3529

24

12

0

219

2005

16

334

530

4110

26

14

1

249

2004

16

288

474

3692

28

14

0

224

2003

16

317

527

3620

23

12

1

215

2002

16

373

601

3764

28

14

1

253

2001

16

264

413

2843

18

12

0

166

2000

1

1

3

6

0

0

0

0

*Injured in week one and missed rest of season

Over the years, the Patriots have given us some serious fantasy studs. The aforementioned Rob Gronkowski and Randy Moss for starters, but also Wes Welker, Aaron Hernandez, Corey Dillon and even Troy Brown. They even made lesser talent shine bright in their system with players like Deion Branch, BenJarvus Green-Ellis, Danny Woodhead and Kevin Faulk. If you’ve played fantasy football over the last ten years you have without a doubt plug-and-played Faulk or Woodhead at some point because of bye weeks or injury.

Now Coach Belicheck and Tom Brady find themselves at a crossroads. Gone is the security blanket  in the form of Wes Welker who signed with Peyton Manning and the Denver Broncos. It was reported Brady was “beyond furious” they lost Welker after Brady himself signed what was considered a below market value contract so the Patriots could resign key free agents. I hardly consider five years and $60 million dollars settling, but when far inferior talents like Joe Flacco sign six year deals for $120.6 million, I guess you are underpaid. Rob Gronkowski, who spends more time on the operating table than on the practice field, just underwent his seventh surgery since his junior season at Arizona. Aaron Hernandez is recovering from what is considered minor shoulder surgery. The wide receiver depth chart has more question marks than at any other point in the Brady era.

Having totally retooled their arsenal, the offense that walks onto the field in week one will look somewhat similar to the Pats of old but somehow…different. The Wes Welker role will now be filled by free agent signee Danny Amendola. Amendola has often been called “a poor man’s Wes Welker” going all the way back to their Texas Tech days. Amendola also replaced Welker at Texas Tech. Well, we’re about to find out just how poor. Amendola has flashed game changing ability during his time with the St. Louis Rams as both a wide receiver and a kick returner. He actually led the NFL in all-purpose yards in 2010 with 2,364 yards. Unfortunately, he also has yet to show he can stay healthy and withstand the abuse of a starting NFL wide receiver and he’s on his fourth team. In 2011, he broke his arm in week one and missed the rest of the season. In 2012, he had an extremely rare clavicle injury that dislocated inward and almost pierced his heart. Now he is expected to play in the most fantasy friendly wide receiver spots in all of football and according to OTA reports, Brady and Amendola have shown great chemistry already.

Also, coming out of OTAs is the unfortunate truth the Patriots honestly don’t know when Gronk will return from injury. All of the sudden the Jake Ballard waiver claim from last season is looking real good for New England. While Ballard (or any other human on the planet), isn’t in Gronk’s league, he has shown the ability to produce and make plays from the tight end position. Even though he won’t be the “out of this world” red zone presence Gronk was, Ballard will do enough to free up Aaron Hernandez and Shane Vereen in the passing game.

Brady will have more new faces to work with this season after the Patriots added rookies Aaron Dobson, Josh Boyce and Kenbrell Thompkins and veterans Michael Jenkins and Donald Jones. During OTAs and training camp, the Patriots are working with a quantity over quality mentality. Jenkins and Jones are hard working veterans but lack difference making NFL talent. Thompkins is an undrafted player from the University of Cincinnati, but has received some first team reps. Dobson was drafted the highest, second round out of Marshall and is considered the heavy favorite to start out wide as a rookie.

With Stevan Ridley and Shane Vereen in the backfield and the overwhelming presence of new faces in the passing game you have to assume the Patriots are trying to reload on the fly and lean on the run game until everything gels. With New England’s timing based offense and Brady’s demand for excellence, you have to wonder how this is going to work in 2013. Looking at the career stats of the team’s current wide receivers and tight ends, it’s not that impressive on paper except for Gronk and Hernandez.

Name

Games

Catches

Yards

TDs

Michael Jenkins

130

354

4427

25

Rob Gronkowski

43

187

2663

38

Aaron Hernandez

38

175

1956

18

Danny Amendola

42

196

1726

7

Daniel Fells

71

92

1086

8

Donald Jones

35

82

887

6

Lavelle Hawkins

52

71

771

1

Julian Edelman

48

69

714

4

Jake Ballard

14

38

604

4

Michael Hoomanawaui

30

25

338

3

Kamar Aiken

2

0

0

0

*Aaron Dobson

0

0

0

0

*Josh Boyce

0

0

0

0

*Kenbrell Thompkins

0

0

0

0

*Rookie

Stevan Ridley is coming off an impressive sophomore campaign where he rushed for 1,263 yards and 12 touchdowns. I would expect to see a lot of Ridley again this year as the team’s power back and goal line runner. The role of passing game specialist will be held by Vereen. We caught glimpses of it in the playoffs last year when he caught five passes for 83 yards and two touchdowns versus the Houston Texans. You can count on Vereen thriving in this role and giving the Patriots a much more dynamic element out of the backfield than in recent memory.

How will all these changes affect Tom Brady’s production as an NFL quarterback and fantasy QB1? Will all this new talent blend quickly enough to give us the Tom Brady we’ve grown accustomed to? Will the historically injury prone pass catchers suddenly stay healthy? Tom Brady is going to be asked to do more on field coaching than he’s ever had to do this year to keep this team in the Super Bowl picture.

When taking everything into account, I have to take the under on both yards and touchdowns, there are just too many variables. The last time Brady had to play an extended period of time without Wes Welker 100% he threw for 3,900 yards – that was the year after Welker tore his ACL in the playoffs. Yes, Brady threw 36 touchdowns that year, but Welker caught seven of them and Gronk caught ten. We’re not sure how much of Gronk we’ll see this season, but I know exactly how much Welker we’ll see. Even if Gronk manages to start week one, there is no guarantee his back holds up just ten weeks after surgery. Now factor in the developing story of Aaron Hernandez being questioned in a “possible homicide” and you could be looking at a Jake Ballard and Tim Tebow tandem at tight end. Ok, maybe not the Tebow part.

According to Ryan McDowell’s ADP data, Tom Brady’s average draft position fell to 62 in June as the QB9. I think that’s completely fair. He’s earned enough trust with owners over the years to be selected as a low end QB1 but at the same time there are higher upside options out there. With the “read option” offense taking the league by storm and most fantasy leagues rewarding more points for rushing touchdowns than passing touchdowns, I wouldn’t be shocked to see Brady’s ADP slip another couple spots by the time August rolls around, especially if Hernandez ends up in legal trouble. The Patriots have an early 2000’s feel to them right now. They won their Super Bowls with strong defenses and a solid running game and signs are pointing towards the team shifting back that way. Remember what I said earlier about Belicheck and Co. staying one step ahead of everyone. Just when you build your defense to match the high flying Patriots, they’ll come out and cram it down your throat.

What do you think? Does Tom Brady have another year of top five production in him or do we see more of a balanced attack from the Patriots and Tom Brady’s fantasy stats slip a bit? Are you taking the over or under on Tom Brady throwing 4,200 yards and 30 touchdowns?

Let me know in the comments below.

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eric olinger
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