The DLF Mailbag

Eric Hardter

rudolph

Welcome to the latest edition of the weekly mailbag.

Send me your questions using the DLF Mailbag Form and I’ll include the best in future articles.  Remember the guidelines to have the best chance at seeing your question get posted:

1.) Dynasty questions only, no start/sit questions

2.) Help me help you by providing sufficient information about your league (e.g. line-up requirements/PPR or non-PPR/etc.), and include your first name and where you’re from.

3.) Your chance of getting your question answered is inversely proportional to the length of the question.

Let’s get to it!

1.) Okay, tell me how badly I screwed up – I’m having buyers’ remorse from trading James Jones for Robert Housler.  My thinking was that with Carson Palmer making Brandon Myers fantasy relevant last year, a younger, more athletic tight end like Housler could have a monster few years.  Thoughts?Matt in TN

Though the ensemble cast of writers here at DLF generally presents a diverse collection of opinions, Cardinals’ tight end Rob Housler seems to strike a nearly unanimous chord of approval.  In fact, he’s appreciated so much that our own Steve Wyremski even interviewed him not all that long ago!  Simply put, the guy appears to have a bright future and, there’s not much to dislike.  To extrapolate upon that viewpoint, consider the following paragraph.

Housler is an athletic specimen who, at 6’5” and 248 pounds, runs a 4.55 second 40-yard dash.  The measurables don’t end there, as his times in the agility tests (three-cone drill and 20-yard shuttle) at the 2011 NFL Combine were also the best at the tight end position.  Finally, during his time at Florida Atlantic University, Housler sported a robust average of 15.7 yards-per-catch across 78 career receptions.  Last year, he finally began to put it all together at the conclusion of the season, with 21 receptions over his final four games.

So when I confirm your line of thinking about overpaying for him, I can assure you it has nothing to do with Housler’s NFL future.  The biggest issue I have is the guy you traded away – James Jones just came off a career year in Green Bay, where he led the league in receiving touchdowns (14), and also sported personal bests with 64 receptions, 98 targets and 784 yards.  This led to a finish as the PPR WR17, as well as an increased price tag.  To that last point, Jones’ ADP currently stands at 91.5, which is an eighth round pick in startup drafts.  On average, Housler is being selected over five rounds later, with an ADP of 152.2.  The masses appear to be uniformly in favor of the “cheese-head.”

One last distinction I’d like to make is your reference to the chemistry between Carson Palmer and his former Oakland teammate, Brandon Myers.  Though it’s true Myers experienced a TE1-level season in 2012, a lot of that is due to a combination of a lack of alternative pass-catching talent, garbage time production and the scope of the offense.  That italicized segment of that last sentence is extremely crucial, as new Arizona head coach Bruce Arians has almost never employed a tight end friendly scheme.

Let’s consider the timeframe from 2007 through 2012, when Arians coordinated the Pittsburgh and Indianapolis offenses.  In five of those six years, his team’s top tight end was held to 51 receptions or fewer, with the lone aberration being Heath Miller’s 76 catches in 2009.  Suffice it to say, though Palmer may have leaned on his tight end in 2012, Arians’ downfield scheme has proven unfriendly to the position.  This is not to say that Housler won’t eventually flourish, but given the uncertainty, as well as the discrepancy in the ADP values, I’d have driven a tougher bargain.

2.) I’ve been offered Kyle Rudolph and pick 1.04 for Antonio Gates, and I’m guessing you think I should jump on it. Why are you guys so high on a tight end that’s catching passes from Christian Ponder, is on a run first team and has a terrible YAC average? Do you think Gates will have any type of resurgence this year?David in PA

There are a number of reasons to be high on Kyle Rudolph.  Firstly, he’s an imposing figure at 6’6” and 259 pounds, and when that size is combined with his 34.5-inch vertical leap, he becomes an elite red-zone weapon.  In fact, nearly 10% of his 93 targets in 2012 went for touchdowns (nine)!  He may only run a 4.78 second 40-yard dash, but his wingspan (34-inch arms) and large hands (10.25 inches) turn him into a player who’s “open” even when he’s covered.  As a sophomore in 2012, he finished as the PPR TE11, which is a low-end TE1 in a 12-team format.

You referenced quarterback Christian Ponder as a potential pitfall, but throwing him to the wolves so soon is a bit disingenuous.  During his two years under center in Minnesota, Ponder has been afforded only one credible receiver in Swiss-Army knife Percy Harvin, and virtually nothing in the way of a downfield threat.  Yes, his 2012 efficiency was a brutal 0.453 points-per-attempt (PPA – fantasy points from passing divided by number of passing attempts), but he hasn’t been helped much by the Vikings’ general management.

Getting back to the concept of efficiency, Ponder’s numbers actually skyrocketed when he targeted his big tight end.  60.7 of his 218.8 fantasy points from passing (28%) were accrued when throwing to Rudolph, correlating to a much higher PPA of 0.652 – this constitutes a 44% increase in efficiency!  Ponder’s numbers may not have been great, but he was a lot better when Rudolph was on the receiving end of his passes.  Furthermore, if he fails to improve in 2013, the Vikings will undoubtedly look to find a replacement.  Situations change, but talent persists.

Unfortunately, while Rudolph appears to be ascending, the Chargers’ Antonio Gates is in a very clear decline.  Despite playing in 15 games last season, Gates still fell off the TE1 radar, finishing as the overall TE13.  Turning 33 today, it’s becoming more and more evident that his best days are behind him.  So yes, as you suspected, I’d advise you to run (don’t walk! to accept this trade.  Getting Rudolph for Gates straight up would be a coup, but getting the draft pick thrown in is the type of stuff fantasy dreams are made of.

3.) I have both Robert Griffin III and Russell Wilson in a 16-team PPR/salary cap league – both have about equal salaries.  Do you think I should target a top-10 running back (we start one RB and four FLEX players) for one of them or try for a DeMarco Murray type and 2014 first round pick?  Is this selling to low?Scott in IL

I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again, there are two keys to winning in a large-league format.  The first is that you want to have as many studs as possible.  It sounds obvious, but with a larger pool of starting players, every team isn’t guaranteed a roster loaded with elite assets – the more studs you have, the higher your floor is on a weekly basis.

Secondly, you want to have a high-end starting quarterback.  In 2012, the difference between the overall QB1, Drew Brees, and the QB16, Carson Palmer, was a staggering 138.9 points – that equates to a whopping 8.7 points per week, and 46.5% of Palmer’s 18.7 weekly fantasy points. In a smaller league format, points from another position could mitigate this differential, but in a 16-owner league, that will be tougher to replicate.

Fortunately, you’re flush with signal callers, as both RGIII and Russell Wilson finished as top-ten positional options last year.  Given that they were only rookies in 2012, and likely have years of high-level output ahead of them, this puts you in an enviable trading position.  Dynasty football perfectly fits the definition of the supply and demand model, and you should now be able to reap the benefits of your savvy 2012 rookie drafting.

Getting back to my large-league mandate number one, I would definitely try to acquire a stud ball carrier.  Having a player like DeMarco Murray (when he’s healthy) would be nice, but he won’t afford the game-breaking abilities you desire.  I’d seek out a pass-catching running back like LeSean McCoy, CJ Spiller or Jamaal Charles, and offer up Wilson.  You might need to pay a little bit more, but I assume his salary is relatively cheap, giving you an additional bargaining chip in your trade negotiations.  If successful, you’ll be able to couple your elite signal caller with a similarly skilled ball carrier, making your starting lineup that much more potent.

4.) I am in a ten-team non-PPR league with very small rosters (only four running backs are allowed and there are no free agent acquisitions until week eight).  My league’s rookie draft includes free agents (there are no off-season free-agent pickups), so where would you rank Lamar Miller and Chris Ivory in this rookie class for a team that is in win-now mode? Chester in CA

DLF staff writer Dan Hasty recently penned an insightful piece about the top four rookie running backs, and I agreed with a lot of what he wrote.  With that said, I’m not convinced that any of Giovani Bernard, Le’Veon Bell, Montee Ball and Eddie Lacy will offer up the type of production you’re looking for as a team built to compete now.  Bernard’s value tanks in a non-PPR setting, and while Bell, Ball and Lacy will likely receive goal-line carries, none of them showed the type of playmaking ability in college that would lead me to believe we have the next Doug Martin on our hands.

Therefore, I wouldn’t hesitate to rank Lamar Miller ahead of the above quartet.  He appears to have Miami’s starting job locked up, and boasts top-end speed which the rookies are all lacking.  If healthy, he shouldn’t have a tough time getting to 250 touches.

Chris Ivory, likewise, also has the inside track to his starting position, and has previously proven effective in spot-duty with the New Orleans Saints.  He comes with injury concerns, but receives a bump due to the non-PPR format, and should be the Jets’ runner of choice in the red zone.  I’d place him in the same tier as Ball and Bell.

However, there’s still one avenue that’s gone unexplored to this point – why not try trading the pick?  Though each of the six ball carriers you mentioned has value in a dynasty setting, none of them have any guarantees of immediate success.  I’d offer up the pick to the owners of undervalued veterans like Matt Forte, Chris Johnson or Reggie Bush.  They may be longer in the tooth, and you might need to add a little extra to get the trade done, but none of that will matter when you’re that much closer to winning your league’s championship.

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eric hardter