Changing Scenery

Dan Hasty

denard_robinson

Now that the NFL Draft dust has settled, it’s time we decipher exactly who has the best chance of success this season and beyond. Paying attention to training camps is always key, as momentum begin to build in the heat of summer. The legends of Matt Forte and even Doug Martin first came to light when they became the talk of two-a-days. You can usually read between the lines on whose impressing or regressing if you keep a close watch.

As I look at rookie drafts, it’s my hope you aren’t looking for a quarterback. Hopefully you thought ahead and found a way to get Andrew Luck or Robert Griffin III, because this class is uglier than Steve Buscemi. It may be the weakest class of signal-callers since the 2007 NFL Draft (in case you’ve tried to forget the first-rounders that year were JaMarcus Russell and Brady Quinn). If you’re looking for a running back, this class gives you the best options to work with. If you’re looking for a receiver, there’s a top-prospect, then everyone else. The following is a list of rookies who best fit their new teams:

Tavon Austin, WR STL

Jeff Fisher is a smart guy, but his weakness has always been finding big-time wide receivers. Through his time in Tennessee, Fisher virtually ignored pass-catchers. It didn’t work out too well (see: Britt, Kenny). Perhaps he’s learned a thing or two in his time away. Besides setting his team up nicely for the future with the RG3 trade, Fisher was able to use those same resources to move up to grab Percy Harvin 2.0, an electrifying player at West Virginia. He’s expected to serve in the same role with the Rams – a team that has struggled to move the ball considering a number one pick is throwing passes.

What remains to be seen is exactly how Austin’s talents will be utilized. His natural position makes him a slot reciever, the same way Danny Amendola was used last year. Even though his role is currently undefined, it shouldn’t worry you. Austin’s a playmaker, and made Geno Smith look like Johnny Unitas last season. Trust that Austin will be used and find great success, regardless of where he lines up. He’s the unquestioned top rookie receiver available on draft day.

Montee Ball, RB DEN

Can’t wait to see what new fantasy team names the Broncos newest back will inspire. During his time at Wisconsin, Ball rushed for 77 touchdowns. That’s not a misprint. Looking back, it’s hard to believe Ball lined up next to Russell Wilson in the same backfield – no wonder his junior season saw him score almost 40 times. Ball now finds himself in another plum setting; the Denver Broncos ft. Peyton Manning. I can write their name like a band because of the sweet music they made on 16 different Sundays last season.

It’s easy to make a comparison of Ball to Terrell Davis, but I think he’s more like Joseph Addai. A quick and shifty back, Bell stands to benefit from Manning’s red-zone prowess in the form of three-to-four extra touchdowns each season over the next few years. By the time Manning hangs ‘em up, this could be Ball’s team. He still igures to be the first running back taken in dynasty league rookie drafts this season.

Le’Veon Bell, RB PIT

An absolute workhorse at Michigan State, Bell becomes the lead man in Pittsburgh. The former Spartan assumes the role Rashard Mendenhall had before joining the Arizona Cardinals. The two backs are very similar. Both have workable, but not elite speed. The ability to keep their balance is one of their biggest strengths, and both can make a tackler miss (note that tackler is singular). They’re each dependent on their offensive line, but Bell holds one distinct advantage – ball security.

In over 400 junior-year touches, Bell fumbled four times. It sounds like a lot, but 400 carries in a single season is downright insanity. Last season, Mendenhall fumbled three times on just 60 touches. Stretch that out over Bell’s workload last season, and Mendenhall puts the ball on the ground 20 times! Bell’s secondary advantage is durability, having not missed a game despite averaging 30 carries per contest . On a team where Jonathan Dwyer and Issac Redman spent as much time on the trainer’s table as they did on the field, Mike Tomlin and his newest “Bell-Cow” will get along just fine.

If that isn’t enough, Bell saved his best performances for last. In his final four college games, when he ran for over 130 yards each contest. Mendenhall averaged a career-high 20 carries per game in the teams’ 2010 Super Bowl season in his best-case scenario. Bell won’t be much after age 30, given the beating he’s likely to take, but he should give you solid RB2 production as soon as this year. He has the opportunity at the moment, which is half the battle, but don’t sleep on his solid skill set.

Marcus Lattimore, RB SF

It’s my personal opinion that you draft for talent and throw out all other factors. In any sport, the cream rises to the top. Lattimore may take patience, but should be worth the wait. He’s set to be available for a bargain basement price on a team that moves the ball incredibly well. I’m willing to take my chances on his durability issues working themselves out in the NFL given the reasonable asking price. Like the man starting ahead of him, Frank Gore had similar issues in his college career. Lattimore suffered freak injuries in college, and is already showing signs he’s capable of a full recovery. Even if he doesn’t, Lattimore at 80% could still be an RB2 in two years. He’s cheap, and he’s talented. Don’t say I never told you.

Denard Robinson, RB/WR JAC

While Robinson wasn’t suited for the quarterback position he played in college, “Shoelace” was a threat to score every time he touches the football. Jacksonville, desperate for playmaking ability, got Robinson at the bargain-basement price of the fifth round pick last April. Whether he’s a return man, receiver, running back, or all of the above, he’ll help move the chains; which is a lot more than most fifth-round picks can do. Once Jacksonville figures out what’s best for him (or even if they don’t right away), he may still help you. He’s the closest thing we have to a dynasty league Swiss Army Knife. Keep in mind he could easily have multiple position eligibility at as many as three positions within the next few years. He set to begin his career at running back, but if he gets receiver eligibility, watch his value to be similar to CJ Spiller’s early-career – not the best play at running back, but a good choice at wide receiver.

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