The First Four

Dan Hasty

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With the NFL Draft behind us, we get the chance to examine four of the impact players heading into rookie drafts. Many observers felt that this year’s draft was one of the weakest in terms of elite talent, especially when it’s unfairly compared to the 2012 draft class (Trent Richardson, Doug Martin, and David Wilson). What this class lacks in elite skill sets, they make up for in depth. This will give you options and solid production even if you’re not holding a top three pick on draft day. We’ve had many writers share their thoughts on the class, but multiple opinions are key right now and the following should give you an idea of what I think you’re dealing with this year at the running back position.

Giovani Bernard, RB CIN

The Cincinnati Bengals drafted Bernard with the 37th overall pick, making the former Tar Heel the first player taken at his position in 2013. The latest a running back was taken before this year was 1963, when Alabama Crimson Tide runner Mike Fracchia was drafted 33rd overall by the Cardinals, so you could say it’s been a while.

Bernard is a solid talent, but I have concerns, and so should you. A shifty, elusive back is what every team loves, but I think we get carried away with that label. I recently read a comparison of him to Titans running back Chris Johnson. I also discovered that if I had antlers, I’d be a Moose. Johnson, whose game is based off elite speed, ran a 4.24 40-yard dash at his combine. A few months ago, Bernard ran a 4.53 in front of the scouts in Indianapolis; almost the same, but not at all. The idea that Bernard is anything close to CJ2K is crazy, regardless of what is agility or acceleration might suggest. I see Bernard as poor man’s LeSean McCoy in a best-case scenario.

There are two other concerns with Bernard – durability and maturity. I’m sure we both don’t like drafting players who can’t stay healthy, or ones disliked by their teammates and coaches. One wrong move by a guy like Bernard, who finds himself on a team with a propensity for troublemakers, could find him a warm seat on the bench. I’ll never say never when it comes to drafting a player, but I expect to have Bernard lower on my board than others.

Le’Veon Bell, RB PIT

Pittsburgh made Bell the 48th overall pick this April. Lucky for him, the Steelers are one of a handful of teams who take pride in their ability to establish the running game. Because of that, I expect the team to make him a focal point of their offense. Bell is a classic example of a good talent matched with a great opportunity, and I expect him to run with it.

I was lucky enough to watch the former Michigan State Spartan during his years in college, and most Saturdays, he was the only player able to move the ball downfield for his team. After spending his first two seasons as part of a running back by committee, Bell became the featured back on an offense that had little success throwing the ball downfield. The departure of Kirk Cousins, combined with the ineffectiveness of quarterback Andrew Maxwell allowed college defenses to protect the first 15 yards of the field, after Maxwell proved incapable of throwing strong, accurate passes any farther. Even with defenses keying on him all season, Bell averaged an astounding 30 rushes per game, averaging nearly five yards per carry while finding the end zone 12 times, all while staying healthy.

Despite the departure of Mike Wallace, playing next to Ben Roethlisberger will be a huge help for Bell, who fills the role of the departing Rashard Mendenhall. I like Bell to approach the rushing totals of Mendenhall’s first full season in 2009 (242-1108-7) this year. Bell is my second-ranked running back in this class. Solid RB2.

Montee Ball, RB DEN

Ball was the next runner off the board with the 58th pick as he became the third back taken in round two. Ball joins a dream scenario, being placed next to one of the all-time great quarterbacks in Peyton Manning. Over the course of his 15-year career, the older of the Manning brothers have turned average runners into RB1s with the success of Edgerrin James and Joseph Addai in Indianapolis. Even last year, Willis McGahee was well on his way to a thousand yard season before a torn MCL in Week 11 ended his season.

A prolific career at Wisconsin saw Ball score an astounding 77 rushing touchdowns in his four years as a Badger. Now he joins the Broncos with what sounds like light competition in the backfield.  The team has finally found serviceable usage from Knowshon Moreno, but he’s likely suited for a backup role if he stays with the team. McGahee looks more likely to be released than he does to return this season. All signs point to the Broncos clearing the way for Ball to become the featured back in the Mile High City.

A big reason I like Ball to succeed is his knack for finding the end zone. On a Manning-led offense, defenses are keyed into stopping the pass. Ball is going to surprise not only opponents, but also owners who pass on him in rookie drafts this summer. Ball is a great fit for John Fox, and should be the first running back off the board at your draft this summer.

Eddie Lacy, RB GB

Lacy was selected just two picks (#60 overall) after Ball went to Denver (who nearly took the Alabama runner according to John Elway). Despite a breakout season, it’s my opinion Lacy is the beneficiary of his college team’s zone-blocking system. Alabama is the pipeline for NFL talent. In the case of running backs, we’ve started to notice all of them (Mark Ingram, Richardson, and now Lacy) look like world beaters. First, it was Ingram’s 2010 Heisman Trophy that put Crimson Tide running backs on the map. He became the first runner taken in 2011, then became the lead back in New Orleans, one of the NFL’s most prolific offenses.

While a talented runner, Ingram’s talent seemed best suited for his college system. Over his first two seasons in the NFL, he has averaged just 3.9 yards per carry, and saw limited opportunities in his offense. A reason for that is Drew Brees. Why take a gain of four by Ingram, when Brees can get you a first down whenever he wants? You don’t need Sean Payton to make that decision.

A year later, Richardson broke out in a huge way. An overwhelming talent in college, he seemed to have the body to withstand an NFL-beating. The increasing benefit of the light workload during his college years made him one of the most attractive running back prospects in the last decade. That talk intensified after becoming the number three overall pick to the Cleveland Browns; a team with the running ability of Rosie O’Donnell in high heels.

Richardson found the end zone 11 times in his first season, but showed that even running backs with great talent need their quarterback to be able to keep the defense honest, racking up only 3.6 yards per carry over his first season. His 11 touchdowns gave him relevant fantasy value last season, but as his yardage increases, and Brandon Weeden improves, he should pull even with his fellow 2012 draft pick in Buccaneers running back Doug Martin.

This moves us to Lacy.

After flying below the radar much like Richardson did before 2012, Lacy only averaged eight carries per game until getting the starting job this past season.  While impressive during the season (then again in the National Championship Game against a supposedly stout Notre Dame defense), I see many similarities in Lacy and Ingram. Even in his big junior season, Lacy averaged just 15 carries a game (compared to Richardson’s 22) and never carried the ball more than 20 times in a game at Alabama. Richardson did it six times.

Despite the skill set, Lacy’s durability might be my biggest concern, as he already comes into this season with medical issues. A toe injury caused his draft stock to fall well out of the first round. To make matters worse, Green Bay drafted his competition two rounds later in selecting UCLA running back Johnathan Franklin.

Given where I would have to select running backs in rookie drafts, I am waiting and taking Franklin. In the end, I see his talent winning out, especially since Lacy seems like a good bet to miss time with injury. To me, Lacy seems much closer to Ingram that he does to Richardson. The only way he ends up on one of my teams is if I can get him for a bargain basement price.

Follow Dan Hasty on Twitter @DanHasty34