Late Round Gem: Dennis Johnson
There’s a popular Arian Foster view bouncing around the fantasy community. We covered it here at DLF a few weeks ago. Masses are jumping off the Foster bandwagon given his age (27 at the start of the season) and the fact he’s coming off multiple 300+ touch seasons. Many are expecting deterioration of play and ultimately opportunity for touches in the Texans’ backfield beginning in 2013.
With Ben Tate as the only other running back on the Texans’ roster, one or more of a handful of rookie running backs currently working with the team are going to get a shot at roster spot and potential touches. With Tate scheduled to become a free agent in 2014, more than 2013 touches are potentially at stake in this camp battle.
Of the rookie running backs with the team (Cierre Wood, Ray Graham, George Winn, Dennis Johnson), Johnson is my stash pick. Graham and Wood are receiving a lot of the immediate attention, but here’s why Johnson may be the pick of the bunch:
Measurables
Johnson is small at 5’7”, but he’s a thick back with a strong lower body at 196 pounds. Think Maurice Jones-Drew or Ray Rice. Like these guys, Johnson has tree trunks for thighs and his strong lower body and thick build overcome what he lacks in height.
Johnson’s size/speed combo made him a valuable kick returner at Arkansas and profiles him as an immediate special teams contributor and/or third down player.
Here are his pro day stats that further support that:
– 40-yard dash: 4.47
– Vertical: 32.5”
– Broad Jump: 9’10”
– Short-Shuttle: 4.55
– Three-Cone: 7.11
– Bench: 21 reps
A few things stand out in his pro day performance – 40-time, bench press, and three-cone performance. In particular, that three-cone performance really highlights his burst and acceleration ability.
Take a look at how Johnson compares to other successful smaller backs:
|
Player |
Ht |
Wt |
40-time |
Bench |
Vertical |
Broad |
Shuttle |
3-cone |
| Dennis Johnson |
5’7″ |
196 |
4.47 |
21 |
32.5 |
9’10” |
4.55 |
7.11 |
| Maurice Jones-Drew |
5’6 |
207 |
4.39 |
18 |
36 |
9’8″ |
4.41 |
7.08 |
| Ray Rice |
5’8″ |
199 |
4.42 |
23 |
31.5 |
9’11” |
4.2 |
6.65 |
| Brian Westbrook |
5’8″ |
200 |
4.57 |
26 |
37 |
9’10” |
NA |
7.09 |
The above comparison is particularly interesting given how close his numbers are to Rice and Westbrook in both size and performance. Given the comparison, it’s as if he’s a blend of these two players. He doesn’t beat either guy across the board in measurable. However, the one thing that really stands out as a potential concern with Johnson is his short area quickness given the slower shuttle time. Still, compelling numbers for an undrafted player.
College Production
Here is how Johnson’s college career breaks down (excluded 2010 as it ended with a season ending injury early on earning a medical redshirt):
|
Year |
Car |
Rush Yards |
YPC |
TD |
Rec |
Rec Yards |
TDs |
|
2012 |
137 |
757 |
5.5 |
8 |
25 |
160 |
2 |
|
2011 |
106 |
670 |
6.3 |
3 |
24 |
255 |
2 |
|
2009 |
57 |
342 |
6 |
0 |
10 |
72 |
0 |
|
2008 |
36 |
184 |
5.1 |
1 |
4 |
23 |
0 |
|
Total |
336 |
1953 |
5.8 |
12 |
63 |
510 |
4 |
Take a look at some game clips here.
The biggest concern with the above is that Johnson never shouldered the load as a feature back for an entire season.
However, while Knile Davis was injured in 2011, he played a significant role in the Razorbacks backfield. The following season with Davis back in 2012, Johnson actually outplayed the “more talented” Davis. While it was only his first season back from injury, Davis averaged 3.4 yards per carry as compared to Johnson’s 5.5 – that led to Johnson snatching the starting job from Davis after outplaying him on limited carries through five games in 2012. Johnson ended up holding the starting job for the rest of the year.
Something also worthy of highlighting is that in 2012, Ole Miss was the best run defense that Arkansas played. On a yards per carry basis, their defense ranked in the top ten in college football. Coincidentally, this is only one of the two games in 2012 where Johnson received more than 20 carries. He racked up 161 yards on 27 carries and a touchdown for his best performance of the season. This is what you want to see from a prospect – the ability to succeed against stiff SEC competition.
Another thing evident in Johnson’s Arkansas career is his one-cut style. That’ll work well in Coach Gary Kubiak’s zone blocking offense. This combo made Foster’s career and has the potential to aid Johnson, as well.
Versatility
Other than running back, Johnson brings the added dimension of having experience as a kick-returner. He’s also trying out as a punt returner in OTAs. Those two aspects will bring added value to Johnson in attaining a roster spot since he’ll serve as more than a back-up running back. Coach Kubiak already said that he thinks it’ll come down to special teams when evaluating running backs.
In addition, given his size, pass-blocking ability, and speed, Johnson can serve as a change of pace back in passing situations as needed. The Texans plan on taking three of the undrafted rookies to camp, so Johnson’s a good bet to be one of them given his versatility.
Summary
Johnson costs nothing to acquire sitting on the wire in most leagues. He’s a deep option, but given his speed, one-cut running style, situation with the Texans, and his versatility, he’s a free option that possesses the potential we look for. Many say undrafted running backs rarely pan out, but there are always exceptions (see Foster) and there isn’t a better bet than a guy who consistently beat out a 2013 third round pick in college.
