16 Responses to “Colt 44”

  1. SJ says:

    His situation in NY seemed like the best case scenario for Bradshaw – lead back of a committee, GL touches, passing/third down work, QB and Coaches confidence.

    In that scenario last year he produced only 90 yrds a game and had less than 250 touches. His ypc average is great, I’ll give you that, but I must accept that this best case scenario is somewhat unlikely in INDY. Sure I see it as a good landing spot for him – probably the best given the options. But if he was just a weak RB2 last year, theoretically, he’d be more of RB3/FLEX player this year – someone who would help only in deep roster lineup leagues, or as a good bye week flex type rb. Basically, if your starting him every week, good luck. And most people were last year.

    I agree, at least this does revive his current value to some point, which was at pretty much zero a few weeks ago, but expectations should be monitored a bit. I’d be surprised if he hits 1000 total yards on the season given the committee.

    More like 850, with a handful of receptions (<20) and TDs

    • Jacob Feldman says:

      Your projections put him at being roughly half as productive this year as he was last year. You really think that the Giants were double the fit that Indy is?

      • SJ says:

        His totals were 221/1015/6, 23/245/0 last year… i wouldnt say thats really half.

        • Jacob Feldman says:

          I was looking more per game since you can’t really predict how many games someone will get hurt for. He had 90 yards per game last season. 850 total yards is 53 per game. That’s within the ballpark of “roughly half” in my eyes. I guess we will just need to agree to disagree on this one.

  2. SJ says:

    Considering he’s only had 2 of 6 season where hes had substantially above those numbers (2 seasons above 1000 total yards), Id say thats a pretty fair estimate.

    • SJ says:

      Even if you throw out his first two seasons in the league, where he was a strict backup, it doesnt help his cause all that much. To get 1000 total yards (and like more than 5 TDs) hes going to need to average close to 15 touches a game.

      Again this is just an estimate, but considering the downgrade in team/situation/injuries i think thats asking a lot from him at this point.

    • Jacob Feldman says:

      You’re skewing numbers a little bit. His first two seasons he hardly played other than on returns because he was behind Jacobs and Ward. You can’t really include those years if you’re trying to get an accurate picture of what he can do as part of a committee. So without those you get:

      2009: Minor part of a committee (under 200 touches). 985 yards from scrimmage.
      2010: Became the major part of a committee. 1549 yards from scrimmage
      2011: Missed 4 games. Still had 926 yards from scrimmage.
      2012: Missed 2 games. 1260 yards from scrimmage.

      Your projections would be the lowest of his career, even lower than the season when he only played 12 games. I just don’t see that happening.

    • SJ says:

      No worries Jacob :)

      I know your very passionate about this subject given you written the article. I was just pointing out that, given the new situation, and build up of injuries expectations should be tempered at Bradshaws output at this point.

      But who knows.. maybe he does reach 250 touches for 1200+ yards and solid RB2 production this year and blows my opinion out the water. If any team/situation would allow him to do that, its definitely this one with indy. So this is absolutely the best case scenario at this point for him.

      Sorry, not trying to be a Debbie downer :)

      • Jacob Feldman says:

        Not a downer at all. Different opinions are definitely welcome. I would guess he’ll end up with about 225 carries and about 40 catches. I think luck will find him quite a bit in the passing game as they switch to more of a west coast style. Time will tell though!

        Thanks for the comments!

  3. Ray says:

    Bradshaw has always produced in a committee type backfield.
    With Andre Brown coming out of nowhere (happened to get him off the wire last year) and David Wilson breaking out towards the end, he still managed to stay relevant.

    Now in Indy he will be relied on for the bulk of work which does concern me a bit, but it may be the best situation hes had yet. Eager to prove hes still got gas in the tank and real no threat for the #1 position on the depth chart, this one year contract may be able let owners “cash out” after 2013.

    I expect nothing less than 1200 total yards and 6-8TDs. A solid #2 back.

  4. esotericx20 says:

    I will gladly sit back and let others start drafting this guy too high… He might be able to put up low end RB2 numbers…. for the 6-8 games that he is healthy! Don’t buy the hype, a top heavy RB with fragile feet is not a good combination!

    • Jacob Feldman says:

      How can you predict anyone will only play in 6-8 games? That would be more missed game in one season than all of his time as a starter…

    • BigD says:

      we draft auction…..bradshaw is perfect for that scenario. you can get him cheap when people have to spend salary cap money on him. as for drafting him high in a regular draft, i figure about 6 of a 12 man league will stay away from him altogether. of the remaining 6 about 3 of those will try to get him with their bottom three picks only, just taking a chance…the remaining 3 will be serious contenders and the placement of where he should be picked would be where you would take a #3 rb or a flex rb? that is where he fairly should be takin.

  5. The Coach says:

    jacksonville has justin forsett… who in my opinion is a better player right now than beanie wells is.

    • BigD says:

      that might be your opinion, but how can you base it? wells has had a 1000 yd 10 td season. what in the green earth has forsett ever done?

  6. bignett86 says:

    Great article Jacob, I just have a question for you….I have Ahmad Bradshaw, and Ballard, and with what i read on your twist on Ballard, should i proactivly try to trade him, or keep him just incase? I have Ballard for 3yrs 1k (cheap), and if i trade him what kind of future draft pick or trade is he worth?

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