56 Responses to “Over/Under: Arian Foster”

  1. JT says:

    I’ll give him one more year of those stats then the decline begins.

  2. Joe Kool says:

    Nice article and I think for re-draft I’d take him insanely high..but after the volume of carries this guy has had..there’s no way I am targeting him as early for dynasty. Yes, he is “only” 27, but the volume of carries is too high for my liking, combined with his YPC has gone down fairly significantly each season.

    As for the over/under, Ill take the under on the yardage. He eclipsed 1500 only once before, and it wasnt last year (though it was close). The TDs I can easily see since he certainly has a few games where he punches it in 2-3 times.
    Ill go with under yards, over TDs (even though I think 12 is about on par).
    His totals? 1250 yards, 13 tds.
    Then the wheels completely come off.

  3. Jake Rickrode says:

    All signs point to decline. I’ll take the under. He’s a late 1st, early second dynasty pick in my opinion and that’s settling. Ben Tate is an absolute must if you draft him. I almost always disagree with Jim Day, his opinion just solidifies my take on Foster. Pass.

  4. smcguiga says:

    I hear you on most of your points but tough to ignore the huge drop in YPC I view that as one of the key metrics for a back like Foster. Age not the issue but the huge amount of work over such a condensed time is, this has hurt almost all backs AP is a freak of nature and really should be omitted when discussing backs as he is once in a generation type back. Foster does keep himself in shape but I would put chances of some time of injury at a much higher than average rate for him this year, the massive workload last year and last 3 have taken toll on him to ignore the decline in YPC is dangerous IMO. If he stay healthy he goes over these totals but I don’t think he will so I say under. I also think this is year Tate finally does emerage….I expect over 1,000 for Tate. Don’t forget Tate has some of best measureables at RB in entire league needs to kick injury bug but if he does he is real deal not some token backup.

    • Jon says:

      I agree that if Tate stays healthy he will have a nice season and could set himself up for a decent payday. Lets not forget that Foster has 105 carries in the playoffs, they count towards the total too. I found this to be an interesting read: http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1271412-why-and-when-do-nfl-running-backs-start-to-decline

    • Eric Olinger says:

      I hate the word “metrics”. You can set parameters to manufacture any set of metrics you need to support any argument you want. The eyeball test should carry more weight. Look at the Raiders, they draft based on metrics and take every workout warrior that rolls through Indy. How has that worked out? Shanny sees a back with good vision and a high football IQ but tests “poorly” and they produce.

      Arian Foster has proven the metrics wrong since entering the league as an UNDRAFTED FREE AGENT!!! Where were the metrics when he was passed over 253 times?

      His “huge drop off in YPC” is largely based on the fact he rushed for almost 5 yards a pop. Rarely does that hold up year to year.

      • smcguiga says:

        Eric you may hate the term but it is the basis of much of analysis and articles that this very site proclaims….you want to go with your gut and your eyes be my guest but Foster’s workload should not be ignored to do so is reckless…..you seem to be in minority being so high on him but maybe you are right only way to know is time but the fact that he hurts himself day one of OTA’s can’t be reassuring to you.

        • Eric Olinger says:

          That’s fair. I may be in the minority and I can totally understand the risk and wanting to move him down the ranks a bit but it’s gone TOO far. I can see taking Martin and Richardson over him and possibly Charles or Spiller. But those RBs need to be the first five off the board in some order. You could shuffle that however you want and I would be happy with who I got.

      • ColemanKelly says:

        That “metric” would be his college coaches trashing him to NFL scouts, having a fumbling problem, and being unable to workout fully due to an injured hamstring. The Raiders draft solely off combine information, which is a terrible idea. We all know the zone blocking scheme can turn less talented running backs into fantasy stars, but that doesn’t mean they’re still not less talented.

        Let’s be real, man.

        • Eric Olinger says:

          Are you suggesting that Arian Foster is less talented?

          • ColemanKelly says:

            I do not, and I don’t remember what I was referring to when I wrote that. Whenever someone brings up metrics, there’s always someone who screams Arian Foster, LeSean McCoy, Frank Gore, etc. These guys are clear exceptions to the metrics rule.

            Foster = hamstring injury
            McCoy = flu
            Gore = knee injury

            Their workout information is a false read. Foster falling in the draft was the perfect storm of ill-time injury and a bad final year.

            If you’re using the eye test, Foster looked sluggish, to say the least. He went down on first contact way too often. He looks to be a volume runner at this point, and a ton of his value comes from the fact that they run a ton near the goal line, which could decrease will the addition of excellent red zone receiver Deandre Hopkins.

  5. notorioustot says:

    I love Arian, and for this year, I’d say the over. But the real question comes into his dynasty value, which I think we all agree on.

    I did trade him before last year after he helped me win my 14 team Dynasty League in 2011. I sent Arian, Mike Goodson, Davone Bess and Chris Givens for Locker/Hasselbeck, J-Stew/DWill, Andre Johnson, and a 2013 1st rounder (1.07 which I traded while on the clock in April for Marshawn Lynch) and a 2014 2nd rounder. We’ve all seen STUD RBs, fall apart over an offseason (S.Alexander, M.Faulk, P.Holmes, L. Johnson, etc.), it was that factor that was the reason I sold him while he still had significant value.

  6. Lou says:

    I’m going with the under/over. You make valid points throughout and I can’t in good faith dismiss one of them, but to set the bar at 1,500 yards combined when you stated that Foster will be spelled for a couple series a game is incredibly optimistic. I don’t think he’ll fall far short of that number, I’m thinking he ends up in the 1,350-1,450 combined yardage range, but I do think he falls short of it.

    That being said, the TDs are an easy over. Kubiak runs when he gets near the goal line, a trend that has been proven throughout his coaching career. Couple that with the fact that Foster excels in that area and it’s a match made in heaven. The only aspect that truly gives me pause is the state of the Oline, but believe we’re a year or two away from it being a true “problem area” for the Texans.

    As for the Foster hate in general, I think it can be summed up as simply as “Taking perceived upside is sexy, taking the known commodity is boring.” Foster is known. Thankfully, for those of us who relish the boring on our way to fantasy goodness.

  7. Eric Olinger says:

    The best news for everyone is I have become the Arian Foster Fan CLub poster boy. If he falls flat on his face everyone will have free reign to tell me “I told you so!”

    • The Coach says:

      Get in line, pal. I’ve been the Arian Foster poster boy from the end of the 2009 season.

      And this question is an easy OVER.

      I would take Foster first in a redraft league, a dynasty league and any other kind of league. People that are selecting guys like Richardson and McCoy over him deserve to get laughed at. Foster is the best in the business and will continue to be the most consistant number 1 running back since the early days of LT.

  8. Vic says:

    Over/Over. Do you think Greg Jones will improve Foster’s YPC? I do.

    • Eric Olinger says:

      I think it will help too because Foster runs great with a FB and Greg Jones is one of the best in the league. Foster hasn’t played with scrubs though. Vonta Leach was a beast too.

      • Vic says:

        Leach was in Baltimore the last two years. Perhaps coincidently the worst two years of Fosters YPC. Plus Foster ebdured a complete overhaul of the right side of the line in ’12. Unless you are Barry Sanders, RBs need blockers. Phil Loadholt is arguably co-MVP on the Vikings.

  9. Gronk says:

    I’ll take the over. Foster had a ton of carries but so what. When a defense KNOWS Foster is going to run the ball, it’s going to be hard for his average not to decline. Enter Hopkins to help keep the defense honest! Defenses will no longer be able to focus on just Andre and Foster. This, to me, will open up a several big plays for foster. Maybe I’m being a bit optimistic but i see his YPC going back up to around 4.5. I think with Hopkins and a healthy Tate spelling him, he pushes for 1700+ combined yards. He’ll always be a TD machine.

    • Eric Olinger says:

      Couldn’t agree more. That is my exact feeling!

      • Gronk says:

        Nice article btw Eric. Not sure why there is so much hate for a guy who only played for a few years and has been nothing less than a stud. AP has a TON of touches and has played several years longer. Probably a bad comparison as we’ll find out AP is, in fact, a cyborg! lol All joking aside…this may be a good time to get Foster while his value is so low.

    • Westcoat says:

      Defenses will still stack up to stop Johnson and Foster. Until Hopkins proves himself. I will take over and under,I believe Hopkin takes away a couple td. I also think this is his last year being a top 5 rb.

  10. John says:

    I don’t think Foster is treated any differently than other aging players with problems with nagging lower body injuries. Look at how Miles Austin and Greg Jennings are viewed in the FF community. THOSE are players people truly bailed on. Lower body strains and pulls tend to increase with age. They take longer to heal. Saying Foster is just 27 years old or just a 4th year starter downplays the difference in how RBs age. They age by touches. Look at other RBs like Priest Holmes and Terrell Davis who got similar workloads over the same timeframe. The potential for sudden breakdown is real. Even a guy like Shaun Alexander was pretty much done after 5 years of dominance.

    I would rather sell a year too early than wait a year too late.

    • Eric Olinger says:

      That’s fair John. I just don’t see anyone trashing Ray Rice. Going all the way back to his college days he has had huge work loads. Guys like Marshall Faulk had ridiculous touches and stayed productive. I think Foster has at least 2 years of elite production. If you’re operating in a 3 year window, that is someone I am buying for a title run.

    • The Coach says:

      terrell davis blew out his knee and priest holmes broke his neck. otherwise those guys would have had much longer success. until foster does something similar he should be the number 1 dog in all of fantasy football.

  11. Pac_Eddy says:

    I’m going with the OVER. He should beat 1500 total yards easily. The TDs will come as they have in the last few years.

  12. Verb says:

    I’m over on both for one more year. Hahahaha, and my guess is that at this time next year, I will say over on both for one more year AGAIN. This dude is good. The Texans do a fine job of finding ways to get him the ball in places where he can succeed. Greg Jones is real good and from what I understand, Vonta Leach wants to come back who is actually better. I think you always put the lines fairly close to what I would predict but I’m thinking 1575 and 14 tds.

    Good Stuff Eric

  13. The nugjuice says:

    I remember 2 years ago when everyone left Marshawn Lynch for dead. People pointed to his aggressive running style, almost 1k carries under his belt, and declining ypc in his last 3 years (4.1, 3.8, 3.6). I think he went in the 5th-6th round.

    Look what happened there. He went on to have the 2 highest ypc seasons of his career (4.2, 5.0) and doubled his avg. TD’s per season.

    My point is, past performance doesn’t indicate future results.

    The thing that bothers me most about Foster (and the reason I won’t be drafting him) is because you need to blow a stupid high pick on him to nab Ben Tate. Every time I draft Foster someone thinks they’re cute and reaches for him in the 7th round. Compared to other first-round backs (who have admittedly more opaque backup situations) he goes a full 4-5 earlier.

    • Eric Olinger says:

      I think handcuffing stars is stupid. Rarely is the backup capable to step in and not miss a beat. I would rather just grab a different RB. The only time I have a more than one RB from the same team is when I don’t know who will win the job, like St. Louis this year, and to a much lesser extent the Jets. If I have Ben Tate on my Foster led team it’s only because I thought Tate was better than the rest available.

  14. BB Wayne says:

    Damn it Eric, quit being so high on Foster. I’m still trying to get him in a few leagues!

    Seriously, the downfall of Namaste is way over blown. Last year was a down year because of YPC? Well, the entire right side of the o line was new and the zone blocking scheme is not easy to master. As the season wore on, other then the Vikings game, Foster’s YPC went up!

    It’s like all the rage of rookie picks in Dynasty start ups and people forget who has produced. Although this is Dynasty, player windows should be no more then 3 years except maybe for QBs.

  15. Kaleb says:

    I’m thinking about trying to trade Spiller and Vick for a better QB and lesser RB (6 pts for passing TDs). What do you guys think would be good value? 16 team, non ppr

    • Mike Ditka says:

      non sequitur

    • Eric Olinger says:

      Spiller has an ADP of 7.17 in May’s dynasty start up drafts. He alone should get you your pick of QBs. With the 6 pts for TDs though I am betting you will have a hard time getting Rodgers or Luck but anyone besides those two should be easily attainable.

      • Kaleb says:

        ADP of 7.17? That seems really low, I’m guessing that was a typo?

        • Eric Olinger says:

          My apologies, he’s being drafted 6th overall. His average draft position is 7.17. That is not in the seventh round. In the six mock drafts in May he went 8, 4, 11, 6, 6, 8. That’s where the 7.17 comes from, 43/6= 7.17.

          Sorry for the confusion.

          • Kaleb says:

            Ahhh, my mistake for not understanding. I’d post in the forum but haven’t been approved by an admin yet, so sorry about this. Trying to get Stafford and D. Wilson for Vick, Spiller and any one/combo of any of the following guys: S. Rice, J. Wright, or S. Johnson. What’s a fair offer/value?

          • Eric Olinger says:

            Is that S. Johnson as in Stevie Johnson, WR BUF? I wouldn’t want to give up Stevie Johnson in the deal. You are giving up the best player in the deal with Spiller. I think Vick, Spiller, and S. Rice should be enough for Stafford and Wilson. I would even consider throwing in a 3rd round pick or later if it meant keeping Stevie.

  16. Kaleb says:

    Haha, I know, but there’s not really anywhere else to put this. I figured the most recent article was the best place to post? A.K.A. I’m a moron. Thanks Ditka

  17. FFAdvisorcom says:

    Over/Over

    The yards is close to a no brainer for me, the TDs may be very close

  18. TheFFGhost says:

    I do find it funny that so many in the fantasy community are so ready to write Foster off due to “overuse” yet can’t wait to go out and draft a rookie who has had over 650 carries in the past two years (Ball). For reference Foster has had around 630 rushes in the past two years.

  19. Preston says:

    Agree that some have gone too far with downgrading Foster, but I do have some concerns. Perhaps my biggest concern is his declining returns in the passing game (his yards/reception dropped by more than 50%), and given they just got Hopkins, expect the downward trend to continue there. I’m also not sure why Richardson gets the volatility label with lots of his points coming from TDs when Foster himself got 90 points from TDs last yr. TR has always been good at finding the end zone, in college and now in the NFL.

    I certainly don’t have him down at 8 or 9, but I also don’t have him at one. I also think it is a bit misleading to be knocking Charles as not as consistent as Foster from an injury perspective, given he took a freak injury and that really is the only time he has missed.

    If I can find an owner who has him ranked at RB9/10, I think I would be buying.

    • Preston says:

      To reply to myself, I see a lot of comments about overuse. I truly believe overuse only manifests itself in that when you are used more, your efficiency goes down, it has to. I think that is the biggest driver of the overuse idea, not so much the actual fact that they got some magical number of touches.

    • Eric Olinger says:

      The Richardson label comes from a poor YPC and total rushing yards. Trent Richardson’s fantasy season was deemed a success because he had a high number of TDs and he caught a lot of balls out of the backfield. As a pure runner, he was less than impressive. Combine that with the same “repeat lower leg injuries” people say about Foster and it’s a roll of the dice with TRich. I would take him in the top 5 but no way I would take him over Martin or Foster right now. Spiller and Charles round out my Top5 in a changing daily kind of order.

      • Preston says:

        Fair enough, and a good point. I would offer, however, that his YPC was only slightly worse than Foster this past year, with a worse offensive line, and a worse passing game. Couple in that he has already shown he is going to catch more passes than Foster, and it seems outside of his durability concerns, he might actually be safer than Foster. I guess it is hard for me to say that, and I’m still taking Foster over TR in a redraft for this year, but I think it is fairly close. Foster also had a lot more touches than TR, which likely accounts for why his YPC was only slightly higher than TR, especially since Foster has shown us he can be really efficient, something we have yet to see from Mr Richardson.

        It is an interesting debate that likely won’t end until say December.

  20. itapthat123 says:

    what is his whole like average of touch downs

  21. The whole process of brochure design is taken quite seriously in the present business scenario.
    And now the bed is filled with a peony and
    the hill is awash in lily-of-the-valley. To view
    her body of articles ‘click’ Tina Ranieri, National Holistic Health Examiner,
    or Atlanta Fishing Examiner.

  22. Current style Air The nike air jordan 23 was released in February of 2008 and since Michael Jordan could be retiring, Gentry Humphrey, the head of advertising for the Nike jordans Brand, said this will probably be finally one.

  23. Champs Sports always gives you something on created — usually many things, as a matter of real truth. Whether you would need new running shoes, running apparel, the right backpack, a watch, or a duffel bag, chances are, you can secure something at a reduced sale outlay. Look for a new “Highlight Deals” along with bargains such whereas two pairs of running shoes because of less than $90, five tee tops for less because $20 and a great deal of more.

  24. シューズプーマ サマンサベガ バック http://www.bagsradios.com/

  25. Smithb518 says:

    Very nice! badbekdeed

Leave a Comment


− two = 6