39 Responses to “Heroes for a Half Price?”

  1. Jim says:

    I agree on the premise of this article. Back in 2000 I was able to acquire Donovan McNabb for Shaun King. This was the start of Mcnabb’s 2nd year and needless to say this trade paid off handsomely for me.

    • Eric Olinger says:

      I traded Donovan McNabb straight up for Aaron Brooks. That was almost even for a season or two but McNabb’s longevity was the difference.

  2. sugbear65 says:

    One toy stands out in particular when rememberingy adolescence, and that would be “The Real American Hero!”. I remember having massive GI Joe wars with my brother growing up, the biggest of which would involve firecrackers, a BB gun, a sling shot, and a very large sand box.

    • sugbear65 says:

      As for value targets, Andre Brown, S. Hill, D. Woodhead, G. Jennings, and M. Colsten are a few guys I would like to pursue because they all seem to come at a pretty nice discount, at least in my experience.

    • Eric Olinger says:

      I was never a G.I. Joe kid. Transformers, Ninja Turtles, He-Man, and wrestling guys were my childhood.

  3. Kyle says:

    Brown will not finish anywhere close to Wilson in fantasy points, just like Thomas Jones didn’t finish anywhere close to Jamaal Charles back in 2010.

    • ShowMe says:


    • ninotoreS says:

      No. This comparison isn’t valid.

      You’re missing all of five important points that make Wilson-Brown an invalid parallel to Charles-Jones:

      1.) Charles’ timeshare with Jones didn’t exclude him from passing-downs (he caught 45 passes that year). Wilson, however, is unlikely to play on passing-downs. The Giants trust Brown’s pass-protection skills far more, and according to Eli last year they also love him in the screen-game.

      2.) Charles still got 1st and Goal carries in 2010, despite the committee. Unlike the projected situation with Wilson and Brown, the Chiefs were as likely to hand Charles the rock in the red-zone as they were Jones.

      3.) The Chiefs offense was heavily run-first. They handed the ball off to the Charles-Jones committee 475 times. Charles himself got 230 touches. This is *very* unlike the Giants offense, which is pass-first. Bradshaw as the feature-back last year averaged only 15 carries a game in that offense, and Bradshaw generally stayed on the field for 3rd downs if he wasn’t being rested… Wilson however projects to come off the field automatically for just about every 3rd down, for every obvious passing-down, and for every 1st and Goal carry.

      4.) Andre Brown at age 26 shouldn’t be compared to Thomas Jones *at age 31*. Jones averaged only 3.7 YPC in 2010. The Jones’ legs abruptly gave up the ghost in 2010, as so often happens with +30 running-backs. Brown, however, averaged 5 yards a carry last, and that was even with him getting mostly short-yardage work that usually predicates a lower YPC than normal.

      5.) And finally, the biggest point of all: Wilson is a play-maker, but still not approaching the home-run-from-anywhere threat that Charles was in 2010. Charles is MUCH faster than Wilson: he runs a 4.36 40, compared to Wilson’s 4.49. Much of the reason Charles was so huge in 2010 was because he had a highlight reel filled with huge gains on single carries, thanks to that speed… speed Wilson simply doesn’t have.

      • Preston says:

        Regarding point 3, I would be somewhat shocked if Wilson ended up playing on under 5% of 3rd down as you imply. Also in every obvious passing down? Seems like a stretch. Pretty typical for a guy who has been in the league for some time (Brown) to be a better pass blocker than a rookie. Would be stunned if Wilson doesn’t get it to a level that gets him on the field this year.

    • Eric Olinger says:

      In 2010, Thomas Jones received more carries than Jamaal Charles. That is my point, people are viewing Wilson’s homerun ability and acting like he will be a feature back. Truth is, he has ball security issues, limited short yardage appeal, and his pass protection is a work in progress.

      I’m simply saying Andre Brown is going to be a factor.

  4. toine says:

    Andre Brown owners need a serious reality check…

    • ninotoreS says:

      Brown was basically automatic last year on 1st and goal, and even on 2-point conversions. His TD conversion rate on those carries was gaudy. Iirc, he only had three goal-to-go carries that didn’t breach the end-zone last year.

      Wilson is a great talent, and by far the preferred dynasty property (Brown is a free-agent next year and if he continues to vulture TDs at the rate he is it’s likely the Giants won’t be able to outbid other teams for him), but if a committee RB in a pass-first offense isn’t getting enough TDs, his fantasy production simply isn’t going to be all that amazing.

  5. Scott Peak says:

    Nice article Eric.

    I really like Dwayne Allen and Coby Fleener, relative to their values. In my start-ups, I’ve been targeting both as they are cheap (Allen ADP 142 and Fleener 165), in an offense that favors TEs, and they have the best young QB in the NFL in Andrew Luck. All the signs point to a short strike passing offense in Indy this year. I’ve been doubling up on Allen, who finished as the #2 TE per PFF in 2012, and Fleener in start-ups given their cheap price and potential for gain in value.

  6. Chris in Chuck says:

    I like Greg Little and Bryce Brown as solid values that may be cheap or free (waiver wire) in some leagues.

    A roster cannot have 20 starters and you need some 2-for-1 trades to upgrade some spots. So those sorts of long-ish shot bench warmers can garner points as stand-ins or create value to facilitate further upgrades. Can be the key to long-term success.

    (Going for the all-time record for appropriate usage of dashes. You’re welcome!)

    • Scott Peak says:

      Agreed on Little and Brown. Little’s stock has especially been beaten down. He could surprise in that Norv Turner offense, especially with Gordon’s issues. The word is getting out about Brown. Grab him while you can. I’ve also been picking up Chris Polk for my deep roster dynasty leagues given how run-heavy that offense might be. Nice calls. I like it.

      • Neo says:

        What word is getting out on Brown? I’m a McCoy owner. Should I consider making a move for him?

        • Eric Olinger says:

          It has been publicly stated by everyone involved that Chip Kelly runs a two back system due to the pace of play. McCoy is still the heavy favorite to own. Brown will have some stand alone value as a RB3/4 with upside.

          No need to panic!

        • Scott Peak says:

          Also check out fishduck.com. That has a ton of information about the Chip Kelly offense at Oregon. It’s easy to see how the top two RBs in that system could be valuable. Obviously McCoy is clearly the top guy, but Brown might have flex/RB3 value as Eric noted.

        • Neo says:

          Noted. Thanks, guys.

        • ninotoreS says:

          Of course McCoy is the one to own, but you should make a move for Brown just in case McCoy gets injured. And considering he projects to be McCoy’s handcuff for the foreseeable future this season and beyond, he’s a valid dynasty investment for you as well.

    • ninotoreS says:

      No one on the planet will agree with me at this point, but I suspect Davone Bess is going to outplay Gregg Little this year in that new-look Browns offense.

      Bess is a lot more talented than people seem to appreciate.


      Just look at some of these catches. Dude’s a player.

      • Eric Olinger says:

        The problem with Bess is he offers no after the catch yardage. Throwing a pass to Davone Bess is like throwing a bean bag. It’s not going to go any further than where it landed.

        I don’t disagree with your suspicion of Bess outplaying Little though. I really hope Little gets it together. His highlight reel coming out of UNC was quite impressive.

  7. deathmagnetic83 says:

    Same thing with Reggie Wayne when Marvin Harrison was still around.

  8. invisibulman says:

    Michael Floyd and/or Andre Roberts. All the focus has been on how Fitz is going to bounce back this year with a decent QB finally arriving in Arizona. Floyd was far too quickly forgotten. I, as many other did, had him even or ahead of Blackmon last year in rookie drafts.

    Blackmon, still catching passes from Gabbert plus suspended for 4 games, gets an ADP of 54. Floyd, now with Carson Palmer throwing the rock, sits at ADP 102… explain that one to me.

    • Eric Olinger says:

      Perfect example. I have been going hard after Floyd all off-season. That’s partly the Notre Dame fan in me but it’s also because I think he is in prime position to EXPLODE this year.

  9. phantasy5 says:

    Very interesting Eric, well done. As far as the toys goes, I too had GI Joe’s as a young child and enjoyed them, you are obviously a younger guy, I have kids that played with Transformers and Ninja Turtles…LOL! My real love came when I discovered “Hot Wheels” and Tyco electric race cars sets….Wow, that takes me back, thanks! Now onto the task at hand, I already own some of these guys and will mention a few more. I acquired Bradshaw for a third rd. pick which is decent value. I have Woodhead and Jeffery as mentioned and I intend on holding onto them. I acquired Matthews at a fairly low price as well, not bad for RB2. I also like DX and Vereen as value targets with upside as well.

    • Eric Olinger says:

      Thanks, I’m 32. I haven’t been called a “younger guy” in a little while now. The cool thing about toys is they’ve brought all the cool stuff back out. My boy has Ninja Turtles, a couple Transformers, and a bunch of Star Wars toys. I get to be a kid again when we play with his (my) toys.

      I have been a big DX fan. I’ve had him multiple times over the years. His stretch to close 2012 was no surprise to me. I really hope his knees are healthy.

  10. Raider Nation says:

    It’s all speculation until week 1. With that said, Wilson will be a stud within the next two years.

  11. huberb says:

    salary cap 12 team keeper league
    start 1QB, 2RB, 3WR, 1TE, 1K, 1DEF
    roster size 18

    which of these guys have enough upside to hold over vs which ones should i drop and draft out the the deep WR pool this year?

    i have my starters VJax, R.Cobb, J.Nelson, need some cheap young solid upside holdovers for future years (5 more players)

    Reuben Randle NYG
    M.Sanu CIN
    R.Broyles DET
    S.Holmes NYJ
    T.Smith BAL
    N.Toon NO
    D.Moore OAK
    J.Ford OAK
    T.Streeter BAL

  12. samjudd99 says:

    Call me a sucker but I have got Jon Baldwin cheap in my leagues, hopefully this is the year he hits

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