30 Responses to “When Owner Frustration Pays Off”

  1. Rob says:

    I think in recent years we’ve all been spoiled by players that come out and immediately produce. Guys like Cam, AJG, Julio, RGIII, and Luck (to name a few) are really an exception, not the rule. So, finding those impatient owners and grabbing up those players perceived to have talent, but have not shown it right away is a way to pay pennies on the dollar.

  2. Derek Willett says:

    Absolutely true. At this time last year, Michael Crabtree was essentially the same player that Greg Little is right now. Outside of the players I addressed in the article, there are a ton of options that you could take a gamble on. Just choose the guys you’re confident in and take a chance. Nearly every team I own has 5-6 similar options sitting on the bench, ready for a potential breakout.

    This year, outside of the guys I mentioned, I’m a heavy investor in Leonard Hankerson, Jake Locker, and Greg Little.

    I’ve also found that pairing up Jonathan Stewart and Mark Ingram as my RB2 or 3 is something that I’m fond of. I am confident that one of the two will break out this season, so I lock up both of them and let it play out.

    • brianchenry says:

      Great article. I especially like your piece on Santonio Holmes. I couldn’t give him away last year, but am excited to see what he can do with Smith throwing his way.
      Why are you a heavy investor in Locker? Is it because his price is so low and that he’s only 24 with 2 years of experience? I’ve been somewhat pessimistic about him lately after Jared Cook signed with St. Louis.

      • Derek Willett says:

        Yeah, the pricetag is pretty much the reason. I’m not particularly optimistic about him, but he is so cheap (especially in start-ups) he’s worth taking a shot on.

        • Magma says:

          Very nice article. I’m guilty of being a Crabtree owner, had patience for 3 yrs, then last yr at this time, I gave up on him. I offered up Crabtree, V.Brown, M.Leshoure for A.Brown. I still like A.Browns upside, but dang..Crabtree went off. I have D.Thomas, Cobb, D.Alexander anyway, but with Crabtree I really would’ve been sick loaded. Lessoned learned and I even tried to give him time.

          I’m big on Hankerson, Baldwin, Broyles……Hankerson is in the perfect situation and somebodies gotta take it. Baldwin is a physical beast, very similar to Dez if you watch his tape, QB play has pulled him down and he just hasn’t had many targets. I think he truly breaks out when he goes to a different team w a solid QB, whenever that may be. Broyles is just the #2 guy in a offense of 5000 pass yds. Mega Tron can’t get it all.

  3. gereinc says:

    Oh yeah. These are my absolute favorite players to target. Last year I was offered Victor Cruz and 2 rookie picks for Dez Bryant. I jumped all over it. As soon as Alex Smith got hurt, I traded Amendola for Crabtree staight up, just hoping Kaepernick would make a difference.

    Take some chances and unload assets for 2nd and 3rd year players that haven’t produced yet. I think Ingram is a great guy to target. Kenny Britt is a great guy to target. Stephen Hill has been left for dead and he was probably a 2nd round pick in most leagues last year. He wouldn’t cost you a 2nd rounder now. Sam Bradford is also someone I would target. The list goes on and on.

    • gereinc says:

      Sorry I meant I was offered 2 rookie picks and Dez for Cruz.

    • Derek Willett says:

      Kenny Britt is finally at the point where I’m willing gamble on him a little bit. Even at this time last year, his cost was too much for me, but right now, he’s dirt cheap.

      As for Stephen Hill, I think he has a shot, but I’m not a huge fan. With that said, I have a couple leagues where I buried Holmes, Hill, and Kerley on my roster. One of them will likely break out in a big way with Geno. My money is on Holmes, but it could be any of the three. Kerley is probably the best value of the group though.

      • Zounder says:

        So if you had the opportunity to swap Kerley for Holmes in a one-for-one, you’d take it? I am concerned partially due to Holmes’ injury but also his uncertain future past this year.

        • Derek Wilett says:

          I would take Holmes if it was just a straight swap, because I think he’s going to be a safety valve for Geno Smith.

          In a lot of leagues where I own Holmes, I’ve also made it a point to grab Kerley as well. Kerley’s cost is minimal (and in some cases, he’s on the waiver wire), so he’s worth a stash.

  4. WZA says:

    Can we please stop with the JStew love? The guy will be RBBC for life. Get over it!

    • Derek Willett says:

      The thing is, he is being drafted at RBBC prices now, so you aren’t paying the crazy prices of a few years ago. Like the others on this list, he’s moved from a point where he was overvalued to a point where he is undervalued.

      Now is when you can take advantage of the situation… and owners who have a similar view as you. Is it a risk? Absolutely, but the cost is cheap, so it’s not a big loss if you miss.

      • WZA says:

        Valid point.

        Other than being RBBC, he’s also always banged up. Problems with his Achilles, ankle, hamstring, etc. Although he hasn’t missed many games in his career, I just think he’s a bit soft which is why he probably never will be The Guy. I have a feeling he loves being in a RBBC situation…extends his career, which maximizes his earning potential, and with little stress of being the lead back.

        Call me crazy, but I’d rather take my chances on some other RB.

        • Derek Willett says:

          I definitely agree on the injury front. I am a Panthers fan (I’m fairly hard on Carolina players, so my opinion of him isn’t clouded by homerism), and he has frustrated me a lot with the missed practices and regular illnesses, etc. as you pointed out though, it usually doesn’t cause him to miss playing time, so it’s just an annoyance more than anything.

          I understand preferring to go in another direction. I tend to like to take a chance at a home run option, and I think he offers that. As with everything else though, it’s just my. opinion.

          • sixshooter says:

            Yeah…..I still say DeAngelo is with another team this year but have been saying that for a year and a half and am still wrong….LOL!

    • Scott Peak says:

      Nice article Derek. I agree in principle that acquiring players who have disappointed owners can pay off handsomely. I like Ingram as a buy low this year. PT Cruiser and Sproles are both getting older. It sounds strange but Sproles will be 30 at kick-off. Pierre Thomas is 28. Another factor is stability in the coaching staff. Sean Payton isn’t going anywhere, and he traded up to get Ingram. With so much invested in Ingram, I think he will pay off for dynasty owners who trade for him now, IF you can get him at a reasonable discount.

      I was one of those owners who traded Crabtree last year. I didn’t give up on him, but I could only keep 9 offensive players, and had to move somebody. I ended up trading Crabtree for the pick that got me Lamar Miller. I hope it works out, but last year I was really bummed about it.

      I will say, I am off the Jonathan Stewart bandwagon. The guy is in a horrible situation, has a terrible coaching staff that is about to be flushed in 2014, and is injury prone. I’m not touching Stewart in start-ups no matter how far he falls, and I won’t trade for him either.

      Keep up the great work Derek! Insightful stuff…

      • Derek Willett says:

        Thanks Scott!

        I understand that Stewart is a guy that seems to have a lot going against him, but I firmly believe that his time is here. With Chudzinski out as offensive coordinator (and with him, the over-complicated play calling that crippled the team last year), I think the Panthers will return to a more focused run game.

        While DeAngelo Williams is still going to be a part of the offense, I believe that they will give Stewart the chance to take over a defined top role in the offense.

        If you’re correct, as I think you will be, about this being the final year of the coaching staff, it’s likely to be a positive for Stewart’s future. Jerry Richardson and now David Gettleman believe in a coaching staff that is focused on running the ball into the ground. Regardless of who is hired, you can bet that they will have a run-first approach to the offense. With DeAngelo likely gone, you’ll have Stewart with Kenjon Barner and Tolbert behind him. Neither guy would be a serious threat to steal a huge amount of touches.

        I’m a long-time Panthers fan and have stayed away from Stewart in dynasty leagues because I always knew that DeAngelo Williams was more of a threat than most realized. This is the first year that I’m actually targeting him…and I think it’s going to pay off.

  5. Paul says:

    Santonio Holmes is definitely on the same level as Brian Hartline. Probably higher.

  6. Eric says:

    I see what you did there. Not falling for it. I only have one team left to purge Jonathon Stewart then I’ll never have to own him again.

    If I’m wrong so be it, but I would much rather gamble on Ingram or another young rookie than continue waiting for the payoff that will never come. He’s already 26 and has yet to earn his lead role. If and when he earns it he’ll be like Michael Turner and have 2 good years…I’d rather gamble on a lottery ticket in the rookie draft.

  7. nfllionblood says:

    I agree with Santonio Holmes and Jonathan Stewart. Especially because they can be drafted as a WR4, or RB3 and could easily be better than that. I’m not convinced Deangelo will move on after this year. He certainly could, but every year, I expect them to cut him for financial reasons. He may be smarter taking a pay cut.

    I expect the Jets to be losing a lot of games and throwing late in games to catch up. I wouldn’t want to start Holmes with his back and foot injuries, but to have him as a reserve would be great. I think he has 100 catch upside if the Jets are as bad as I expect.

    I want Tony Gonzalez because we get compensatory picks in my new dynasty league if guys are still producing at a high level. 1st Round compensatory pick if guys retire as a top 8 player at their position. 2nd Round if guys retire as a top 16 player. There haven’t been too many who retire as studs, but he could easily give me an extra rookie pick next year.

  8. DP says:

    Great article! I was just curious if you think that Ryan Mathews might finally break out this season?

    Thanks.

    • Derek Wilett says:

      Thanks for the kind words.

      I do like Mathews to perform well if he manages to stay healthy (I know…huge IF). For me, his cost is still at the point where the reward doesn’t outweigh the risk.

      A little off subject, but I’m investing heavily in Danny Woodhead. Not only is he likely to get a ton of playing time if another Mathews injury happens, but he’ll be involved quite a bit regardless.

      He is an insanely cheap option for the bottom of your roster. He may even replace Pierre Thomas as my favorite emergency fill-in RB.

      • DP says:

        Thanks for the response :) About a month ago I accepted a trade of Percy Harvin and Ryan Mathews for Reggie Bush and Eric Decker…so I hope to the football gods that Mathews stays healthy. lol. I’ll see if I can pull something off to acquire Woodhead.

  9. failblazer says:

    Golden Tate is another interesting one to look out for I think. His price is damn low and he could really flourish.

    Great article.

  10. phantasy5 says:

    Good piece Derek, keep it up! I’m afraid I had to cut Holmes because of the numbers game and that kind of sucks but I’m not too concerned about it. There’s no guarantee on if and when Geno will play and coupled with that the injury thing made him expendable. With that said I would pick him back up in the later rounds if available just because he once was a proven player when healthy and with good QB as well. I’ve never been a JStew fan so he’s out. I like the prospect of Ingram & Freeman though, good gets! I traded away Sproles to the owner with Ingram & Gonzo so that’s dead for me. I did acquire Matthews in a trade because I love that situation as far as risk/ reward and it doesn’t hurt that I own Woodhead too!

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