DLF Dynasty League Draft Breakdown: Part One

Eric Hardter

andrew_luck3Much like with any job interview, before I got my start at DLF I had to fill out a questionnaire.  Within this survey, one of the questions posed to me read, “How would you integrate yourself within the group of writers we currently have?”  After undoubtedly writing far too long an answer, I concluded my response with the following:  “Moreover, is there any better way to get to know your co-workers than playing fantasy football with them?  If you’re starting a new league, let me know!”

Well, several months later, here we are.

The head honchos presented the idea of forming a pair of team-only leagues, and whether it’s due to a love of competition, an inability to say “no” to additional dynasty goodness, or the fact they’re free-rolling the thing (note:  this part doesn’t hurt), we all joined in.  Since we recently concluded our initial draft, and delving into the anatomy of a startup league is a great way to obtain multiple viewpoints on how best to build a dynasty, I decided to expand upon how it turned out.

In that spirit, what follows is a detailed team-by-team breakdown of the (non-IDP) DLF Dynasty League draft.  Highlighted within each team capsule is a listing of players, including personalized comments and comparisons to the May ADP data, as well as each owner’s strategy.  To supplement this, I’ll include my own observations on what I consider to be each team’s biggest strengths and weaknesses.

Before I begin, let’s cover the pertinent league specifications:

  • 12 owners
  • 25-player rosters
  • Starting positions: one QB, one RB, two WR’s, one TE and three FLEX positions (RB/WR/TE)
  • Standard WCOFF scoring, including one point per reception
  • Trading was allowed during the draft, including 2014 rookie draft picks (four rounds)
  • Six teams make the playoffs:  the top four teams by record (the top two teams receive first-round byes), and the next two by points scored

Without further adieu, let’s get started!  Part One today will detail the first four teams, and subsequent installments will cover the rest.

Spawns of Sweetness – Jacob Feldman

Pertinent Players:

Projected Starters            
Name Team Position Pick ADP Change Notes
Andrew Luck Colts QB 32 41.8 -9.8 He’s 10+ years younger than Brees and if he takes a step forward in year two he could put up numbers that approach the top tier as soon as this year.
Jamaal Charles Chiefs RB 8 8.9 -0.9 Wanted LeSean McCoy, but I guess I’ll just need to take the player that will be taking McCoy’s role with Andy Reid being in KC.
Larry Fitzgerald Cardinals WR 31 26.8 4.2 His work ethic and dedication to his craft makes me think that he can still produce at age 30+. If he had a quality young quarterback he would easily be a top 15 pick.
Roddy White Falcons WR 45 42.8 2.2 Age is a bit of a concern, but White hasn’t ever missed even a game in his career. I think he’ll be a solid WR2 in that offense for another 3 years.
Jason Witten Cowboys TE 65 59.5 5.5  Ultimately decided to go Witten because I think he is the last “sure thing” at the TE position. The drop from him to the next TE is too big in my eyes not to take him.
Chris Johnson Titans FLEX 41 27 14 He isn’t young, but I’m expecting a bit of a bounceback from him. I’m not a huge fan of his, but he was nice value in the mid-4th.
Frank Gore 49ers FLEX 88 68.7 19.3 If he can help lead me to the championship in this first year with RB1 numbers, he is worth an 8th round pick
Tavon Austin Rams FLEX 59 63.7 -4.7 I needed a little youth in my WR group. Two rookies gone already, but my top rookie is still sitting there. There is some risk that he might bust, but I think that risk is fairly limited.
Key Subs
Andre Brown Giants RB 112 101 11 He’s highly underrated in my opinion. The Giants share the wealth enough to make him and Wilson fantasy viable for the next few years.
Isaiah Pead Rams RB 128 119.3 8.7 I think the backfield in STL will be Stacy in short yardage/goal line and Pead for most of the rest.
Mohamed Sanu Bengals WR 137 162.3 -25.3 Sanu should be AJ Green’s wingman, and he is good enough to beat the single coverage he will face. He has nice WR2/WR3 upside.
Cecil Shorts Jaguars WR 83 82.2 0.8 Shorts will provide some nice youth to my WR corps.
Sleepers
Joseph Morgan Saints WR 200 198.7 1.3 A young, fast receiver that Drew Brees seems to like. What more could you ask for in the 17th round?
Emmanuel Sanders Steelers WR 160 136.3 23.7 He’s young and has a nice opportunity. The Steelers tend to pass for around 4000 yards and someone needs to catch the balls there.
James Casey Eagles TE 257 229.2 27.8 Chip Kelly’s game plan is unknown at this point in time. Casey is very athletic and has nice hands. Who knows what kind of role he will fill.
Da’Rick Rogers Bills WR 161 146.7 14.3  I’ll swing for the fences here. I actually think he is the most skilled receiver on the Bills’ roster. If he can figure it out off the field (which is a big if), he could be a steal.

Other Players:  QBAlex Smith, KC; RBDonald Brown, IND, Montario Hardesty, CLE, Ronnie Hillman, DEN, Kendall Hunter, SF, Mike James, TB, Mikel Leshoure, DET, Beanie Wells, FA; TEAntonio Gates

2014 Draft PicksSecond Round – two; Third Round – two; Fourth Round – two

Jacob’s Strategy:  I wanted to trade my second round pick for additional third and fourth round selections.  I ended up giving up picks in the second and 15th rounds, along with a 2014 rookie first round pick for picks in the third and fourth rounds, as well as a 2014 second rounder.  I also wanted to trade my picks away for bumps up to go after players I knew I wanted.  Conversely, I tried to acquire bumps in later rounds or take future draft picks to slide back a few spots when I knew there were multiple players I liked.

Overall, I wanted to get a stud quarterback and proven veteran talent for my starters.  Often times the 28+ year old receivers and tight ends and 26+ old running backs will be more productive and come at a cheaper price than their younger counterparts. I then filled in behind that core group of veterans with lots of higher upside players, just taking guys that fell to me.

My Take:  In terms of starters, I think Jacob has one of the strongest groups in the league.  He’s very top-heavy at running back with Charles, Johnson and Gore, and also boasts established pass-catchers with White, Fitzgerald and Witten.  For the most part, he was also able to get his picks later than the ADP data suggested he should.

My biggest criticisms are his overall team age and lack of receiver depth.  Though I believe Jacob is a strong contender now, his team as it stands likely lacks longevity past the next few years unless a large proportion of his younger players pan out.  Speaking to his receiving corps, starting the unproven Tavon Austin is a risky bet, and his best backup, Cecil Shorts III, was concussed twice last season.  None of his other receivers have the look of future stars.

Beach Life – Eric Dickens

Pertinent Players:

Projected Starters            
Name Team Position Pick ADP Change Notes
Sam Bradford Rams QB 107 154.2 -47.2 Wanted to add a QB earlier, but waited too long. Bradford as my QB1 is risky, but I think he benefited from the NFL Draft, has been underappreciated, and is still improving.
Doug Martin Bucs RB 4 3 1 I felt like he was the last of the top tier and an anchor for my team.
Antonio Brown Steelers WR 62 59.7 2.3 Not the flashiest receiver but felt like he was great value in the sixth round.
Kenny Britt Titans WR 76 80.3 -4.3 I wanted a high upside guy as my WR2 that was young and had WR1 potential. Britt is that guy, although he comes with such off the field issues that he’s obviously a big risk.
Rob Gronkowski Patriots TE 21 19.5 1.5 My top TE on the board, a little surprised he was available in the late second round.
Giovani Bernard Bengals FLEX 28 40.3 -12.3 Possibly a reach, but love his skill set and long term outlook with the Bengals.
Eddie Lacy Packers FLEX 64 52 12 I’m  happy with the long term prospects of Lacy, especially as my third RB after Martin and Bernard.
Miles Austin Cowboys FLEX 105 104.8 0.2 I couldn’t ignore Austin falling any further. I’m higher on him than most, but I felt like this was getting him very cheaply.
Key Subs
Mark Ingram Saints RB 93 93.7 -0.7 Adding another young RB to my group. Felt like Ingram was good value in the eighth round.
EJ Manuel Bills QB 141 148.8 -7.8 I wanted to grab a high upside young QB to pair with Bradford. Manuel is my top-rated rookie QB and has an opportunity to put up points with his rushing ability.
Michael Floyd Cardinals WR 100 102.8 -2.8 Young, talented, and paired with an elite WR in an offense that should help the passing game flourish.
AJ Jenkins 49ers WR 203 209.3 -6.3 Might be the forgotten guy in SF, but between he and Patton, I should have the WR2 in SF for years.
Sleepers
Marvin Jones Bengals WR 189 217.3 -28.3 One of my pre-draft favorites from last year. Hoping he grabs onto the WR2 spot opposite Green in Cincy.
Chris Gragg Bills TE 244 230.5 13.5 Could surprise in Buffalo if Chandler misses a lot of time.
Quinton Patton 49ers WR 148 172.5 -24.5 I really like the skill set that Patton has and after Crabtree/Davis, I’m not sure much is standing in his way in SF.
Ahmad Bradshaw ? RB 165 150.2 14.8 Just couldn’t let him keep falling. I don’t trust his feet, but at this point in the draft, he was worth the pick.

Other Players:  QB – TJ Yates, HOU; RB – Roy Helu, WSH, Dennis Johnson, HOU; WR – Doug Baldwin, SEA, LaVon Brazill, IND, Brandon Gibson, MIA, Tavarres King, DEN; TE – Coby Fleener, IND

2014 Draft PicksFirst Round – three; Second Round – two; Third Round – one; Fourth Round – one

Eric’s Strategy:  I went into the draft wanting to try a different strategy, especially since I knew many of the guys would be trying to do the exact same thing as I normally do. Instead, I chose to go ultra young, punt the 2013 season (and maybe 2014, unfortunately) and build around young, workhorse running backs and a top tier tight end. I knew by doing so, that would leave me with volatility at the WR position, so I decided to make my most of my picks at the position based on upside, regardless of the risk associated.

I had originally planned on using an earlier pick on a quarterback like Colin Kaepernick or Russell Wilson, but waited too long. I stayed open to collecting 2014 first round picks by trading down or out of early picks. By doing so, I ended up with three first round picks, and an extra second round pick as well.

Overall, I’m very comfortable with my running backs, tight ends and even quarterbacks.  My receivers, however, are another matter. I have an odd collection of players, most with very high upside and risk to match. If I had to do it over, I probably wouldn’t go so extreme with the strategy, as I felt it weakened my initial roster more than I had intended. It will be interesting to see how it turns out over the next few seasons.

My Take:  I’ll be honest – I absolutely hate the idea of sacrificing immediate success.  With that said, Eric had his strategy and played it perfectly.  He accumulated young talent like Martin, Bernard, Lacy and Gronkowski, and if players like Britt and Austin play to their abilities his starting lineup could be better than it appears at first glance.

Unfortunately, as Eric mentioned, it could be a rough couple of years for his team.  He’ll need the majority of his rookies to pan out, and also needs to hit on a large proportion of his 2014 picks.  Finally, waiting so long for a quarterback (he was the last owner to select one) also resulted in a four-round reach on Bradford, who is no lock for QB1 numbers.  In summation, based on Eric’s strategy it’s tough to grade his team right now, but we should have answers within the next few years.

Eye of the Gator – Jarrett Behar

Pertinent Players:

Projected Starters
Name Team Position Pick ADP Change Notes
Tom Brady Patriots QB 58 54.7 3.3
Maurice Jones-Drew Jaguars RB 39 32.3 6.7
Dez Bryant Cowboys WR 10 12.7 -2.7 Almost traded up for Julio and then just decided to stay put and take Dez.
Brandon Marshall Bears WR 15 17.5 -2.5
Tony Gonzalez Falcons TE 90 96 -6
Lamar Miller Dolphins FLEX 40 37.2 2.8
Reggie Wayne Colts FLEX 82 70.8 11.2
Kendall Wright Titans FLEX 79 88.7 -9.7
Key Subs
Shane Vereen Patriots RB 103 99.7 3.3
Cordarrelle Patterson Vikings WR 63 78 -15 Gonna swing for the fences a little.
Robert Woods Bills WR 130 132.2 -2.2
Owen Daniels Texans TE 159 165.2 -6.2 Since I got sniped on Lance Moore…
Sleepers
Mike Gillislee Dolphins RB 154 152.3 1.7
Josh Boyce Patriots WR 178 203.7 -25.7
Kenny Stills Saints WR 207 231.2 -24.2
Danny Woodhead Chargers RB 202 215 -13

Other PlayersQBJay Cutler, CHI, Brock Osweiler, DEN, Brandon Weeden, CLE; RBMarcel Reece, OAK, Spencer Ware, SEA; WRCorey Fuller, DET, TJ Graham, BUF, Josh Morgan, WSH; TE – Travis Kelce, KC

2014 Draft Picks:  All original picks remaining

Jarrett’s Strategy:  I decided to mix my strategy up a little.  Partly this was due to the fact that my favorite strategy, starting with a high pick and trading back multiple times, was unavailable due to my unusually poor showing in the NCAA pool that determined the draft order (Eric H.’s note: yup, this was totally my idea).  Usually, I try to shore up the core of my team with solid players in their prime, but not yet over the hill and then back that up with youth and an occasional veteran late.

I actually tried to trade up to get Julio Jones, but as the pick got closer, I realized that the price was not commensurate with the difference in value that I place on him and Dez Bryant, even with a tier break between them.  When I got to 2.03, there were so many good options available and I tried my hardest to trade back.  Unfortunately, in a league full of DLF guys, most had the same idea, so it came down to Brandon Marshall and Demaryius Thomas for me.  Even though age was in Thomas’ favor, I felt that was ameliorated by the short shelf life of his quarterback, so I went with the target hog.  With my core of stud receivers, I felt like I was off to a good start.

I then made the conscious decision to go with older guys who I knew would help win know.  Then, keeping in mind that I had to balance the roster out, I selected most of my younger guys.  Having acquired stud receivers early made me feel comfortable taking a gamble on the massive upside of Cordarrelle Patterson in particular.

Finally, one of my favorite late picks is Danny Woodhead at 17.10.  I feel like he is a sneaky PPR play this year and adds good depth cheap.  He reminds me of Darren Sproles going late in startups before his first season in New Orleans, and the San Diego irony is just a bonus.

My Take:  Jarrett is correct that his receiving corps is one of the best in the league.  If Patterson pans out, it could go from scary good to downright frightening.  He also can expect solid veteran production at the other positions, and has some intriguing upside prospects as well.

I think his weaknesses are at tight end and running back.  Gonzalez should offer TE1 production for one more year, but behind him are the aging Daniels and unknown Kelce.  For his ball carriers, I would’ve liked to see a little more certainty.  MJD should produce for a few more years, but Miller comes with no guarantees, and his depth is mostly secondary options on their own NFL team.  Jarrett should contend for a playoff spot, but his team’s future is murky.

Boston TD Party – Jaron Foster

Pertinent Players:

Projected Starters            
Name Team Position Pick ADP Change Notes
Robert Griffin III Redskins QB 36 55.3 -19.3 Clearly expecting that RGIII’s knee will be fine. Going for the upside pick here.
Arian Foster Texans RB 12 8 4 Foster was easily the highest player left on my board. I considered trading down, but the dropoff in RB production was too steep to pass on Arian.
Demaryius Thomas Broncos WR 16 15.8 0.2 Not concerned about much of a dropoff with Welker in town. Future also got a little brighter as Dysert should quickly pass Osweiler as Manning’s successor.
Pierre Garcon Redskins WR 61 56.5 4.5 The value was too good to pass up here.
Dennis Pitta Ravens TE 109 89.5 19.5 Top TE on the board, about time to draft one.
Steven Jackson Falcons FLEX 67 44.8 22.2 He should have a couple big years in Atlanta even though he’s approaching 30.
Stevan Ridley Patriots FLEX 43 36 7 He’s not flashy and doesn’t catch many passes, but the combination of age and opportunity makes him a solid pick.
Lance Moore Saints FLEX 157 125.7 31.3 Solid consistency for a bye week fill-in.
Key Subs
Ben Roethlisberger Steelers QB 156 136.3 19.7 Need a reliable backup QB to RG3, and getting Roethlisberger here is good value.
Ryan Broyles Lions WR 133 126.5 6.5 Talent to be much higher, just needs to stay healthy. Worth the risk with the players on the board at this point.
Justin Hunter Titans WR 108 116.5 -8.5 He’s gone higher than this in two other recent dynasty startups I’ve done. Now just waiting for Britt to fall off the planet.
Alshon Jeffery Bears WR 85 102.7 -17.7 Should see a lot of single coverage opposite Marshall.
Sleepers
Andre Ellington Cardinals RB 180 165.5 14.5 Money’s on him as the best running back on the roster.
Tommy Streeter Ravens WR 252 217.5 34.5 Has size and opportunity.
Jordan Reed Redskins TE 181 219 -38 Reed’s a guy I’m targeting in all startups, love the potential with RG3.
Zac Dysert Broncos QB 253 241 12 Expect him to pass Osweiler and succeed Peyton eventually. Long-term project.

Other PlayersQBTyler Bray, KC, Matt Flynn, OAK; RBMichael Bush, CHI, Miguel Maysonet, CLE; WRDeVier Posey, HOU, Ace Sanders, JAX; TEGavin Escobar, DAL, Brandon Myers, NYG

2014 Draft PicksFirst Round – two; Second Round – two; Fourth Round – one

Jaron’s Strategy:  I’m a proponent of the Best Player Available strategy, especially in leagues like this where there are several FLEX positions. Approaching drafts this way means my first few picks will dictate the tone of the rest of the draft. By taking players including Foster and Jackson early, I decided to (for the most part) play for 2013 and be less concerned with age and wear and tear in this draft.

Solid production trumped upside in many subsequent picks, including Roethlisberger and Moore at the turn of rounds 13 and 14. I did splurge on rookies with Justin Hunter (9.12), Jordan Reed (16.01) and Gavin Escobar (18.01) for their potential values, but am not relying on them for production this year. Pending the emergence of some late-round fliers, I see my team producing solid-if-not-spectacular results every week in 2013.

My Take:  I think Jaron is underselling his team’s 2013 potential.  He’s loaded at running back and has all kinds of upside at quarterback (pending RGIII’s health) and receiver.  Dennis Pitta was also a solid value pick, and should perform as a mid-range TE1 as soon as next year.

The biggest drawback to Jaron’s team is depth.  His best bench player is arguably a quarterback (although I love the selection of Myers as a backup), as he lacks proven production elsewhere.  Yes, there’s a lot of potential there, but as of now that amounts to nothing more than hype.  Jaron is a strong contender right away, but could be only an injury or two away from disaster.

We’ll cover four more teams in tomorrow’s edition!

Follow me on Twitter @EDH_27

eric hardter