Upon Further Review: Rookie Edition
The draft is over and our DLF rankers have decided their fates (for now). One of the more interesting aspects of dynasty is where to rank rookies with the veterans. It’s a super-secretive formula using data analysis and statistics to arrive at said ranking – one I cannot divulge or I will forever be kicked out of what I’ve appropriately named, the DLF Mafiosa. For now, I’ll just tell you it’s a little bit of talent mixed with a pinch of situation and “BAM,” you have your rankings. They’ve been rolled out for a few weeks now and I’m sure there’s been some debate as to where some of us rank certain players. Please comment below if you have any questions on certain rookies, veterans and/or movie titles.
Welcome to the rookie edition of “Upon Further Review.”
To Jarrett Behar and Steve Wyremski: You two yahoos have E.J. Manuel ranked the highest of all the DLF crew. He comes in at #16 and #15, respectively, while his average ranking is #23. Manuel seems to be the quarterback to take in rookie drafts – if you’re unlucky enough to have that need. I realize the Bills have C.J. Spiller and Stevie Johnson as the solid veteran presence, but are you both believers in the rookies they brought in besides Manuel?
Jarrett: I look at it as a matter of upside. Manuel is not going to be anybody’s QB1 and may even be a QB3 on some teams. When I look at the quarterbacks I have ranked behind him – Philip Rivers, Josh Freeman, Jake Locker, Matt Schaub, Jay Cutler, Joe Flacco, Andy Dalton and Mike Vick (leaving out fellow rookie Geno Smith), I see either aging, short-term players or guys that lack top six quarterback upside. Manuel may never reach that potential, but I feel he is a value QB2 play, and I’d rather gamble on the upside than have an underwhelming option like Flacco who I’m never really going to want to start, or really be able to trade for value in standard 12-team, or even 14-team leagues.
Steve: Manuel possesses the upside that few outside of the top ten quarterback range have. After the top ten, I’ll always take upside over adequate or inconsistent play any day. There’s nothing I’d rather in a backup quarterback than a guy with top tier upside. I have Manuel at 15. I can confidently say there isn’t anyone after that spot with the top five potential he possesses. We all know dual threat quarterbacks are becoming the new age “prototypical” quarterback – that’s what Manuel is. He plays well on the move, can complete passes on the move and makes plays with his feet. That dual threat ability is a big advantage in a quarterback. Add 30-40 yards rushing and that’s basically another passing touchdown.
To Eric Dickens: You’ve basically took a stick, looked at the DLF rankers and drew a bold line in front of your feet when you ranked Giovani Bernard. You have him ranked as your #11 RB, while his aggregate is #17. Why are you so high on him and what can we expect this season with Benjarvus Green-Ellis still plodding around in Cincy?
Bernard was my favorite rookie running back pre-draft and landed into an ideal situation in regards to both the team scheme and lack of talent on the depth chart. I really like his skill set as an every-down back, specifically because of his good vision and ability to make tacklers miss. I personally don’t think BJGE is a very dynamic runner and will lose carries to Bernard more and more as the season progresses. Even if Bernard doesn’t get a ton of playing time in 2013, I think he’ll be a RB1 for dynasty owners for many seasons to come.
To Jeff Haverlack: Simple question: Why do you hate Cordarrelle Patterson? I get he went to a team with a terrible quarterback and he’s more raw than fresh caught tuna, but don’t you think he may have landed in the best possible situation with the Vikings? If he’s anything like Percy Harvin, they are the ones who will know how to utilize his skills the best. Couple that with the fact Greg Jennings will be a solid mentor to the kid and I think he has a chance to be successful (at some point). How many years should we expect to wait on Patterson fulfilling his promise? What can we expect this year?
I actually don’t hate Patterson at all. In fact, I think he has the one of the highest upside ratios of any of the first round (fantasy) wide receivers, trailing only Justin Hunter.
Patterson is a physically gifted (and physical) ex-running back who shows his dynamic ability and vision with the ball in his hands. He has natural cut-back ability and is a load in the open field. He’s a decent hands-catcher and is physical off the line of scrimmage as well. On the other hand, he’s also extremely raw in his route tree, tends to be a bit lazy in and out of his breaks and only has a single year of experience for an FBS school. While many believe he has fallen into a horrid situation with Christian Ponder at quarterback, I believe it may serve Patterson well as he’ll get the ball often in crossing patterns and slants utilizing his space dynamic. He won’t have a lot of pressure on him and in year one I expect he’ll start as the fourth receiver behind Jennings, Jerome Simpson and Jarius Wright. I don’t think fantasy owners should expect much more than 525 yards and three touchdowns in his first year and that may be a stretch.
To Ryan McDowell: Your DeAndre Hopkins ranking is by far the biggest discrepancy of all the rookies thus far. You’ve got “Nuk” ranked as your #13 WR with his average ranking being #33. I’ll admit, I ranked him too conservatively this first go around post draft, but I don’t think I could move him past #25. He’s in a great situation and could possibly be Andre Johnson’s replacement in the near future. Convince me (and our readers) as to why he is a top 20 WR for dynasty leagues.
I currently have the Texans rookie wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins ranked as WR16, and I’m starting to think this might be too low. The Texans chose the former Clemson wide out in the first round and Houston has never been shy about giving playing time to their rookies, especially first round picks.
When it comes to rankings rookies amongst veterans, or determining their value, I often consider their place in a rookie draft. I consider Hopkins the top rookie and would choose him with the 1.01 rookie pick in an established league. Next, I consider players that I would trade in exchange for that top pick. This helps me to establish a ranking for both veterans and rookies. While it often results in me ranking rookies higher than many others, I feel comfortable with that. I would trade any of the players ranked below him for Hopkins, and maybe even a couple of the players ranked ahead of him.
Finally, let’s take a look at the opportunity Hopkins has in Houston. The Texans have been lacking a reliable WR2 for years, with Kevin Walter holding down a starting job the past few seasons. The Texans have relied on Andre Johnson and Owen Daniels as the main targets for quarterback Matt Schaub for years, but both are over 30 years old and the Houston brass understands they need to add some youth to the offense. The starting job opposite Johnson is wide open for the taking and Hopkins has already drawn praise from head coach Gary Kubiak, as well as Schaub.
To Eric Olinger: You are obsessed with Le’Veon Bell and keep trying to trade me for him. I feel like you’re about to overpay. He landed in a perfect situation with the Pittsburgh Steelers and needs to only beat out plodders Isaac Redman and Jonathan Dwyer for playing time. I get your love, but is he really a top 20 running back? You have him at #19, while your cohorts have him at #27 overall. ‘Splain yourself!
I’m high on Bell because he has a clear path to playing time. The Steelers drafted him to be their workhorse back, they’ve already publicly stated they feel he has three-down ability and can handle 20-25 touches a week. In fantasy football, you have to love opportunities like this. Bell needs to run with more authority for a guy his size. He tends to hesitate (a la Brandon Jacobs), but I think the Steelers can coach that out of him.
What do you think of these opinions? Comment below!
