30 Responses to “Price Check: Stephen Hill”

  1. Chris R. says:

    Great article, premise is basically the same in dynasty throughout. People draft guys as raw players with huge upside, but if they don’t produce in year 1 they sell them off for cheap pieces as throw in deals or lose interest completely. Guys like him may not even truly breakout until year 3, but I’ve recently learned to stop targeting these guys as rookies. They almost always come cheaper in the years to come then they do at draft time.

    There was a lot wrong in NY, and they were having to rely on Hill as the #1 target which was a recipe for failure anyway. He may not be a guy you’re going into the season relying on, but he’s a strong hold that you need to see 2-3 years before giving him away.

  2. Preston says:

    Chris agree in premise, but I would offer that Hill did way worse than most every rookie that is touted to have his kind of talent. Take away the 1st game, and the final 10 games of his season he posted 16 catches on 41 targets (39%), 163 yards, and 1 TD. Not saying he doesn’t have talent, but I think he is different from other even raw rookies in that his season was historically poor. Sanchez was bad, but that didn’t say stop Jeremy Kerley from having his best season ever, so I’m not sure Hill really has that excuse.

    I do, however, like your idea of passing on those guys in drafts and planning to go get them later. That does seem to be an intriguing idea that if done correctly could net you some nice value.

  3. Steve says:

    Another thing a lot of people forget is that the Jets – Sanchez, Hill and Co. were basically operating without an Offensive Coordinator…
    Tony Sparano according to many just didn’t have a system, didn’t have proper game plan, didn’t call plays properly and didn’t make adjustments… It’s not like we’re sitting here nitpicking Norv Turner as an OC – Sparano just doesn’t belong in the same sentence at all…

    As a jets fan ppl ask me about Hill and My answer this offseason has been “I need to hear what he did this Offseason” – recently we heard he Stayed at the Jets complex, Rehabbed, worked out and worked on the new offense – THAT is what you want to hear B/C if you hear anything less from a WR that needs so much work, he’s Dead to me… Hill is ALIVE… He’s saying the right things, has an OC and a B/U QB with potential as well…

    • SJ says:

      I mean, do we ever really know what players do in the offseason?

      Its really just based off of track record, and rookies or second year guys dont really have one. No one hears much from A.Rodgers, AP, R.Rice, etc about their work in the offseason but always about these fringe production players trying to create buzz.

      You can hear all the hype, articles about how a guy looks good in workouts, or has studied the playbook and met with teammates and coaches, and is in the best shape of his life, so on and so on, but we dont really know.

      All the coachspeack, hype and generous news reporting is meant to make stories but its not really great at determining what Player A can do that season.

      Just put faith in what you make of the player in the first place and use the hype to get a player youre more certain about later – or just take the plunge. I guess thats the whole fun factor in Fantasy anyway

  4. ChiefsHonk says:

    He has the specs of an athletic project but when I watch him play he doesn’t look that athletic honestly. He has chicken legs and his lower legs especially don’t look really strong or coordinated. They look rubbery and duck footed. I think his body moves faster than his brain. He would be best served on a team with 2 really good Wideouts and he was a #3 with no pressure and could have 3-4 designed plays for him every game.

    • thekidcreol says:

      you don’t have an almost 40 inch vertical with weak,” chicken legs” agree he needs to fill out more but given he is only 21 not sure why anyone would think that isn’t going to happen he can add 10 pounds of muscle easily on that frame(and some in legs) and not lose any speed…time will tell and we will learn alot shortly about all the offseason work.

  5. thekidcreol says:

    Good article, I took a lot of heat keeping Hill after cut down in my league but I believe in this kid. Number one he has a what seems to be a good head on his shoulders(he made a couple of punk statement early last year but that seems to have faded). 2) He is a hard worker…he knows he is raw he knows he needs to catch body away from his body…he worked on this the entire offseason at Jets complex catching hundreds of balls a day….this is very encouraging IMO and exactly what you want to see from him. 3) His skill set is freakish not sure I would compare to D Thomas as he is much more beefy but more like Randy Moss that size speed combo is rare

    my biggest concern is his health actually seems to get nicked up easliy which is concerning, would like to see him up at 220 but he has a chance to have a sick career IMO

    For this year I want to see him healthy for 16 games and a big move forward than breakout in year 3 is very real and probable he is totally a buy low at this point and should be targeted.

  6. CokeAndBacardi says:

    Good write up but Hill had 4 drops last year. I know drops are subjective but PFF is an unreliable source. Their definition seems to be “a pass that falls incomplete within 5 yards of the receiver”. They had Welker with 11 drops a year or two ago when I didn’t think he had any… Went back and reviewed the tape and saw blatant over throws and defended passes called drops.

    I bought Hill around the trade deadline and gave up Olsen.

  7. SJ says:

    Yeah, there’s always a few 2nd year receiver guys who’ve struggled and come at a discount the following year. This year is no different and guys like: Hill, Jeffery, Jenkins, Randle, Quick, Sanu, Toon, Graham, Broyles, Jones, Brazill, are all on the radar.

    They make decent targets, its just targeting the right ones, being patient enough (and getting them cheaply enough) to make it worth your while. Sometimes these players never pan out, so the risk/reward is always debatable.

    • Steve Wyremski says:

      The difference with Quick and Hill is that we knew both were going to take time to develop, but now they’re discounted because of a sub-par rookie year.

      Jenkins, Randle, Brazil, and Graham for example may be a bit more justified. The others for the most part seem to follow the injury discount mentality.

      • SJ says:

        Thats fair, but really I think all those WR’s could be discounted to some degree and longterm expectations could be up in the air for each of them.

        None of them are without blemishes and question marks, and to whatever degree were expected to produce more their rookie year.

        Jeffery and Hill had the leg-up because they were “starters” with certain playing time, but its debatable which will develop the best of any of them

      • SJ says:

        I guess the point of the article is not to lump in players we know are developmental, with the players who strait-out dont live up to expectations in year one.

        I just dont know if that makes sense, because is their learning curve more justified than the norm?

        Fair argument…

        • Steve Wyremski says:

          I think it is, yes. Similar to a player coming from a small school.

          I certainly agree with your view that 2nd year rookies who struggled are targets as well, I’d just prefer to bet on a developmental guy who had a much steeper leaning curve. A more justified year off, if you will.

          With Hill in particular, there is a bit more at play though with the rough injury and horrible situation in NY. I think he’s a special case this offseason.

  8. VoiceofUnreason says:

    Again, Hill is compared to Thomas. Thomas was hurt a lot of his first year and on the bench for a lot of the rest.

    Most guys struggle because they can’t get on the field. This guy just wasn’t very good. Name some guys who had lots of opportunity and put up 250 yards then went on to be good. That’s a realistic comparison.

    • Steve Wyremski says:

      I don’t see why 250 yards is a bright line. It has no relevance other than it was Hill’s number for 2012. Brandon Marshall had a very similar rookie season playing more games.

      If Hill were 100% healthy, the Jets weren’t a mess in ’12, and he had more than 50 college catches, I would agree with your Hill assessment given his opportunities. Unfortunately, those additional factors were in play.

      • VoiceofUnreason says:

        When you are given the chance to start from day 1 and can’t hit 300 yards, that’s bad. Marshall being active and watching the game from the bench is another pretty apples to oranges comparison.

        But for me, the other players all looked the part and showed something. I can understand someone liking Hill but I don’t see it so I’m not investing in him. I just don’t see any football skills.

        • stevewyremski says:

          Not sure I agree it’s apples to oranges as Hill’s snaps/games include multiple games (at least 2 and possibly 3) where he played with a noticeable limp. He shouldn’t have been on the field. He couldn’t push off at the line or plant on his routes and often just collapsed when trying run a route. However and for what reason I have no idea, he continued to be put out on the field.

          I don’t consider that a failure/lack of production. His knee and hamstring were visually a hindrance in those games and who knows how many others where it wasn’t as apparent.

          Will be interesting to see what happens in ’13 if he’s healthy for the full season. If he struggles when healthy, I’ll jump on board with you, but I’m not ready to do that after a mess of a rookie year.

      • Preston says:

        Seems like his 250 yards has more relevance than it just being his numbers for 2012. If he had gone for 100 catches and 1400 yards, would you have said that has no relevance in predicting that he might be good in the future? It should just be used as an indicator, and not a rigid outlook, but should be taken into account I think.

        I don’t think we should pigeon hole him into being a 250 yard type of WR, however, but I think it does have relevance when looking at his future.

        • stevewyremski says:

          I was more referring to the fact that he was setting a bright line at “name someone with 250 yards or less”. I don’t understand why that versus 350 is the bright line.

          Certainly his rookie season production is something to be considered and it is. He struggled and that’s acknowledged. However, as detailed in the article above, there were a number of factors (most notably his injuries, lack of route running experience in college, and Sanchez) that contributed to that. These, in aggregate, are exceptional circumstances that few rookie receivers suffer through in a rookie year.

          • Preston says:

            Ah, I see, good point, and I agree. It is true he acknowledged his struggles, so at least he recognizes a need to vastly improve. That’s a good sign. Like always, good stuff Steve, thanks for responding to comments.

  9. David says:

    I have both Jeffery and Hill. 18 rosters spots. Non-ppr with 3 WR starter requirement. I will have to drop one of them after the draft. Leaning towards dropping Hill but this article has given me pause. Your thoughts?

  10. S. Curtis says:

    I really enjoyed the article. I appreciate the argument made for Mr. Hill.
    Everyone that claims “they watched the tape” (not referring to this post) are leaving out some very important details regarding Mr. Hill’s 2012 season.

    This dude can block like you wouldn’t believe. I love watching him square up and explode into the OLB’s. He was beat by some veteran tricks, but who hasn’t when playing any sport? His blocking will earn him playing time – No question. He will get better (he’s already shown the ability to “LEARN” to block = teachable).

    Can he run a route precisely?… not so well. He tends to round his routes, or stutter step to a near stop. He doesn’t attack the football in the air like his size might suggest. His only comfort zone seamed to be the go route. Still, he didn’t track the football like most thought he would. I believe this craft can be taught.

    I want to like him, but he could just be another Jon Baldwin. He’s pry gonna get better, but never realize his true potential (WR1). With that said, I can’t trust any Jet as long as Rex Ryan is their coach. How in the hell could Rex call him mini-megatron or whatever nickname he gave him then? Add some more pressure on the 21 yr old. Instead of inspiring his youth, Rex demoralizes them. Even though his value will not be lower for the next couple years, I’ll pass!

  11. Geewhizkid says:

    Great article. Anyone in a dynasty league who valuates a WR based on their rookie season has fog on the brain. I am in a 14 team PPR, IDP that can start 2 QBs and 4 WRs with flex. In 2012 I got Blackmon at 1.06 and Hill at 1.14. Hill was the 6th WR off the board in the 1st round. After extensive evaluation, I had Hill rated as my #2 rookie WR on MY board. Jeffrey was # 5 on my board and went 1.15.

    After the draft chat revealed that Hill slipped because he was drafted by the Jets. Those in my league that draft for situation rather than talent (or perceived upside) are non-trophy holders. I was stoked to get him and was more than willing to wait 2, 3 or 4 years to prove my choice. Patience and trust in your draft picks are most often proven to be the best strategy rather than a knee-jerk reaction on a rookie year WR’s performance.

    It wasn’t that long ago when rookie WRs took 3 years to get on the field for 5 snaps a game.

    Some rookie WRs become evident busts early. I know. I took Devin Thomas and Mike Williams (the DET bust languishing on the roster bubble in Seattle) in 1st round in past drafts. But I stuck with my decision and let them ride pine for 3 years.

    Do I think Hill is going to nut kick me like they did. No. But he might. In the meantime, he stays on my roster. Tune in later.

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