Shane Vereen: The Underrated Patriot

As dynasty owners, we know the importance of looking for late season trends. Players who go on second half or playoff streaks can carry that production into the following season. These players are often undervalued (specifically by owners who only look at year-end totals) creating a value gap.

Dynasty owners have another bias that leads to value gaps – I like to call it “scorned owner bias.” If a player burns us in one season, we often downgrade that player quite a bit, sometimes even claiming that we’ll never draft them again. These players fall quite a bit in drafts, creating said value gap. This off-season, we’re seeing it happen with players like Hakeem Nicks, Darren McFadden, Ryan Mathews, and DeMarco Murray. It’s not just players who can burn us, however. Coaches can have the effect as well. Mike Shanahan is a prime example of this – he’s the large part of the reason why Alfred Morris, despite rushing for 1,600 yards as a rookie, isn’t getting as much love as he would playing for someone else. Bill Belichick, with his infamous committee approach, is another great example. However, if we vow off Patriots’ running backs, we’d be missing out on a great buy-low target – Shane Vereen.

Vereen was drafted by the Patriots in the second round of the 2011 NFL Draft. Stevan Ridley, his backfield mate, was drafted in the third round. After a rookie season in which neither was used much, BenJarvus Green-Ellis was let go by the Patriots. While Vereen battled injuries, Ridley took the starting role and ran with it, finishing as a high-end RB2. Vereen, finally healthy, did start to get more usage towards the end of the season, however. In his final three games (including the playoffs), Vereen received 19 carries for 95 yards (good for 5.0 yards per carry) as well as rushing for one touchdown. His rushing totals aren’t what make him intriguing, though – it’s his receiving ability. Over those last two games, Vereen had seven catches for 105 yards (15 yards per reception) and two additional touchdowns – this included a game against the Houston Texans where he had five catches for 83 yards and both of the aforementioned scores. Now entering his third season, Vereen has an opportunity to far outproduce his ADP.

Last season, the Patriots had 523 rushing attempts, second only to the Seattle Seahawks. Even if Ridley repeats his 290 carry season, there is plenty of space for Vereen to do well. This off-season, the Patriots also let Danny Woodhead go to the San Diego Chargers. As the third down/change-of-pace back, Woodhead finished as the RB24 – just barely a RB2 in 12 team leagues. He put up the following stats:

Rush Att.	Rush Yard	Rush TDs	Targets	Receptions	Rec Yards	Rec TDs
76	301	4	50	40	446	3

Just as the Patriots letting Green-Ellis go was a sign of belief in Ridley, I believe letting Woodhead go is a sign of faith in Vereen. As a more explosive back, those numbers represent close to Vereen’s floor.

Not only is there plenty of running back opportunity available, but the Patriots are also undergoing an offensive shift this off-season. Wes Welker, the slot machine, was let go to rival Peyton Manning and the Denver Broncos. Brandon Lloyd, the field stretcher, received the axe. Welker took 174 targets and 118 catches with him, while Lloyd took 130 targets and 74 catches with him. Combined, that is 192 catches and 304 targets gone from last year. To put those numbers in perspective, consider that the Seattle Seahawks attempted only 100 more passes on the entire season last year as a team.  Those numbers could go up even further, if/when Rob Gronkowski misses time while recovering from his multiple off-season surgeries.

The Patriots did sign Danny Amendola to replace Welker and they did draft a couple of wide receivers, including Aaron Dobson, but it is unreasonable to expect them to blend right in and build rapport with Brady, a quarterback who famously demands perfection. Bill Belichick has a history of adapting his offense to fit the weapons he has. He did it when Randy Moss came to town and he did it when Welker arrived as well. With an uninspiring wide receiver corps, Belichick might run the offense through the running backs even more. There are some other running backs on the roster, but they don’t pose much of a threat to Vereen. Brandon Bolden and LeGarrette Blount are big backs who are considered to be Ridley’s backups, not Vereen’s. Only one of them is likely to make the final 53. The Pats also signed Leon Washington, but it was for his returning abilities, not his rushing or receiving talent.

With all of that being said, a reasonable projection for Vereen could be around 600 yards rushing (135 carries at 4.5 yards per carry), 50 receptions, 600 receiving yards and six total touchdowns. In PPR, that would equate to 206 points – that total would have been good enough for him to be the RB17 last year, or a solid RB2. Now, let’s look at his average dynasty rankings. According to Ryan McDowell’s ADP, Vereen is being drafted as the RB35 (a low end RB3) and #100 overall. His consensus staff ranking is as the RB37. Vereen is a great bet to outproduce his ADP and rankings.

Let’s now look at the running backs being drafted around Vereen. The entire St. Louis backfield which includes Isaiah Pead, Daryl Richardson, and Zac Stacy, are all close to Vereen. One of those players might emerge, but I have no idea who and I don’t think they have the same upside as Vereen, either. Andre Brown could be a good goal line back, but he has often been injured and has the explosive David Wilson in front of him. Jonathan Franklin was highly thought of by the fantasy community pre-draft, but the NFL obviously didn’t agree, as he fell to the fourth round to the Green Bay Packers – two rounds after they selected Eddie Lacy. Jacquizz Rodgers has never really done anything to justify the fantasy hype he’s received – I think it’s the name. Out of all these backs drafted around the same area, I prefer Vereen by a healthy margin.

If I didn’t convince you Vereen is a borderline number two fantasy running back, I hope I least convinced you that he is underrated and a player who should be actively targeted. When talent meets opportunity, as it is going to this season with Shane Vereen, good things tend to happen.