Rolling Back the Prices

Doug Veatch Posted On June 2, 2013

marshawn_lynch

If you’re reading this article right now there’s probably a 99.9% chance you’ve been to Wal-Mart at some point in your life. Personally, I try to avoid the place like the plague because I can’t seem to go in there with my wife without dropping a Benjamin (at least). We walk through the store, aisle by aisle and the next thing I know, my entire shopping cart is full. Meanwhile, my wife is raving about how low the prices are and how great of a deal she thinks she’s getting on every item she thoughtlessly throws into our cart. The culprit you ask? Rolled back prices.

Let’s talk about these so called “rolled back prices.”

It’s actually a genius marketing strategy Wal-Mart has been using for years. In my eyes (as well as many others) what it does is use a slight drop in price (we’re talking literally pennies here) to give people that warm, fuzzy feeling they seek out when making a purchase.

Instead of slapping a price tag of an even $7 on an item, Wal-Mart will instead mark it down to something like $6.83 to make us consumers feel like we’re getting a deal. It’s funny how people (especially my wife) always round numbers down, convincing themselves they got a better deal than they actually did. In turn, that $6.83 gets dropped down to an even $6 in the minds of consumers.

This concept got me thinking (because of course everything in my life always comes back full circle to fantasy football in some way, shape or form) about how players who reach a certain age are no longer desirable to us dynasty owners. It’s all a numbers game. That’s why I think it’s important to sell a running back at age 27 instead of 28, or a wide receiver at 29 instead of 30. In my mind, it’s a strategy that’s exactly the same as $6.83 versus $7.00. It just looks more appealing to us as consumers and to your trade partners.

I dove in head first to our very own ADP and sure enough, I’ve identified three players that fit the “Wal-Mart mentality” perfectly. These players are still highly drafted, but should see a decrease in value in the next year or so based primarily on age, but also, a likely decrease in their role/production.

Matt Forte, RB CHI (27)

We all know Forte has never been a touchdown machine. As a matter of fact, he hasn’t broken double digit touchdowns (12) since his rookie season. Since that ultra productive season, Forte has been very inefficient as far a putting the ball in the end zone. He finished with totals of four, nine, four and six touchdowns over the last four seasons. To make matters worse, Michael Bush was brought in last year to assume the Mike Tolbert (vulture) role in Chicago.

Most of Forte’s value comes from the fact he has averaged 53.4 receptions per season since 2008. Again, if you look back over his last four seasons, that number is steadily declining as well with reception totals of 57, 51, 52 and 44. The addition of Martellus Bennett could eat into Forte’s targets, Brandon Marshall is already a target monster and Alshon Jeffrey should also see an increase in targets in 2013 as long as he can stay healthy. To me, this looks like the beginning of the end for Forte.

Based on the our latest update to the overall ADP for startup drafts, Forte is currently coming off the board at #22 overall, which signifies he’s still being valued as a low end RB1. Once he turns 28 in December, I think his ADP this time next year will be somewhere around the early to mid 40’s, which is a significant drop in value. I also think dynasty owners will be a lot more hesitant to seek out Forte’s services on the open trade market, so if you own him, I believe now is the time to sell him whether you’re competitive or in the process of rebuilding. He should still fetch a handsome price from running back needy teams.

Bottom line – if someone is still willing to pay low end RB1 prices for Forte, why would you wait until his value is that of a low end RB2 or high end RB3? This time next year, Forte will be closer to 29 than 28.

Marshawn Lynch, RB SEA (27)

According to our startup ADP, Lynch is currently coming off the board at #13 overall. I honestly cannot remember a time when his value has been higher. In my opinion, this is a classic example of dynasty owners reaching for the last of the tier two running backs available. A 27 year old running back coming off the board before players like Aaron Rodgers, Demaryius Thomas and Jimmy Graham is absolutely mind blowing to me.

I understand the whole “win now mentality,” but it’s a dangerous game to play, especially when there are players available in this range who not only command a king’s ransom on the open trade market, but can also anchor your team for the better part of a decade. A two year window versus a seven year window is nothing to take lightly.

If I owned Lynch in any of my leagues right now, I’d be freaking out a little bit. Not only could he be facing a suspension this year, but Seattle drafted Christine Michael in the second round who I feel is far and away the most talented running back in this draft class. When a team doesn’t have a first round pick, already has a Pro Bowl caliber running back and still has no hesitation about taking who they felt was the best player on their board (regardless of team need), that’s a red flag in my mind. There’s no talking me out of it. Even if you toss age out the window, a suspension will likely cause his value to plummet, without the possibility of recovery.

If you wait to trade Lynch and he does get hit with a suspension, your window of opportunity is officially closed. Time is definitely of the essence.

Brandon Marshall, WR CHI (29)

I promise I’m not trying to pick on “Da Bears,” even though some of you out there may already know I’m a die hard Lions fan (don’t ask me why). They just so happen to roster two players who make a lot of sense to trade before they hit that age barrier I described earlier.

Nobody (and I mean nobody) is impervious to losing value due to age and Marshall is no exception to the rule. He is currently coming off the board at #17 overall and at 29 years old, is also the oldest player other than Rodgers who even cracks the top 17. Do I think Marshall is going to slow down significantly any time soon? No. However, like I mentioned earlier with Forte, they are trying to surround Jay Cutler with as many solid pieces as possible. I don’t think it’s out of the realm of possibility to see a 10-20% decrease in Marshall’s targets simply because of the addition of Bennett. Let’s not forget Kellen Davis had 37 receptions combined in 2011-12. Bennett figures to get a much bigger piece of the pie.

While I think Marshall is one of the most talented wide receivers in the game, he’s being drafted ahead of much younger players like Percy Harvin, Randall Cobb and Graham. Personally, I could never envision myself selecting Marshall over a player like Cobb who is only 22 years old and plays in one of the most prolific passing offenses in the NFL. It almost seems like it’s defeating the purpose. Being a Cobb owner, I’d want more in return than Marshall to pry him from my hands. On the same note, ADP suggests that you should be able to trade Marshall for Cobb and then some. If that’s the case, what are you waiting for? He’s not getting any younger.

Conclusion

Playing dynasty football is all about resetting the clock on your competing window however you can. Trading players like these three before it’s too late can be the difference between going into a rebuilding mode and staying competitive. If past predicts the future, look no further into the history books than Shaun Alexander. At age 27, he had one of the best seasons in NFL history. At age 28, he was barely startable. At age 29, he wasn’t even rosterable – that’s how fast the NFL moves, and it moves on with or without you.

Using a strategy similar to Wal-Mart’s “rolling back the prices” can keep your team competitive for years. It’s up to you to identify what players fit the mold, negotiate aggressively and trade for the next wave of superstars to keep building your dynasty.

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