Unjustly Underrated: Fred Davis

A year ago, many viewed Fred Davis as a top eight dynasty eight tight end – some even slotted him in their top five. After all, he was coming off a 2011 breakout season where he posted a little short of 800 yards receiving in 12 games. He missed the final four games due to a substance abuse suspension, but that pace over the first 12 games ranked him as the sixth best tight in on a points per game basis.

A year later, after tearing his Achilles and what many view to be having bad chemistry with Robert Griffin III, Davis appears useless to many right now. Over the past few weeks I’ve seen Davis be dropped in the mid-third round of a rookie draft in favor of Ryan Swope, then passed over until the late fourth round, ranked by many in the early to mid-twenties, and others who are freaked out due to the presence of Redskins’ rookie Jordan Reed. In fact, his current ADP is TE25 or the equivalent of a pick in round #14 in a start-up.

Historically, players coming off injuries are a bargain due to recency bias and that’s exactly what Davis is. He’s a bargain, but not only because of the 2012 injury, but because of the misconception that RG3 and Davis struggled to connect in 2012.

There are a few reasons behind the drop:

Achilles Injury Concerns

Owners are always concerned with Achilles injuries suggesting a player may never gain his explosiveness back. That’s a valid concern, but other players have returned from this injury and performed well in the past (i.e., Demaryius Thomas, Leon Hall). That’s not to say others haven’t suffered the injury and struggled subsequently, because that happened as well (i.e., Mikel Leshoure). Prior to 2010 and 2011, it wasn’t likely an NFL player would successfully return from an Achilles tear, but given continued advances in medicine and the ability to “heal” major athletic injuries, a return from an Achilles tear is becoming more likely as exhibited by Demaryius Thomas. Ultimately, the injury is a concern for Davis, but recent reports suggest that Davis is ahead of schedule and already catching passes and running routes. He believes he’s currently 90% and will be 100% by June mini-camps.

The obvious question is whether a discount to TE20 or so is too steep. It’s a worthy question, but given his current value and ADP it may be not carry significant weight. My view is it is too steep given he’s currently practicing, but regardless of the view, let’s table this until later. It may not be terribly relevant given his ADP.

Chemistry with RG3

In the first couple of weeks in 2012, there’s no doubt RG3 and Davis struggled to get on the same page. Davis averaged two receptions for 26 yards in weeks one and two. However, many bleed that performance into the rest of the year frequently suggesting they struggled in all of Davis’ games. That is simply not true. Here is how Davis’ seven games breakdown in 2012:

Week	Targets	Rec	Catch %	Yards	Yds / Rec	TD
1	4	2	50	38	19	0
2	5	2	40	14	7	0
3	7	7	100	90	12.9	0
4	4	4	100	70	17.5	0
5	7	5	71	54	10.8	0
6	4	3	75	46	15.3	0
7	1	1	100	13	13	0
Total	32	24	75.0%	325	13.5	0

As you can see in the bolded area, from weeks three to seven, Davis averaged five catches for 65 yards – that’s production you want from your tight end. To put that into context, here is what the average weekly performance was for the top ten fantasy tight ends in both total points and points per game in 2012:

Player	Average Catches	Average Yards
Rob Gronkowksi	6	79
Jason Witten	7	65
Jimmy Graham	5	61
Aaron Hernandez	6	60
Tony Gonzalez	6	58
Greg Olsen	4	53
Heath Miller	4	51
Brandon Myers	5	50
Owen Daniels	4	48
Jermaine Gresham	4	46
Dennis Pitta	4	42

Based on catches and yardage alone, Davis’ performance after he and RGIII clicked is on par with the top five to six tight ends. Those claiming that RG3 and Davis have chemistry issues appear to be mistaken. The opposite is actually true. They exhibited stellar chemistry after early struggles.

Jordan Reed Impact

Others down on Davis are Jordan Reed proponents. They believe the Redskins’ selection of Reed in the third round of the 2013 draft is a sign they’re moving on from Davis and Reed will receive the majority of snaps.

Given the struggles most rookie tight ends experience as part of the NFL transition and the fact that Davis is on a one-year contract, it appears that Reed is more of a long-term option for the Redskins as opposed to a 2012 fixture. In fact, we’ll have much more on Reed in the coming weeks.

However, if you’re not on board with that and believe Reed will experience a seamless transition, given the fact that Reed has the versatility to line up split out wide, in-line, or as an H-back, as well as the fact that Washington lacks pass-catching threats beyond Pierre Garcon, it’s realistic to speculate that both Davis and Reed will be on the field at the same time much like Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez.

The bottom line is Reed’s presence in 2013 shouldn’t impact Davis’ dynasty value. The most probable scenarios would find Davis as the majority snap leader or be a co-existent relationship with shared snaps.

Don’t Forget 2011

We can’t forget Davis’s 2011 breakout season, but it appears many have. Before Davis was suspended for the final four games of the season, he was on pace for roughly 80 receptions and over 1,000 yards – that’s an elite season that few tight ends ever accomplish. The one thing noticeably lacking in 2011 was touchdown production. However, the fantasy weeks he posted in 2011 with the lack of touchdowns further highlights Davis’ long-term upside.

2013 Projection

Given the fact Davis is practicing, running routes and is on target for camp, it appears he will be 100% for the start of 2013. As 2012 is Davis’ only experience playing with RG3, it’s the best proxy for 2013.

Based on that, here are some 2013 projection guidelines:

Scenario	G	Targets	Rec	Catch %	Yards	Yds/Rec	TD
Weeks 3-6	4	22	19	86.4%	260	13.7	0
Extrapolated	16	88	76	86.4%	1,040	13.7	0
Realistic	16	88	62	70.5%	848	13.7	4

The “Realistic” projection appears to be the most reasonable for 2013 since it’s a mixture of several reasonable/conservative assumptions such as:

• Davis/RG3 exhibited chemistry from weeks three through six and, therefore, it’s the base for the above
• The 86% catch percentage from 2012 appears too high. The 2011 catch percentage is used as a proxy.
• Four touchdowns are his 2011 extrapolated for a full season. Comparatively to other starting tight ends, this appears conservative.
• The 88 targets appear conservative as most top tight ends have at least 100 in a full season.

While I view these projections as a potential floor for 2013 given what Davis did in 2011, these numbers would put Davis as TE12 given 2012 point per game production. Additionally, a drop from 2011 production seems to make sense given a potential discount due to the Achilles injury.

Summary

Davis is one of the best buys currently out there. He’s young (27), put together a top season already, and costs a fraction of his potential. An ADP of round #14 is absurd for a tight end with Davis’ skill set and potential. Even if the Achilles injury is concerning, he’s worth a shot at a significantly discounted price. He’s on par with many unproven players who will fizzle in a year or so or who may never see the field.

There’s no downside to acquiring or drafting Davis at his current price. Given the historical production and indications, there’s a very good chance that he’s a top 10-15 tight end prospectively.

Follow Steve on Twitter @SteveWyremski