Dynasty Stock Market: Second Tier Quarterbacks

Ryan McDowell Posted On May 30, 2013

At DLF, we now have five solid months of ADP data to mine through. Each time I dig into the numbers, I learn something else about player value and how to take advantage of that information as I try to build championship dynasty teams.

From January through May, one thing that has been consistent is the top tier of quarterbacks. From month-to-month, there have been few changes. The Packers Aaron Rodgers has been the top quarterback each month. Though there has been some movement, the next nine signal callers come off the board anywhere from round two through round six, on a pretty consistent basis. These nine quarterbacks being drafted as the QB1 for their team includes Drew Brees, Cam Newton, Andrew Luck, Colin Kaepernick, Tom Brady, Robert Griffin III, Russell Wilson, Matt Ryan and Matthew Stafford. These players, along with Rodgers, form a solid group of starting quarterbacks in dynasty leagues. Since they are considered studs to most dynasty football players, much has been said and written about these great quarterbacks, but today I want to look at the next tier of passers.

While every dynasty owner wants a top quarterback on their team, the second tier players are important for two huge reasons. First, with only ten “elite” players in the top tier, some teams will be left without a starter in 12, 14, or 16 team leagues. These owners will need to quickly assess the second tier of quarterbacks in order to identify a short-term and long-term starter for their team. Secondly, for the owners who are able to nab one of those top ten quarterbacks, it is imperative to add the proper fit as a backup.

Let’s begin by addressing those owners who missed out on one of the top ten quarterbacks. This may have been their plan going in or they may have been caught on the wrong end of a massive quarterback run in the first few rounds. Regardless, these owners must have a plan for the quarterback position. The appeal of most of the players among the top ten is that they are expected to be long-term NFL and fantasy starters at an elite level. When building my team, if I can’t have that, I will look for the next best thing- a short-term elite starter. If you miss out on those ten quarterbacks, the following players are some you should be targeting.

Peyton Manning, QB DEN

This is an easy call. Broncos quarterback Peyton Manning has never finished outside of the top ten fantasy quarterbacks in a single season. The only reason he is not among that top tier (according to our ADP data) is the neck injury that cost him the 2011 season. Although he returned and posted a top five fantasy season, some owners are still concerned enough that they do not feel comfortable drafting him to be their starter. At age 37, he is clearly not a long term option, but he is less than 18 months older than the Patriots Tom Brady, who is firmly inside the elite tier. With arguably the best trio of wide receivers in the league in Demaryius Thomas, Wes Welker and Eric Decker, Manning is a safe bet to continue to perform as a QB1.

Tony Romo, QB DAL

Cowboys quarterback Tony Romo is one of the most scrutinized and criticized players in the game. Maybe it is because of his publicized off the field personal life. Maybe it is because he plays for “America’s Team” where Super Bowl titles are expected each year. And of course, we know part of the negative talk is brought on by Romo himself and his lack of success in the playoffs. Whatever the reason, it matters not. It is one of the things that makes Romo a great value in dynasty leagues. He is currently being drafted as the twelfth quarterback in startup dynasty drafts, though Romo has actually outperformed that draft position nearly every season of his career. In 2006, he didn’t take over as the team’s starter until week seven, yet still finished as QB18. In five of the past six seasons since, he has finished as QB9 or better, with only his injury plagued 2010 season where he failed to do so. The Dallas offense has been consistent the past few seasons and this year should be no different. With Miles Austin, Dez Bryant, Jason Witten and DeMarco Murray as Romo’s top offensive weapons, there’s no reason to expect a let down in “Big D.”

Eli Manning, QB NYG

Peyton’s younger brother, Giants quarterback Eli Manning, has not had quite the same fantasy success as some of the players mentioned so far, but he could still be a solid fantasy starter if you miss on the above players. One thing Manning has going for him (much like his brother for most of his career) is the fact he has never missed a game. Manning didn’t take over as Giants starter until the midway point of his rookie year, but since then, he’s played in all sixteen games in each season since 2005. In most of those seasons, he has finished as a low end QB1 or high end QB2, culminating in 2012 with his lowest fantasy finish of his career, outside of his rookie year. Some of that can be attributed though to the injuries that some of his key offensive teammates dealt with. While a top ten finish might be surprising, Manning could be a reliable starter to hold a dynasty team over for a season or two.

Michael Vick, QB PHI

Michael Vick of the Philadelphia Eagles is currently being drafted as the QB20 in dynasty startup leagues. For owners who choose to focus on building depth at other positions, snagging Vick in the thirteenth round could pay off in a big way. This is the ultimate boom or bust and is almost certainly a short-term play, but few other quarterbacks drafted this late offer top five, or even top twelve fantasy upside. When drafting Vick to be your starter, your backup quarterback immediately becomes a priority. In his ten-year career, only once has Vick played in all sixteen games. Since arriving in Philadelphia, he has missed seventeen games in a four-year span. The good news is that when he’s on the field, he produces. In 2010 and 2011, he finished as QB4 and QB11, respectively, even with a handful of missed games. With new head coach Chip Kelly in town, it is hard to imagine what the Eagles offense will look like, but it is clear from his college coaching career that Kelly knows how to get the most out of his explosive athletes. This late in the draft and lacking a quarterback, Vick is worth the risk.

In the next Dynasty Stock Market, I’ll focus on the second reason to pay close attention to the second tier of quarterbacks and finding the ideal backup to pair with your starter.

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Ryan McDowell

Contributor at Dynasty League Football

In addition to his senior leadership role here at DLF, Ryan is also a husband, father of three and PE teacher. Ryan is the commissioner of multiple dynasty leagues, most notably the Kitchen Sink Dynasty Leagues. Here at DLF, Ryan’s focus is on identifying, monitoring and analyzing player value.