Recent Rookie IDP Draft Position Trends
If you are like most of us at DLF, you are finding yourself in the middle of a few rookie drafts and dynasty start-ups. Although every draft is different, this should provide a bit of insight into the drafting habits of knowledgeable owners. This article takes a small sample size of some of the most competitive full IDP leagues and their rookie draft tendencies for three key positions: linebacker, defensive end, and safety.
Linebackers
Arthur Brown of the Ravens is the most NFL ready linebacker in his class and he gets the opportunity to step into a legend’s shoes. This linebacker is far and away the top linebacker/IDP off the board. If you want him, owners will need to draft him in the first round or early second. Brown has the skill set to become a solid LB2 for your dynasty team this year and may grown into a LB1.
Alec Ogletree of the Rams appears to be the second choice in tackle heavy scoring. This could be a mistake if he remains as projected on the strong-side of the formation. He might leave the field on third downs which would limit his value, but he could switch places with Jo-Lonn Dunbar to become the weak side backer. I believe that will eventually happen. There are plenty of tackle opportunities for the Rams, so take advantage. Olgetree is coming off the board in the middle of the second round to early third.
Jon Bostic of the Bears could be replacing the legendary Brian Urlacher on the inside. He is athletic enough to take on the challenge, but he might have to wait as Chicago brought in former Bronco DJ Williams for the same spot. I like Bostic’s chances as the season progresses, but he might not get enough playing time in the first half of the year. The linebacker is getting selected in the middle third to fourth round.
Kevin Minter of the Cardinals is an interesting choice as the fourth linebacker off the board. If all-pro Daryl Washington gets suspended for even more time, Minter might earn a starting spot for the entire season and beyond. The recent signing of Karlos Dansby may limit this rookie in the short-term, but Minter is a solid choice for the future, especially in the late third or early fourth round.
Manti Te’o of the Chargers is the most infamous linebacker of his class, but fell into a solid situation. He should be playing all three downs as he demonstrated some coverage skills last year.  I’m not sold Te’o will ever be a LB2 for your dynasty team, but he has enough football IQ and heart to be a solid LB3. Hopefully he will stay an inside backer as I don’t believe in his pass rushing skills. Te’o is the most fluctuating linebacker picked as he has gone anywhere from the early second to late fourth round.
Kiko Alonso of the Bills looked like he was drafted into a difficult situation, but it is better now after the trade of Kelvin Sheppard to the Colts. He is an athletic player who can fill both inside and outside linebacker positions. I like the fit for him in Buffalo with their attacking defensive line. Alonso is usually a fourth round selection.
Sio Moore of the Raiders looks like he is their strong side starting linebacker. He flows well to the ball and the Oakland defense is looking for a leader. Their only remaining linebacker starter from last year, Miles Burris, got bounced to a reserve role. Moore may never leave the field with an older playmaker like Kevin Burnett beside him. He is coming off the board around the same time Alonso in the fourth.
Defensive ends
Ezekiel Ansah of the Lions amazed his team’s coaching staff during the Senior Bowl Game by getting to the quarterback. The raw defensive end will get his chance on team that is not returning any of its starting defensive ends. One of the reasons fantasy owners select him before Dion Jordan is the Lions do not seem to have any thought to convert him to a linebacker role. Unless its sack-heavy scoring, Ansah is coming off the board in the third round.
Dion Jordan of the Dolphins will make a major impact in 2013 and beyond with offensive lines so concerned with Cameron Wake on the other side. Wake usually occupies two defenders by himself, so Jordan needs to help bail out the revamped Miami defense. Pressure equals turnovers and that is why the Dolphins brain trust moved up to the number three overall to draft him. He is usually being selected within two or three picks of Ansah.
Cornellius Carradine of the 49ers might not play right away. He is a gifted pass rusher who can anchor his spot on the line, but I’m not convinced he will stay at defensive end. He seems to be a good blend of fellow 49ers DE Justin Smith and LB Aldon Smith. As Carradine is a part of the next tier at defensive end, he is lasting to the bottom of the fourth round.
Safeties
Kenny Vaccaro of the Saints is typically the top safety coming off the board. He is a solid tackler, good in coverage and causes turnovers. The major issue with him is playing time for this year as Roman Harper is still there and is very effective around the line of scrimmage. The Saints may play a three safety formation at times to get their best defensive playmakers on the field at the same time. He is coming off the board in the third round.
Johnathan Cyprien of the Jaguars is a dominant small school player that goes into a system that emphasizes safety play. He is an impressive athlete that is a strong tackler and might be the best athlete on his side of the ball. Obviously his competition is now the best in the world, and I fully expect him to become a DB1. Cyprien is usually drafted right after Vaccaro in the third round.
Matt Elam of the Ravens does not have to replace the legendary Ed Reed, instead he gets to replace the hard-hitting Bernard Pollard. The safety is very instinctive, quite physical, and is a fantastic athlete. I love the way he seems to feel the ball arriving at the last possible second as he knocks it away. Elam usually ends the initial safety run by the end of the third or early fourth round.
If you are looking for something deeper, hit me up on twitter @AndrewMiley as I have recently finished three eight round rookie drafts with 32 teams. Good luck and happy drafting.
