The DLF Mailbag

Eric Hardter Posted On May 27, 2013

Welcome to the latest edition of the weekly mailbag.

Send me your questions using the DLF Mailbag Form and I’ll include the best in future articles. Remember the guidelines to have the best chance at seeing your question get posted:

1.) Dynasty questions only, no start/sit questions

2.) Help me help you by providing sufficient information about your league (e.g. line-up requirements/PPR or non-PPR/etc.), and include your first name and where you’re from.

3.) Your chance of getting your question answered is inversely proportional to the length of the question.

Let’s get to it!

1.) This is the second year of our dynasty league and I’m getting prepared for the rookie draft. I currently have both Arian Foster and Ben Tate on my roster at running back, and also have picks 1.04 and 1.06 in the draft. I would like to draft DeAndre Hopkins with my the fourth pick, but want your input as I already have the starting running back for the same Houston team. Would you make that pick? – Dan in MD

To me, this all comes down to one simple question – do you think DeAndre Hopkins will be the best player available when it’s your turn to pick? Judging by your email, I’m guessing you do, so at that point everything else becomes extraneous. Dynasty football is a lot like a stock market, meaning you want to buy low, sell high and own the most valuable assets you possibly can. This is likely the lowest you’ll ever be able to buy Hopkins, so if you feel he carries a value commensurate with your selection, he’s the obvious choice for you.

With that said, you’re clearly worried about owning (and potentially starting) more than one player on the same team. It’s true not every offense can support multiple fantasy-relevant players, but you can’t necessarily use past performances as a predictor for the future. In this case, the Texans drafted Hopkins with their first-round selection and also happen to have a glaring hole at the second receiver position opposite Andre Johnson. After getting bounced in the playoffs by the New England Patriots, they likely realized they needed to get more explosive and diverse on offense. It’s probable 2013 will bring a change, if only a subtle one, to Houston’s offense and Hopkins should be a direct beneficiary.

Yes, there’s always the fear that if Houston’s offense has a bad week, you’d be stuck behind the eight ball if both Foster and Hopkins perform in an underwhelming fashion. However, you have to remember dynasty football is based around a perennial strategy. Given that fact, a single game amounts to only one of an abundance of data points as the years go by.

Finally, speaking to this type of long-term viewpoint, if the NFL has taught us anything it’s that situations change. There are no guarantees Hopkins will still be a Texan at the conclusion of his rookie deal, much like there are no assurances Foster or Tate will be “the man” at running back as soon as next year. Regardless, Hopkins is only 20 years old and has a long career ahead of him. Trust the talent and don’t worry about the rest.

2.) I have Michael Crabtree in my ten-team PPR dynasty league and I’m a little worried that he might not be the same player after his Achilles’ tear. Should I try trading him to a team that doesn’t have hopes of winning this year, or should I ride out the storm and not undersell him? – John in IL

Continuing the stock market analogy from Dan’s question above, I think you answered this one yourself with the “undersell” comment. You should never sell low if you can avoid it. In this case, consider what you’d likely be giving away – according to the May ADP data, Crabtree was being drafted as the WR9, with an overall ADP of 26.5. At the conclusion of the 2012 regular season, plus the playoffs, he was beginning to form a solid rapport with quarterback Colin Kaepernick and look every bit the early first round pick he was drafted to be.

With that said, Crabtree now carries one very obvious red flag – the torn Achilles. Adding even more confusion to his current stock is the fact that it was a full tear, as opposed to a partial tear. If you recall, the Ravens’ Terrell Suggs was able to come back last season after partially tearing his Achilles’ during the summer, even though he wasn’t quite at 100%. Crabtree will unfortunately be hard pressed to return this season, despite the optimism coming from San Francisco.

Ultimately though, when it comes down to it Crabtree is still a 25-year old receiver who began to assert himself as a force down the stretch in 2012. No, there are no guarantees he’ll ever return to full strength, but 80-90% of his 2012 output should still equate to WR2-level production. Since you’re unlikely to even receive that type of value in return, it seems prudent to stand pat and ride out the storm.

3.) I really like he 2014 draft class, so I’ve been offering trades to collect as many first round picks as I can. In all, I’ve managed to get an additional four, plus my own. The aggregate of these trades is as follows:

Gave – Russell Wilson, Kyle Rudolph, Chris Ivory, Mike Goodson, 2013 pick 2.01 and three 2014 second round picks

Received – Jermichael Finley and the four 2014 first round picks

I know in a vacuum this was pretty aggressive and I may have undersold a little, but as a whole, I think the value will only increase. What are your thoughts on the deals and philosophy? – Rob in NJ

Rob included his roster in his email, and though I omitted it so as to keep the question to a reasonable length, suffice it to say it’s very strong. In fact, out of all the players he traded away, it’s likely none of them would have started for him in 2013 apart from as injury fill-ins and bye week replacements. As it stands, he has a true championship contender.

It’s because of his status as a league front-runner that, as a whole, I don’t really like the deals for you. I think the value roughly evens out for the aggregate of both sides, but now you’ve pushed back the ability to maximize your gains by a full year. Yes, the picks will continue to accrue value up until the 2014 NFL Draft, but unless you wind up trading them during the season, they’re not going to help you win right now.

We’ve all seen the seduction of youth (especially when it comes to rookies) loom large as a way to attempt to build an everlasting dynasty. However, the primary goal of any fantasy football league should always be to win the whole thing right now. Instead of aiming for the draft picks, I think it would’ve made sense to couple the players you traded with your 2014 second rounders (or with other members of your roster) to improve your starting lineup this year. No, you wouldn’t have all the picks in a draft class you love, but you’d potentially have another trophy for your mantle instead – that’s a good tradeoff in my book.

4.) Would you trade Trent Richardson and Emmanuel Sanders for Giovani Bernard and Victor Cruz? I need to upgrade my receivers. – Chris in LA

In order to best elucidate the overall value involved in this trade, let’s turn once again to the ADP Data. Trent Richardson is currently being selected with an ADP of 2.5, ranking him as the number one player overall. Emmanuel Sanders, a popular 2013 sleeper, is being chosen on average at pick 136.3, equating to an early twelfth round selection.

On the other side of the ledger sit Giovani Bernard and Victor Cruz, both of whom are viewed as top-tier prospects. Bernard has an ADP of 40.3 (early fourth round), while Cruz’ stands at 27.0 (early third round). In other words, these are a pair of players who are being counted upon to offer high-end starting caliber value.

Nonetheless, even given the additive values of Bernard and Cruz, they’re still not nearly equivalent to the value of the top dynasty player in Richardson. Giving up Sanders just adds the cherry on top to the sundae of ADP imbalance. You wouldn’t trade pick 1.01 (plus a pick in round 12) in a startup draft for picks in the third and fourth round, so why make this trade?

You mentioned about having a need at receiver, but you can’t let that force your hand. If you’re going to be giving up an “uber-prospect” like Richardson, you need to receive a comparable player in return. I’d target tier-one guys like Calvin Johnson, AJ Green or Julio Jones in one-for-one trades, and definitely not settle for any less than packages including tier-two players like Dez Bryant, Percy Harvin and Demaryius Thomas. Situation is important, but overall value should always come first.

Follow me on Twitter @EDH_27

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Eric Hardter

Contributor at Dynasty League Football

Eric is a Boston College chemistry grad school survivor with a minor in dynasty football. He prefers to utilize both statistics and sarcasm whenever possible, believes in process over results and thinks "Hot Takes" are the scourge of the fantasy landscape.