An Aging Wide Receiver Study

The question that plagues many dynasty owners frequently is when to deal an “aging” receiver and cash in on top value? Do you hold a receiver through his prime and let his value disintegrate? How do I know when the player has peaked?

My thoughts have always been that 30 is the peak value age. With that in mind, my typical ideal strategy is to deal wide receivers when they’re 28 or 29 and look for a younger receiver, plus some additional value. This way, you’re constantly reworking your team, you remain competitive and rarely have to completely overhaul your team. Yes, you miss out on some top seasons of these older receivers, but all you need to do is pick the right younger guys and you’ll have that same production.

Some of you may be asking yourself why waste the time.  Most people already think somewhere around 30 is a wide receiver’s death.  If I was so confident, why did I bother running the study? I wanted to prove it to myself and to anyone who is willing to listen. It’s always speculated, but very little support is provided.

The Study

The data used for the study spanned from the 2001 season through 2010 and the following variables were used:

• Age
• WR# selected in current year dynasty startup
• Prior year finish (WR#)

Originally, I used a fourth variable as well – overall average draft position. Because of the various scoring systems that are out there and the fact that the drafts used contained minor scoring differences that ended up with a lot of noise in the results. I fully credit Rob Pitzer with convincing me to strip that out.

For the subject players, I wanted to select elite receivers who produced at high levels consistently over the course of a number of seasons. That yielded the following:

Marvin Harrison
Randy Moss
Reggie Wayne
Jimmy Smith
Rod Smith
Hines Ward
Terrell Owens
Donald Driver
Isaac Bruce
Torry Holt
Chad Johnson (Ochocinco)
Derrick Mason
Steve Smith (CAR)
Andre Johnson
Larry Fitzgerald
Anquan Boldin

Results

Because I haven’t run a regression analysis since my freshman year in college, Rob pitched in and ran the statistical analysis and produced the results.  After running the numbers, they show the following based on age:

• Until age 29: Age has no impact on dynasty value for established receivers
• Age 30: Wide receivers drop roughly seven spots as a result of turning 30 years old
• Age 31: The extra year of age has only a small impact as compared to age 30
• Age 32 to 34: Wide receivers drop 4-to-5 spots each season, on average
• Age 35+: Wide receivers drop 10 spots each season, on average

One thing to keep in mind is this is clearly a small sample of players and drafts, so these are rough estimates.  However, given the fact that there are few receivers whose careers span the course of 10+ years and dynasty startup drafts are hard to come by, these results do confirm the majorities suspicion that value peaks at 29, and starts to fall at 30.

Analysis

It’s pretty simple.

Like many of us believe, age results in deterioration of a wide receiver’s dynasty value at the age of 30 and the age of 29 looks to be a receiver’s peak.  A drop from the fifth drafted wide receiver at the age of 29 to the 12th drafted wide receiver (just due to age and no drop off in production) is pretty substantial.

Based on this information, one strategy it suggests is to sell your top dynasty receiver at the age of 29 and then buy the receiver back a year or two later at a cheaper price.  Simply, top receivers from the age of 31 to 34 appear to be greatly undervalued given that they typically continue to perform at peak levels.  The suggestion, as a result, is to sell receivers at the age of 28/29 (unless you have a championship caliber team).