34 Responses to “Two Questions for Your Rookie Draft”

  1. Trey says:

    Excellent work as always, Tim. I have been going back and forth on who I like most between Gio and Ball and this definitely helps add some clarity.

    • Eric says:

      I have the 1.01 and 1.03 picks. The owner I acquired the 1.01 also has the 1.02 and he has openly said he likes Ball and hinted at Austin. I want Gio badly.

      Do I just take Gio at 1.01 and let him get Ball at 1.02 and pick Bell, Lacy, Hopkins at 1.03 or do I grab Ball and play the odds that he doesn’t take Gio at 1.02? I’m probably overthinking this a lot, but wanted to hear some feedback from other dynasty owners.

      • Eric says:

        following that post, my gut is thinking this scenario…

        1.01 Gio Bernard
        1.02 Montee Ball or Tavon Austin
        1.03a If he takes Austin, I’ll take Ball
        1.03b If he takes Ball, I’ll take DeAndre Hopkins

        thoughts?

        • Wesley Wood says:

          Way too early for Ball.

        • Cyrus says:

          I like your plan. If you believe in Bernard, take him and don’t worry about it.

          If I were in your shoes, I would gamble– I would take Ball and then hope he takes Austin.

          That said, I gambled in my league and “lost.” (I’m happy with losing in this case, though) I had the 1.04/1.05/1.06, and wanted to draft Bernard and BPA/BPA. The 1.01/1.07 owner offered me the 1.01/1.07 for the 1.04/1.06/2.05. I thought that was too much to give up, so I stood pat.

          He took Ball #1, so I tried to trade up to #2. Guy at #2 said no and took Bell, he was worried Bell wouldn’t last until #4. Guy at #3 said no and took Bernard. I ended up with Austin.

          I would love to have a RB, whether Bernard or Bell, but I really can’t complain. And in this draft, it is never too early for Ball or Bernard– Bell is the only one I think is being overdrafted.

  2. Cannon says:

    “The number one reason not to draft on team need is you will leave value on the board for your opponents. Don’t let them get that stud talent simply because you let him pass you by drafting on need.”

    THIS…I will never forget this! Thank you

  3. John Tillis II says:

    I’m in that predictament myself with the 1.02 pick this year (the 1.01 is committed to Lacy). I “need” Austin but I have Gio Bernard as my #1 player on the board. I’m taking Gio but I’m going to hate losing out on Austin.

    • Jason Moses says:

      Why do you have Gio as your number one player? I’m struggling seeing the love that the vast more majority have for him. He’s not overly fast and based on every highlight reel I’ve seen no one has ever touched him. I think it is as much to do with bad defense as it does with Gio’s skills. My belief is every year the FF community picks one of the RBs and labels them as the best player that year. I’ll take Austin & Patterson before I take any RB this year.

      • Eric says:

        Patterson is such a project…he’s too risky for me.

        I too love Gio, but I liked him before the draft. My opinion of Lacy is probably tainted by Ingram’s hype and subsequent failure.

        In terms of rookie WR I’d rank Hopkins, Austin, Hunter, Woods, Dobson before I considered Patterson.

        • Coach says:

          Wow i really disagree here. Patterson is going to be the best WR in this class when all the smoke clears.

        • Cyrus says:

          I think Patterson has a lot of risk, but he will end up being a lot better than the doubters believe.

          He is raw, but he has everything else going for him. He can develop.

          • TTT says:

            Even I’m not on the Patterson train, but I only have him behind Hopkins and Austin.

            Hopkins is absolutely polished and shredded LSU, one of the upper-echelon defenses.

            Austin is one of the most electric players I’ve ever seen.

            Patterson is too. There’s no denying his talent. I don’t think there’s any way someone can not have Patterson in their top 3.

      • Zach Bahner says:

        I didn’t love Bernard at first, either. Then I took a look at some cut ups. That really changed my opinion of him. After looking at the cut ups, I saw how much more of a complete back he is than what I first thought. He does everything as good, nearly as good or better than the other top tier backs in this draft.

        Some of the key points in my notes after watching him: deflects hits (should lengthen his career), catches the ball well, leads defenders into blockers, is patient behind blockers before exploding into open areas, cuts and accelerates quickly, has good upper body strength.

        None of those things screams top rookie pick until you actually see what he does over the coarse of a few games. I’d recommend checking him out. Highlight reels typically seem to make a player look amazing or terrible, it’s the full games that show more of what he truly can do.

        • Willy P says:

          Regarding Patterson, he will always be drafted before I would take him, because I don’t see how a guy is going to be an impact player any time soon when in 8 out of 12 games last year he caught 3 or fewer balls. He should have been dominant if indeed his talent IS dominant, but instead he disappeared at the college level, where he supposedly had a big talent advantage. He’ll have an uphill battle to put it all together: to use his talent better than he did in college, to refine his craft,and to adjust to ever-changing offensive playbooks and defensive schemes. Too many IFs for me.

  4. Brandon Standifer says:

    I’ll give my own head slapping example how I learned the hard way to do BPA:

    Needing a RB in the worst way and having a ton of WRs I selected Mike Tolbert thinking he could get some goalline carries (the league is non-ppr) away from Ryan Mathews and then watched the best available WR, Julio Jones go with the next pick. Still to this day makes me sick to think about. So I couldn’t agree with Tim more, ALWAYS go BPA.

  5. Matt Caldwell says:

    I can give you 2 examples of BPA in one draft. Last year I had 1.01/1.07 and 1.08. I watched in disbelief as Martin kept falling because 6 of 7 players ahead of me drafted for need and not BPA…at 1.01 I grabbed Trich. I was also able to grab Martin at 1.07! But then I broke my own rule and drafted Kendall Wright instead of Wilson who I had higher on my board, but I was so happy with the 2 RB’s that I already had I thought it was silly to draft another….but as soon as I did it I regretted it. The jury is still out on both but if I had Wilson right now I could probably trade him for a decent WR2 or more. People are really high on him.

    • Cyrus says:

      That is insane for your leaguemates, and if I were you, I would really regret not drafting Wilson too.

      Sometimes it feels “wrong” to overdraft a position, but if it is BPA, you do it. I took Austin/Hopkins/Patterson/Wheaton this year in one league. I’m going to need to make some trades, but I have a 2 year taxi so I have time.

  6. Von Romig says:

    And if Ingram and Thomas had exploded while Spiller and Green fell apart he’d be the one laughing about the trade… everything looks great in the rear view mirror and if you’re on the winning side.

    Unless the rankings are 100% accurate taking “best player available” is still guess work… and just as likely to be wrong.

    Dan Meylor (Drafting the Best Player Available) already used the 2007 draft class and Peterson as his example, and now you use 2011′s class with AJ Green. Well great for you both, but how about going a little deeper both of you and explain the rest of the draft class, and not just the top few spots. Or the years where the top ranked players did not pan out. Hmmmm….

    Because as I have always said, including with Mr. Meyor’s article, the “best player available” only works with the top guys at best. After that’s a total crapshoot. So you might as well fill a need and not just roll the dice on an unknown and not need him… and can’t trade him for a need.

    Take the best player on your board that fills your most pressing need.

    • SD Guys says:

      Thanks Von, I totally agree.

      I hate when the experts use hindsight for all their great moves. They hardly ever talk about the bust draft pick they made. Hell I can say why waste your high draft pick on WR, they take years to develop and you can always find plenty of good WR on most waiver wires.

      Last year I picked up three 190+ PPR WR off the waiver wire. Does this make me a great owner? nope just lucky. Just like we are all lucky when our first round picks pan out. more often then not they don’t.

      Just once I would like this site or any of the other FF sites to write an article after the NFL season and point out where they were wrong in there rookie talent predictions.

      • Tim Stafford says:

        I guess that wouldn’t make for a very interesting article, but I can tell you my worst two calls:

        Arrelious Benn – I felt he was a potential stud in the making. I traded up to take him and advised others to do so.

        Donald Brown – I thought he was a surefire winner. Great situation and solid college tape. Nope.

        • Cyrus says:

          Interesting. I never liked Benn and loved that others drafted him high. I took Mike Williams and counted on him developing nicely. I was happy his rookie year but he has let me down since.

          Donald Brown was another guy that I wanted to like but didn’t. My brother and I co-manage a team and he drafted Brown over my objections at 1.03. I wanted McCoy.

          Flip side is I have had horrible luck drafting BPA RB. When I end up with a premium pick, the guy fails me (Stewart at 1.03, Moreno at 1.01). When I end up with a #4-6 pick, the top tier ends just before I draft (Ryan Williams 1.04, Ben Tate 1.06).

          Aside from overdrafting RB’s, I really haven’t had many bad calls with rookies. WR especially are easy to scout, IMO.

          In July of their rookie year, I did trade Graham straight up for Bradford. Bradford went #10 so I thought it was crazy that he was offering him for Graham, who I took at 3.12. I wish I could have that back now.

  7. Eric Kassor says:

    Heh, thought I was the last guy thinking Bradshaw to the Steelers still makes sense.

  8. Craig Gerein says:

    I really need a RB3 on my dynasty roster. I traded for the 1.01 at a point in time when Lacy was everyone’s consensus 1.01. Based on league scoring I now have Tavon Austin number 1 on my board and Gio second. It’s so close I may side with Bernard, but with our return scoring structure Randall Cobb was the WR4 in 2012. Austin could be a WR1 at some point and might even be a WR2 as a rookie. It’s a tough decision.

  9. Ariakis says:

    Ok how about taking this a step further? Who is the next Spiller being moved as a throw-in with the potential to blow up? For now I’m banking on Franklin but perhaps the answer is in 2nd or 3rd year players?

    • Craig Gerein says:

      It’s probably Pead who I just traded.

    • Cyrus says:

      Vereen. I think he could explode in the passing game this year and be a solid RB2.

      What makes him a “Spiller” type talent is if Ridley gets hurt or if Vereen shows that he can run as well as Ridley. When Ridley is in the game, the Patriots typically play a certain way. When Vereen is in the game, the Patriots can do anything– he adds flexibility.

      I’ve been high on him since he was drafted, so I am bound to be wrong again. But I really think the Patriots offense will improve if they use Vereen as an every down RB, as defenses can’t adjust.

  10. Karl Safchick says:

    Great article Tim. Great points followed by great supporting arguments.

  11. Rob says:

    Sound advice. How about an article on the art of creating tiers? Also, have I missed it or has DLF not had a rookie “tier” cheat sheet?

  12. JBlake says:

    Great article. Good point about LBell’s value; after all the Coachspeak about him being a three-down back Godsend, I hadn’t thought about them possibly signing Bradshaw. But Bradshaw will certainly sign somewhere, sure to screw up a lot of dynasty team’s RB situations. I have Ivory on several teams, so please not the Jets…

  13. Ryan Hess says:

    I just posted something in the forum about this yesterday. my first pick in this years draft is at 2.03 so I was pretty much prepared to go on BPA. Excellent article.

  14. Chris Nelson says:

    Awesome article.

    I have 1.01, 1.02, 1.05

    Taking Austin & Bernard 1 & 2 as of now.(draft is not until July)

    I am not 100% sold on Gio @ #2, but the kid has a full compliment of skills that can make him effective for a whole 60 minutes in the future, not just a situational runner. He is not the fastest kid on the block but his patience and ability to pass catch should turn into some solid points IMO.

    BPA to me applies more to established players in the league, not rookies. At this point it seems to be one big opinion to each his own. Looking in hindsight is the only way to tell you if you are right or wrong. So draft with confidence now and hope for the best! That guy who you want to reach for could turn out to be a stud… but then again maybe not. HA

  15. Bob Ray says:

    You insinuate that Ball and Bell moved up a round because of situation. It seems to me they moved up because, in the eyes of at least some NFL GMs, they were better talents.

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