Three’s Company, Four’s a Crowd

Chad Scott

isaiah_pead2I have a problem – only it’s not so much a problem as it is a conundrum.  Thankfully, I’m not the only one who shares this specific type of syndrome.  The entire fantasy community (it seems) is puzzled and we want answers.

The hottest topic within the Twitterverse has been anything and everything about the St. Louis Rams.  It started back in March when there was talk of Steven Jackson leaving town.  Once he left, there was a free-for-all regarding the new lead back in the ‘Lou – Isaiah Pead or Daryl Richardson.  For what it’s worth, I drew a line in the sand regarding the two here back in February. Both Pead and Richardson owners waited with baited breath as the NFL Draft neared its end.  The Rams hadn’t selected a running back in their first four rounds.  Then, all hell broke loose (for me anyway).  The Rams traded up and selected Vanderbilt rookie (and Twitter favorite) Zac Stacy.  I won’t go on about what Stacy brings to the Rams’ backfield but I will encourage you to read Mark Rockwell’s Late Round Gem piece on him, instead.

And that’s just the running back situation.

The Rams also didn’t do us dynasty freaks any favors when they started drafting solid wide receivers.  It began when they traded up to take playmaker Tavon Austin.  The Austin selection didn’t muddy the waters, but when they took his West Virginia teammate Stedman Bailey in the late third, I could almost hear a collective gasp within the Twittersphere by Brian Quick and Chris Givens owners.

Instead of being reactive, I went all proactive on the Rams’ skilled position battles.  I reached out to Rotoworld.com’s Nick Mensio and asked him what I thought our DLF readers would like to know.  If you don’t know Nick, you should.  His free agency coverage was nothing short of exhausting for me to read on Twitter.  I don’t know how I did it.

I simply asked two of the more burning questions regarding the Rams, and these were his replies:

DLF: When the Rams were done after day two of the draft, Pead and DRich owners rejoiced.  Then, they went and grabbed one of my favorite
ookie RBs in Zac Stacy. Three’s company, so whose value do you think takes the biggest hit: Pead or DRich?

Nick: “I think undoubtedly Richardson’s value took a bigger hit than Pead’s with the addition of Stacy. If I were to guess on the depth chart at running back right now I’d go with the following:

1. Pead
2. Stacy
3. Richardson.

Richardson wore down big time at the end of last season, and his inability to run between the tackles is a little concerning (although the interior of the Rams line is nothing to write home about). I’m having trouble trying to compare this running back situation to one in years past. The best I could come up with was the 2010 Chiefs with Jamaal Charles (Pead) and Thomas Jones (Stacy), but probably not as high in the carry totals as Charles and Jones that year. I truly believe we’re going to see some sort of timeshare system with the three backs, but I’d expect Pead and Stacy to receive more work than Richardson. The Rams are going to be one of the most fun teams to watch in training camp to see how these battles at running back and receiver shake out.”

While looking at numbers and the man behind the mustache, Jeff Fisher, I came upon some interesting tidbits.

Fisher doesn’t draft running backs early very often, but when he does, he doesn’t miss on them.  Of the five running backs Fisher has drafted within the first three rounds of a draft, four went on to have 1,000+ yard seasons in their second year.  These are the players who qualify:

Player

Year Drafted

Round

Eddie George

1996

1

Chris Brown

2003

3

LenDale White

2006

2

Chris Henry

2007

2

Chris Johnson

2008

1

Isaiah Pead

2012

2

This is how these players did their rookie seasons:

Player

Carries

Yards

TD

Games Played

Eddie George

335

1368

8

16

Chris Brown

56

221

0

11

LenDale White

61

244

0

13

Chris Henry

31

119

2

7

Chris Johnson

251

1228

9

15

Isaiah Pead

10

54

0

15

Compared to their second seasons:

Player

Carries

Yards

TD

Games Played

Eddie George

357

1399

6

16

Chris Brown

220

1067

6

11

LenDale White

303

1110

7

16

Chris Henry

1

3

0

1

Chris Johnson

358

2006

14

16

Isaiah Pead

?

?

?

?

Thus far, the outlier is Chris Henry as the only running back to not rush for 1,000 yards under Fisher.  Also, you have to take into consideration Pead rushed the ball just ten times compared to Richardson’s 92.  I’ve taken Richardson out of this equation based only on his draft position.  It’s an experiment.

What does stand out to me isn’t so much the numbers, but where and when these players were taken.  It’s clear after the Eddie George era came to an end, Fisher went with a two-headed monster in the running game.  He drafted three running backs within the first two rounds in three consecutive years.

In 2008, Fisher utilized speedy rookie in Chris Johnson on the outside while hammering the middle with former USC great, LenDale White. In that season, both running backs rushed for over 1,000 yards and both were top 20 RBs in fantasy.  In non-PPR, Johnson ranked #11 and White #19.

I’m not saying Pead is Johnson and Stacy is White, but I kind of am. If anything was clear before the draft, it was the Rams needed a running back who could run inside, be a goal line threat and have above-average pass blocking skills.  Stacy fits that mold to a T. I’m also in the camp where I don’t believe Fisher will give up on his second round pick after one season.

Again, I asked Nick what he thought of my theory of Pead and Stacy being the 2013 versions (watered down) of Johnson and White in 2008.  His reply was simple:

“Nice, dude… I was actually looking at LenDale’s numbers from that year recently when doing some Shonn Greene news and I had that same thought that you had in regards to Stacy. I like that comparison a lot better than my previous one. My feelings have changed a little and I really think Pead is going to be given every opportunity to be the guy and Stacy is going to be his LenDale in short-yardage and goal line.”

This is just two guys making educated guesses based on what we’ve seen and what history has shown us.  We know nothing.  No one does when it comes to the Rams’ backfield.

For what it’s worth, I’ve been drafting both Pead and Stacy in as many startups as I can based on their ADPs.  I will also say Richardson has the highest of all three in MyFantasyLeague.com drafts, which could throw a real wrench into my evil plans if he should receive the starting nod.

Writer’s Note:  This will be the last article I write on Pead, Stacy and/or Richardson until we actually know something more than a (logical) guess, maybe.  I have become insufferable regarding Pead on Twitter and maybe in my own home, too.

On to question #2 for Mr. Mensio.

DLF: Tavon Austin was a perfect fit for both the Rams and his dynasty value.  Then, the Rams drafted Stedman Bailey as well.  Does this spell doom for Brian Quick or Chris Givens?

Nick: “I don’t think it spells doom for Quick or Givens, but the addition of Bailey isn’t a good thing for them from a fantasy standpoint. If anyone sees fewer snaps because of Bailey’s arrival, I think it will be Givens. But, I think what we’re going to see in St. Louis is some sort of rotation based on matchups, keeping guys fresh at all times. Sometimes we’ll see Tavon Austin line up in the backfield. Bailey can man the slot between Quick and Givens in those instances. Quick is your prototypical X receiver, while I can see Givens and Bailey rotating at Z, with Bailey also getting some looks in the slot. Schottenheimer is going to keep guys fresh. Givens was running a more diverse route tree as the season went on, so he very well could run away with the top outside wide receiver job if he hones his craft. I’d consider them all (Quick, Givens, Bailey) WR3/4s until we see what happens in camp and in the preseason. Go back to the 2010 Titans (Fisher’s last season in Tennessee) –  he had Kenny Britt, Nate Washington, Damian Williams, and Justin Gage at receiver. My early guesses, I’d say Quick turns out like Britt, Givens like Washington, and Bailey is Williams/Gage combo but a better talent.  In order of who I’d most want to own in fantasy/dynasty to least among the three, I’d go with Quick first, followed by Givens and Bailey.”

I think we can all agree Austin is the receiver to own and will be the first Rams’ receiver taken off the board in fantasy.  I’m still not completely convinced his body will hold up to the rigors of the NFL, but today’s rules will definitely give the diminutive speedster a puncher’s chance.  After that, I too think Quick is the guy to own as his physicality and raw athleticism draws me to him.  And if you missed it, I wrote why I think Quick will breakout in 2013 as well here.

The wild cards in this are Givens and Bailey for me.  Now that teams have seen Givens’ speed, they know how to game plan him (or at least have an idea).  Bailey is an intriguing prospect, but he’s not on my stash lists as of yet because he’s the second best rookie receiver on the team and has to fight for playing time with the second year fellas.

In the end, I’ve come to the conclusion the Rams will be a run first team until their young receivers learn the NFL game.  They have surrounded Sam Bradford with depth and talent given the latest rookie additions and free agent, Jared Cook, but it will take time for the youngsters to acclimate to the NFL game giving way to what I believe will be a strong rushing attack behind Pead and Stacy.   

The future’s bright in St. Louis and will be one of the most intriguing teams to watch as we near the regular season.  Until the picture is fully developed, go with your gut and no one else’s because after all, that’s what dynasty is all about.