The DLF Mailbag
Welcome to the latest edition of the weekly mailbag.
Send me your questions using the DLF Mailbag Form and I’ll include the best in future articles. Remember the guidelines to have the best chance at seeing your question get posted:
1.) Dynasty questions only, no start/sit questions
2.) Help me help you by providing sufficient information about your league (e.g. line-up requirements/PPR or non-PPR/etc.), and include your first name and where you’re from.
3.) Your chance of getting your question answered is inversely proportional to the length of the question.
Let’s get to it!
1.) In my 12-man, half-PPR keeper league, my final keeper comes down to one of Ryan Mathews, Hakeem Nicks, Ahmad Bradshaw, Danario Alexander, Torrey Smith, Knowshon Moreno or Antonio Brown. I have been thinking Mathews, as he still has a chance of being a three-down back, but he’s so fragile. Nicks burned me last year, so my trust is thin. I love Alexander, and Smith and Brown are looking like the go-to guys on their respective teams, but consistency worries me. Any thoughts? – The W in Canuckistan
Whenever I face a dilemma such as this, I always find it helpful to work backwards. In other words, instead of directly picking one of these seven players to keep, let’s start by whittling the list down a bit. Ahmad Bradshaw doesn’t currently have a team, so he’d be my first cut. Knowshon Moreno likely just lost his job to incoming rookie Montee Ball, and Danario Alexander has yet to put together more than a half-season’s worth of fantasy relevance – therefore, they’re the next to go. That leaves us with a much more manageable four-horse race.
Next, I want to more closely scrutinize Antonio Brown and Torrey Smith. Thus far in their brief careers, both have shown promise as complementary receivers, deferring to the respective veteran presences of Mike Wallace and Anquan Boldin. However, with Wallace’s departure to Miami and Boldin’s trade to San Francisco, both Brown and Smith will be tasked with taking over as “the guy” on offense. For two pass catchers who have yet to come anywhere near functioning as PPR WR1’s, that’s a lot to ask. With such a small number of keepers, I’d prefer players with longer resumes. Given that, I think it’s safe to scratch these two AFC North adversaries off the list, and what was once seven has now become two.
This brings us to the Chargers’ Ryan Mathews, who followed up a promising 2011 campaign with a mediocre, injury-marred 2012. The San Diego brass is saying all the right things about the 2010 first round pick, but this new regime has no ties to the former Fresno State Bulldog. In fact, aligning with the adage of “actions speak louder than words,” the ‘Bolts have signed fellow running backs Ronnie Brown and Danny Woodhead, and were reportedly attempting to coax Charger great LaDainian Tomlinson out of retirement. It’s beginning to seem like Mathews’ best-case scenario is that of a two-down back with goal-line potential, and that’s assuming he can stay healthy. I’d rather he be someone else’s headache.
That leaves Giants’ receiver Hakeem Nicks. While it’s true Nicks labored through a brutal 2012, his skillset has translated to fantasy box scores better than any of the other players you listed. His two-year run from 2010-2011 saw an average finish as the PPR WR10, in only his second and third years in the league. Yes, he comes with similar injury red flags as Mathews, but I have a lot more trust in Nicks’ talent, as well as the Giants offense as a whole. The masses agree, as according to the April ADP data, Nicks is being drafted 20 spots higher than any of your alternatives. Nicks may have burned you last year, but that’s not enough reason for letting him burn you again from a league-mates roster.
2.) Holding the 1.01 in this years rookie draft, I’m shocked that everyone is on board with Tavon Austin being a lock for number one with little or no debate. Austin weighs 174 pounds with a similar build to Dexter McCluster. What separates these two players? Both have speed and elusiveness. Taking the “Can he stay on the field being that small” argument off the table, can he find separation from NFL slot corners and big, fast linebackers? Am I overthinking this? I could potentially trade down to the #3 overall pick while picking up the #12 pick. – Doc in WI
The short answer is no, you’re not overthinking this. I share several of the same concerns with Tavon Austin, and have a tough time justifying a tiny (albeit electrifying) slot receiver as the number one rookie pick. However, I think the comparisons to Dexter McCluster are a bit disingenuous.
During his time at Ole Miss, McCluster was primarily utilized as a running back, with a carry to reception ratio of 2.3:1. It’s unsurprising his conversion to receiver hasn’t gone swimmingly. Conversely, Austin was a pass catcher first, and “Swiss army knife” second. He tallied over 100 receptions in both 2011 and 2012 and was only featured prominently as a runner during his Senior season (72 carries). Austin won’t have to worry about any kind of positional transition from college to the pros.
Austin is also superior physically. His time of 4.34 seconds in the 40-yard dash led all participants in the 2012 NFL Combine, and easily trumps McCluster’s time of 4.58 seconds. Austin’s 20-yard shuttle is slightly faster as well. McCluster is stronger and can jump higher, but he’s not nearly the speedy mismatch Austin is. Lastly, to your point of durability, Austin didn’t miss a game in his entire collegiate career.
With that said, defending Austin remains contrary to my personal viewpoint, to the extent that I don’t at all believe he warrants a slam-dunk pick at 1.01. Despite the off-season defections of Danny Amendola and Brandon Gibson, the Rams stable of receivers still boasts Chris Givens, Jared Cook, Brian Quick and fellow rookie Stedman Bailey. Considering the next WR1 quarterback Sam Bradford supports will be his first, the glut of pass catchers is very concerning. I’d have no reservations dropping down to 1.03 and selecting one of the Texans’ DeAndre Hopkins, the Bengals’ Giovani Bernard or the Broncos’ Montee Ball, thereby getting the extra pick in the process.
3.) I drafted Bryce Brown in the third round of last year’s rookie draft, and recently flipped him to the LeSean McCoy owner for Michael Floyd (who was drafted at 1.06 last year). In addition, our rules allow me to stash Floyd for one more year on my taxi squad, whereas Brown no longer meets those requirements. How did I make out? – Vince in MO
In terms of relative value, you made out quite well. Michael Floyd was the #13 pick in the 2012 NFL draft, and the second receiver selected behind Justin Blackmon. Though he had limited success as a rookie, the Cardinals boasted arguably the league’s worst quarterback play. In fact, the four Arizona signal callers who received snaps last year combined to complete only 55.4% of their passes for a paltry 3,383 yards, and a pathetic eleven touchdowns. Yes, you read that last statistic correctly. So even though Bryce Brown received the fantasy press clippings due to a late-season surge, it’s no surprise that, on average, Floyd is being selected a full round ahead of him in dynasty startups.
With that said, there is an aura about new Eagles’ coach Chip Kelly, particularly in regards to how he’ll use his ball carriers. Kelly as known to prefer a fast paced, run-heavy scheme in college, and has alluded to the potential of giving significant carries to multiple backs. However, there exists ample evidence that this will not come to fruition, and that Brown is being overhyped right now. It’s entirely possible his brief run of fantasy relevance last year could very well be the best games of his career. To me, being able to trade him for a receiver of Floyd’s pedigree and potential is an absolute coup.
4.) I have a decent receiving corps with Demaryius Thomas, Reggie Wayne, Eric Decker, Randall Cobb, Josh Gordon, Vincent Brown, Danario Alexander and Denarius Moore. I’m really shallow at running back with my best being Alfred Morris and BenJarvus Green-Ellis. What are your thoughts on who I should move and what you think I could get in return? – Justin in WA
The first five receivers you mention are legitimate fantasy starters, and even the last three of Brown, Alexander and Moore represent talented fliers. So given that, I’d say your assessment of having a “decent” receiving corps is either a gigantic understatement, or a humble display of modesty. Regardless, having this many fantasy-relevant receivers affords you multiple trade options.
The three I’d absolutely refuse to trade (unless an amazing offer came along) are Thomas, Cobb and Gordon. Both Thomas and Cobb are routinely being selected in the second round of startup drafts, and Gordon had an amazing rookie season considering he was only 21 years old, was over a year removed from competitive football and played for the fantasy black hole Cleveland Browns. These three should combine to be the cornerstone of receiving corps for years to come.
I also wouldn’t trade Brown, Alexander or Moore, but for entirely different reasons. Due to injury-related concerns, none of them will fetch trade value commensurate with their skill levels. Brown missed the entire 2012 season with a broken leg, but was looking to be the Chargers’ top pass catcher. Similarly, Alexander and Moore seem to be constantly nicked up, and might struggle to shed their injury-prone labels.
That leaves Reggie Wayne and Eric Decker. Wayne experienced a career renaissance in 2012 with quarterback Andrew Luck at the helm, but is still a 34-year old receiver with a diminishing shelf life. The longer you hold onto him, the more value he loses. If you trade him now, you should be able to receive one of the running backs near his ADP value, including Frank Gore, Vick Ballard and Shane Vereen.
The thought behind trading Decker now has more to do with his circumstance than his talent. The Broncos recently signed Wes Welker to a two-year, fully guaranteed deal, meaning Decker is likely to lose targets, and subsequently value. This time period is also likely to coincide with the twilight of quarterback Peyton Manning’s career, and Decker didn’t perform nearly as well with Tim Tebow under center. At his current ADP, Decker should fetch ball carriers such as Steven Jackson, Giovani Bernard and Jonathan Stewart. Worst-case scenario, you could package the two players together, or include draft picks to facilitate a trade, thereby improving your biggest position of weakness.
Follow me on Twitter @EDH_27
- Dynasty Fantasy Football Mailbag: Is Kendre Miller Valued Unfairly? - April 17, 2024
- Forgotten Dynasty Veterans: Bottom Tier - April 9, 2024
- Dynasty Fantasy Football Mailbag: How Much Should You Factor in Off-Field Issues? - April 9, 2024
