Post-Draft Rookie Mock: Round Three
Wow…
That is the only word that I can think of that is appropriate to put into print to describe the impact of the NFL Draft on this year’s fantasy drafts. You expect to see some changes and you expect there to be a few surprises, but this year exceeded everyone’s expectations by leaps and bounds when it comes to unexpected circumstances arising from draft weekend. As I was watching the draft, I think I could almost hear the collective gasps and screams of frustration as player after player fell into bad situations while players that many had lower on the fantasy pecking order went to the prime spots.
No one expected Eddie Lacy to be the fourth running back off the board. What made it even worse is that he went to a pass first team AND is being joined by fellow rookie Johnathan Franklin. Tavon Austin going to the Rams wasn’t a surprise, but him being joined by college teammate Stedman Bailey shakes things up a bit. EJ Manuel being the first quarterback off the board to the Bills (instead of Ryan Nassib) was yet another twist. Everyone was drooling over New England adding a wide receiver, but they didn’t want it to be Aaron Dobson and/or Josh Boyce.
I could go on and on for quite some time, but let’s get down to business. In order to give you a little peek into the minds of our DLF writers, we bring you yet another mock draft, this one started just as the NFL draft was finishing up on Saturday. Keep in mind that we assumed PPR rules for our draft. The person making the pick was asked to give some comments on why they made the pick and then I added a few of my own thoughts as well.
If you want to take a look at previous mock drafts that we have done to get a sense of the risers and fallers, here you go:
Pre-combine: Round 1 and Round 2
Post-combine: Round 1, Round 2 and Round 3
Pre-draft: Round 1, Round 2, and Round 3
3.01 – Da’Rick Rogers, WR BUF
(Pre-Combine 2.09, Post Combine 2.07, Pre-Draft 2.03)
Mark’s thoughts: I really wanted Stedman Bailey here with Aaron Dobson as my back up plan. Kudos to Chad for snagging Dobson just before me. Rogers is an early round talent with major character concerns. I’m hopefully he gets his head straightened out in time to compete for a starting role in a suddenly crowded wide receiving core in Buffalo.
My thoughts: Rogers is the ultimate gamble, but I think that is what the third round is all about! The fact he went undrafted in the NFL just makes the red flags that were already there significantly worse. Personally, I think if he can get his head on straight, this is a great spot for him. I think he is more talented than fellow rookie Robert Woods and actually could end up starting in place of Woods by the end of the season. Of course, Rogers could also pull a Titus Young and end up being out of football all together by the end of his second season.
3.02 – Quinton Patton, WR SF
(Pre-Combine 2.06, Post Combine 2.09, Pre-Draft 2.05)
Jeff H’s thoughts: Many are higher on Patton than I am, but the San Francisco offense is fluid, young and could provide a great starting opportunity for a receiver who steps up. When watching tape on Patton, it’s not hard to see the potential, but one must keep expectations in check as the bust factor for later selected receivers is extremely high, talented or not.
My thoughts: Regarded by many as a top ten receiver out of this class, his situation and fall in the draft will make people hesitate a bit before calling his name. Landing with the 49ers is actually a pretty nice spot. Outside of Michael Crabtree and Vernon Davis, I don’t see much competition he shouldn’t be able to overcome. If the offense as a whole continues to progress, he could make for a very nice WR3 in fantasy leagues, which is great value in the third round.
3.03 – Gavin Escobar, TE DAL
(Pre-Combine Undrafted, Post Combine Undrafted, Pre-Draft Undrafted)
My thoughts: Is it wrong of me to rip my own pick a little bit? In hindsight, this just wasn’t the right choice here. I like Escobar and I think that he has a chance to be the tight end of the future in Dallas, but I think this was a bit of a reach. He’s probably more of a late third or early fourth round pick in rookie drafts because he doesn’t offer much immediate value and there are better options, both at his position and elsewhere.
You might be wondering what I like about Escobar. Well, Escobar is a natural pass catcher in a nice 6’6”, 250 pound frame with good speed. He runs decent routes and uses his body very well when it comes to going after the ball when it is in the air. He is also a liability when it comes to blocking and struggles to break tackles in the open field. If he is going to be Jason Witten’s successor, he is going to need to improve those holes in his game.
3.04 – Matt Barkley, QB PHI
(Pre-Combine 2.04, Post Combine 3.11, Pre-Draft 3.05)
Jeff B’s thoughts: You obviously can’t make this pick with the expectation of getting any sort of production until the 2014 season at the earliest. The 2015 season might even be more realistic, but make no mistake about it, Barkley will be given the proverbial keys to Chip Kelly’s offense at some point in the future. If Kelly can hold out on that long enough for Barkley to be ready for the challenge, this pick will look like absolute genius. He’s a much better player than the current consensus about him might dictate, so I expect to be handsomely rewarded for my patience. Besides, if things don’t pan out for him then, well, it’s probably the same result as most other third round dynasty picks anyways.
My thoughts: This is a pick to make if you are in a league with deep rosters or multi-year taxi squad slots. Barkley isn’t going to be worth anything for a few seasons. If he does manage to get the reigns to Chip Kelly’s Eagles at some point, it will probably take him a year or two of running the system before he becomes productive. This is a very long range pick, but it could pay off if you have the time to wait for it.
3.05 – Marquise Goodwin, WR BUF
(Pre-Combine Undrafted, Post Combine Undrafted, Pre-Draft Undrafted)
Tim’s thoughts: Got sniped on Rogers and Patton a few picks earlier, settled for the thoroughbred. Goodwin is a track speedster. He just might be the fastest player in the NFL at this point. He probably busts, but if he has a few highlight reel plays maybe he can be flipped for a future pick. The third round is a crap shoot anyway, so why not take the best athlete?
My thoughts: With a suddenly crowded Buffalo Bills receiving corps, I’ll be a little surprised if Goodwin sees the field much. He is much more of an athlete than a football player. I think his role will be more on special teams as a gunner and possible returner than it will be playing as a receiver. Pure speed guys don’t have the best history when it comes to playing wideout.
3.06 – Joseph Randle, RB DAL
(Pre-Combine 2.03, Post Combine 3.06, Pre-Draft 3.03)
Ryan’s thoughts: As someone who almost also goes heavy on the wide receiver position during any draft, it was a challenge to spend all three of my picks on running backs, but I felt that Cowboys rookie Joseph Randle offered the most upside. With Felix Jones gone, Randle has a wide open path to the backup job behind injury prone starter DeMarco Murray. Much like Murray earned the starter’s job as an injury replacement for Jones, I could see Randle earning a couple of starts this season. If that happens, Randle is a player I would look to sell in dynasty leagues, as I’m not a believer in his long term outlook.
My thoughts: Leave it to the Cowboys to realize they have issues with their running back depth, then to go out and draft someone who is exactly the same type of player they have now. Randle is tall, very lean and lacks power. He has great hands for a running back, but he really isn’t much more than a watered down version of DeMarco Murray in my eyes. He isn’t the long term answer or maybe even long term backup at the position. Without an injury, he might get into the game in a third down role at best. Like Ryan, I feel that if he does something, he is someone to sell.
3.07 – Mike Gillislee, RB MIA
(Pre-Combine 2.11, Post Combine 3.07, Pre-Draft Undrafted)
Andy’s thoughts: This is more of an indictment of Lamar Miller than it is in my faith in the rookie. Gillislee has great hands and moves well in space. I doubt he will ever be a good inside runner for the Dolphins, but he has enough wiggle to be used like Reggie Bush in some special packages. Why not take a flier at this point?
My thoughts: I think this is one of the smarter picks of the third round. In my opinion, the Lamar Miller hype is a bit too overblown. As of yet, he hasn’t done much of anything. Should he stumble a bit, we all know Daniel Thomas isn’t the answer either and in steps Gillislee. He isn’t a special talent, but he does everything well. He could sap away a few snaps a game from Miller in a change of pace role and more than that in the case of an injury or Miller struggling.
3.08 – Andre Ellington, RB ARI
(Pre-Combine Undrafted, Post Combine 1.12, Pre-Draft 2.06)
Eric H’s thoughts: Ellington represents a perfect late round flier to me. The players in front of him on the depth chart come with no long term guarantees. Rashard Mendenhall is only signed to a one-year deal, Ryan Williams is an injury risk and Stepfan Taylor is a fellow rookie who lacks any special qualities as a ball carrier. As a player who averaged 5.5 yards per carry in four years of college, Ellington’s track record is worth taking a chance on.
My thoughts: I still think Mendenhall will be the Arizona running back for the next few years. However, I think Ellington has a better chance to make the roster as the third player on the depth chart than fellow rookie Stepfan Taylor. I even think Ellington has a chance to push for the backup spot due to the struggles Williams has had with injury. With that said, I still question how effective Ellington can be in the NFL and feel his upside is rather limited.
3.09 – Jordan Reed, TE WAS
(Pre-Combine Undrafted, Post Combine Undrafted, Pre-Draft 3.11)
Ghost’s thoughts: Reed is behind a player who is on a one year deal, coming off an injury and is an admitted weed smoker. It doesn’t take a huge stretch of the imagination to see Reed getting playing time sooner rather than later. Once he gets on the field, I think his talent will shine through.
My thoughts: Remember when I said I screwed up with my pick? Well, it should have been Reed if I wanted to take a tight end. Reed is talented and landed in the second best spot of any tight end in my opinion. I’ve never been high on Fred Davis. When you mix in the drug issues and the ACL injury, it doesn’t take too much imagination to see Reed as the starting tight end for the Redskins in the 2014 season. He is a very nice choice in the late third round if not before. The Ghost strikes again!
3.10 – Knile Davis, RB KC
(Pre-Combine Undrafted, Post Combine 1.11, Pre-Draft 2.10)
Ken M’s thoughts: He could be a successful change of pace, goal line back, stealing a few carries from Jamaal Charles. I doubt he’ll ever be a true starter, but he’s big and runs strong and is bound to get a few goal line carries.
My thoughts: In my mind, Davis is nothing more than a workout warrior. With that said, you might as well take a shot on him in the late third. If he can kick the injury bug and fix the fumbles, Andy Reid will get him on the field in some way. While I think the chances are pretty slim he does much, if he can turn into the backup for Charles, he will be worth something.
3.11 – Chris Harper, WR SEA
(Pre-Combine Undrafted, Post Combine Undrafted, Pre-Draft 3.12)
Eric O’s thoughts: I really like Chris Harper as a stash player in dynasty leagues. He will play behind Sidney Rice and probably end up replacing him as early as next year. If Rice doesn’t stay healthy, that will happen even sooner. With Russell Wilson, Percy Harvin and the dominant running game firing on all cylinders, an impact player like Harper is the perfect kind of flier.
My thoughts: I think by the start of next season, we should be seeing Harper lining up in at least three receiver sets if not two receiver sets. He has a skill set that compliments Wilson and Harvin very well and could provide a nice compliment in the receiving game. The fact the Seahawks are a run first team and that Harvin will dominate targets limits the upside a bit, but he’s a nice third round selection.
3.12 – Charles Johnson, WR GB
(Pre-Combine Undrafted, Post Combine Undrafted, Pre-Draft Undrafted)
Chad’s thoughts: I’ve had my eye on Johnson for a while, but never could pull the trigger on him in these rookie drafts. He’s landed in a great situation in Green Bay and should start contributing after a year of learning. Any owner who risks taking Johnson will need to be patient. He’s not going to leapfrog Randall Cobb, Jordy Nelson or James Jones this year, but I think he will surpass Jarrett Boykin by the end of the season. Johnson is still relatively unknown but he put up monster stats at his pro day since he wasn’t invited to the combine. I’m jumping on the bandwagon. Won’t you join me?
My thoughts: Johnson isn’t really on my radar, but you need to respect Ted Thompson’s drafting ability. Year in and year out he is one of the best at uncovering talent. Johnson is a small school prospect with nice size (6’2”, 215 pounds) and very nice measureables. He ran a sub-4.4 second 40 yard dash, a sub-seven second three cone drill, a 39.5” vertical and over 11’ broad jump. He does have some character issues as he was suspended from schools and attended three different colleges in as many years. If anyone can get him on the straight and narrow, the Green Bay Packers can. If he’s still on their roster when the season starts, he is someone to watch.
Here is a list of players that were in our pre-draft mock that fell out of the top three rounds:
Marquess Wilson, WR CHI (Pre-Draft 3.07)
Ryan Nassib, QB NYG (Pre-Draft 3.08)
Cierre Wood, RB HOU (Pre-Draft 3.09)
Kenjon Barner, RB CAR (Pre-Draft 3.10)
Our next rookie mock will be done towards the end of May once the dust has settled a bit from the NFL draft and some of the OTAs have taken place. Good luck to those of you with drafts before then!
- Final 2021 Pre-Draft Rookie Mock: Round Three - April 28, 2021
- Final 2021 Pre-Draft Rookie Mock: Round Two - April 26, 2021
- Final 2021 Pre-Draft Rookie Mock: Round One - April 25, 2021
