The DLF Mailbag

Eric Hardter Posted On May 6, 2013

Welcome to the latest edition of the weekly mailbag.

Send me your questions using the DLF Mailbag Form and I’ll include the best in future articles. Remember the guidelines to have the best chance at seeing your question get posted:

1.) Dynasty questions only, no start/sit questions

2.) Help me help you by providing sufficient information about your league (e.g. line-up requirements/PPR or non-PPR/etc.), and include your first name and where you’re from.

3.) Your chance of getting your question answered is inversely proportional to the length of the question.

Let’s get to it!

1.) I mailed in a couple weeks ago about trading Mike Wallace for Torrey Smith, Joique Bell and Mikel Leshoure, and wanted your thoughts on how the rest played out. I have Tom Brady and RGIII, so I traded Brady and next year’s third rounder for Reggie Bush and Russell Wilson. Thoughts? – Michael in GA

All in all, I like the deal quite a bit. Starting with Reggie Bush, I’ve previously mentioned that if he can stay healthy, he should be able to push for a career year due to a likely uptick in receptions. Though he received an average of 14.3 carries per game in Miami, he was woefully under-utilized in the passing game. Also, in the event he gets hurt, you already have the rest of the Detroit backfield at your disposal.

The second piece you’re receiving, Russell Wilson, is arguably even more valuable. In 2012, Wilson tied Peyton Manning’s rookie record of 26 passing touchdowns, while adding 489 rushing yards and four more scores. Amazingly, he was able to do this despite the Seahawks ranking dead last in the league with only 405 passing attempts (25 per game). Wilson really broke out during the Seahawks’ playoff run, averaging 286 passing yards and 64 rushing yards over two games, to go with four total touchdowns. With the addition of receiver Percy Harvin, Wilson is primed to explode in 2013.

With that said, even though he’ll turn 36 before the start of next season, Tom Brady is still one of the best signal callers in the game, be it in real life or fantasy. Though he only offers short-term value, you’ve lost peace of mind, as well as plug-and-play ability at the quarterback position. With no guarantees that RGIII will return to full health by the start of the season, there’s a chance your starting lineup will be temporarily compromised. However, the addition of Bush should help mitigate any loss of points at quarterback, and the total net dynasty value you’ve accumulated makes it worth it.

2.) I’m in a 10-man salary cap league that holds a rookie draft. If you were in a situation where you were deep at running back and had no immediate needs elsewhere, how high would you draft Marcus Lattimore knowing that he could ride your bench in 2013? – Rob in IL

In one of the more gruesome injuries you’ll ever see, former University of South Carolina running back Marcus Lattimore simultaneously tore his ACL, MCL and LCL, while also dislocating his kneecap. When added on top of a previous ACL tear in 2011, there are no guarantees he’ll ever return to his previously elite form. In fact, Gamecock trainers have privately wondered the very same, having told an anonymous scout “he’s not going to make it back ever” or “he’ll only get back to a certain level.”

By all reports, Lattimore is rehabbing hard and it’s tough to doubt a young man of his character and desire. By virtue of landing with San Francisco (a team stocked with ball carriers), he’ll be afforded a year off to help him heal and acclimate to the professional lifestyle. Given this best-case scenario, I wouldn’t hesitate to use a late first or early second round pick on the young running back.

However, coupling your lack of immediate needs with the possibility of Lattimore never returning anywhere near 100%, why use your early 2013 pick at all? You could trade back for a 2014 first round pick (and possibly more), in what is regarded as a better draft class. You’d also then have the ability to delay the increase in your rookie’s salary by a year, and not worry about Lattimore’s recovery. Even though your team doesn’t need anything in particular right now, Lattimore could very well bust, and you never want to waste a first round pick.

3.) In a 12-man PPR league, would you trade pick 1.02 for picks 1.08 and 2.08 given the rookie skill position players available this year? Does the ability to draft Chris Ivory and Ryan Williams change your mind? – Jon in FL

As I mentioned in last week’s Mailbag, several of the 2013 rookies have seen a decrease in value due to their landing spots in the NFL Draft. Given that this wasn’t perceived to be a very top-heavy class to begin with, it’s understandable you’re considering trading out of one of the top picks. Even with that, however, what you’d be receiving in return isn’t nearly enough.

The top two picks guarantee your ability to pick up either Tavon Austin or Giovani Bernard, both of whom possess skills perfectly suited for PPR scoring. Though you could still likely select a good option at 1.08, the consensus “top tier” of players ends a few picks before. Even with the presence of both Ivory and Williams (who are good players), I wouldn’t make the trade.

4.) I have the 11th pick in the first round of my rookie/free agent draft and Isaiah Pead is a free agent. Should I draft him over one of the rookie running backs or wide receivers who might be available at that pick? – Zach in Parts Unknown

Isaiah Pead has really run the fantasy gamut so far in his short career, hasn’t he? Selected in the second round of the 2012 NFL Draft, he was expected to serve as the Rams’ third-down back and direct backup to incumbent Steven Jackson. Unfortunately, his horrid preseason resulted in a demotion behind fellow rookie Daryl Richardson, and only 14 regular season touches.

Following Jackson’s departure this off-season, Pead was expected to challenge for the starting job, and his dynasty value seemed to be on the rise. Then, the Rams selected yet another running back, taking former Vanderbilt Commodore Zac Stacy in the fifth round only a week ago. Once again, Pead’s future has taken a turn towards uncertainty.

Having said that, other than the underwhelming 2012 play by Pead and Richardson, there’s no real reason to believe Stacy will be asked to shoulder the bulk of the load next year. Though he had a very good college career, Stacy lasted until pick #160 in the draft, and had twelve running backs selected before him. If he’s such a slam-dunk at the position, why did he fall? Why is he expected to walk into the starting role?

I think the reason is twofold.

First, no one wants to miss out on the next late-round wonder. We saw what 2012 sixth round pick Alfred Morris did last year, and our collective “recency bias” tells us it can and will happen again. Secondly, we see a team with a positional void, and assume it’s ripe for the taking. However, we neglect to remember that the solid majority of rookies don’t become the next Morris, Doug Martin or Trent Richardson.

With all that in mind, I like Pead’s chances in 2013. He now has a full year under his belt, and knows what he needs to do in order to improve. So while I wouldn’t take him over several 2013 rookies (Austin, Bernard, DeAndre Hopkins, Eddie Lacy, Cordarrelle Patterson, Justin Hunter and Keenan Allen), pick 1.11 seems like a rational landing spot for the St. Louis sophomore.

5.) I am one of the many long time frustrated Jonathan Stewart owners that have been waiting for what could “possibly” happen with the June 1st cuts approaching in four weeks. My question is what is fair value in trading away Stewart pre-June 1st and can you compare it to post-June 1st value if the Panthers actually do in fact cut DeAngelo Williams? – The Ewok Juggernaut from The Forest Moon of Endor

Looks like I need to get my gloves on and put up my guard, because it’s time to deal with perennial DLF punching bag Jonathan Stewart!

After a year to forget in 2012, many Stewart owners (myself included) are down on the underutilized Carolina Panther. We’ve prayed for a change in play calling and stuck pins in our DeAngelo Williams voodoo dolls, but to no avail. Now with the potential for Williams getting cut after June 1, we’ve gotten our hopes up, perhaps foolishly, yet again.

Right now, you likely wouldn’t be able to fetch more than a late first round draft pick (i.e. 1.08 and beyond, depending on league size), and that’s in a relatively weaker draft. More likely, you’d be forced to accept an early second rounder or future pick. Considering his upside, it just doesn’t seem worth it.

If Williams were to miraculously be released, it would signify a seismic change in Stewart’s value. Williams would take with him 37.4% of Carolina’s 462 carries in 2012, a number which led the team. Though quarterback Cam Newton will always be a strong bet to push for 100-plus carries himself, the other Carolina backs only accounted for 57 (12.3%) carries last year.

If Stewart stays healthy and assumes the bulk of Williams’ workload, he could very well push for 250 carries, in addition to the 2.6 catches per game he’s received with Newton at the helm. This would equate to 18.2 touches per game, and 96.3 total yards (based on Stewart’s career averages). With the additional work, it would also be reasonable to expect Stewart to improve upon his average of 0.44 touchdowns per game – this would put him in the range of a low-end RB1/high-end RB2, and see his value elevate quite a bit, likely to that of a high first round rookie pick – much more than you could get for him now. Given that potential windfall, and the fact that you’ve already waited this long, why not hold out just a little bit longer?

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Eric Hardter

Contributor at Dynasty League Football

Eric is a Boston College chemistry grad school survivor with a minor in dynasty football. He prefers to utilize both statistics and sarcasm whenever possible, believes in process over results and thinks "Hot Takes" are the scourge of the fantasy landscape.