Stranded on Revis Island

Eric Hardter

darrelle_revis2

We’ve seen our fair share of unique NFL player nicknames over the years.  For example, Calvin Johnson’s “Megatron” moniker is derived from a cartoon alien robot hell-bent on destroying humanity.  For a receiver who annihilates opposing defenses in a similar fashion, it’s a genuinely fantastic fit.  Doug Martin’s “Muscle Hamster” immediately springs to mind as well, both for its hilarity and physically accurate description.  Though the Tampa Bay running back has gone on record as being a vocal detractor of the rodent-esque comparison, today’s 24/7 sports media monster has already ensured it will remain ingrained in our subconscious long after Martin retires.

With that being said, one of the league’s simplest nicknames is arguably the most fitting – cornerback Darrelle Revis’ “Revis Island.”  Simply put, over the course of his six-year career, the former Jet and freshly minted Buccaneer has consistently matched up one-on-one with the NFL’s best pass catchers.  The lack of any assisting coverage has effectively put him on a metaphorical, man-to-man “island.”  Much to their owners’ chagrin, once anchored on Revis Island, these opposing receivers have had about as much success escaping as Gilligan, the Skipper, Ginger and the rest of terminally shipwrecked.

In order to elucidate just how dominant Revis has been, let’s look at the numbers.  Consider the following table, which documents Revis’ defensive prowess over his past three fully healthy seasons (2008, 2009 and 2011):

chart1

*Data courtesy of Pro Football Focus

In addition to the statistics above, Revis is also exceptionally hard to score upon, never having surrendered more than four touchdowns in a season.  Suffice it to say, a visit to Revis Island is no five-star vacation cruise.

For the duration of his career, Revis has tormented his counterparts in the AFC East for two games apiece each year.  However, 2013 marks a change in Revis’ locale, as he was recently acquired by Tampa Bay in return for this year’s first-round pick (#13 overall), as well as a conditional 2014 pick.  This means that instead of facing off against Stevie Johnson, Mike Wallace and Danny Amendola, Revis will now combat the likes of Roddy White, Julio Jones, Marques Colston and Steve Smith.

Given his legit shutdown ability, dynasty owners should take note.  Though one of the prevailing mantras of fantasy football is to always “start your studs,” doing so against Revis will likely result in a case of temporary statistical melancholy.  When healthy, he’s truly that darn good.

Speaking to his physical condition, it’s understandable to anticipate some rust and reduced effectiveness.  In fact, though Revis passed the Bucs’ physical, he wasn’t offered any guaranteed money, and is essentially playing on a year-to-year basis.   With that said, Revis is still relatively young and tore his ACL early on in the 2012 season.  Given that ACL injuries aren’t as bad as once feared, it’s more than reasonable to expect him to return to peak form and stick with Tampa for the long haul.

How might this potentially affect the fantasy landscape?  On the surface, the addition of Revis (as well as safety Dashon Goldson) should immediately serve to transform the Bucs’ 32nd ranked passing defense.  Digging deeper, how will the individual fates of the aforementioned NFC South receivers be impacted?

The following table shows how Revis’ potential targets (victims?) have performed against Tampa Bay in the past.  These numbers only take into account the years in which each receiver has been paired with his current quarterback (from 2009 on, as weekly targets weren’t recorded prior), so as to minimize statistical aberrations.

chart2

With the exception of Smith, all of the above receivers have performed, on average, as WR2’s or better when it comes to playing against the Bucs.  In Jones’ case, his two-year per-game average against Tampa would have ranked as the third best 2012 weekly output amongst qualifying receivers.  In other words, there is plenty of room for drop-off.

To what end does this potential for statistical reduction extend?  If each receiver succumbed to the average Revis treatment, how might their stats look?  Superimposing the two sets of data above, the results are staggering:

chart3

*Assumes the maximum touchdowns/game allowed by Revis (0.25)

**Revis’ per-game PPR points against for the three-year average calculates to be 7.1

Given that the most positive figure in the table above is Smith’s “not applicable” rate of scoring, it’s safe to say Revis will detrimentally impact each receiver’s box score.  Jones is affected to the largest degree, as he’s made a habit of producing big games against his divisional rival.  According to the data, should he be shadowed by Revis, Jones is likely to see a dramatic downturn in receiving yards, touchdowns, and PPR points per game.

To a similar, but slightly lesser degree, both White and Colston are primed to suffer.  Though neither has experienced deviational production above the mean against the Bucs, they’ve both provided steady, “startable” numbers over the course of four-plus years.  Even Smith, who has wallowed in relative mediocrity against Tampa with quarterback Cam Newton at the helm, is in line for a decrease in effectiveness.  Though he’s only performed at a WR6-type level, the data shows it can indeed still get worse.

Despite overwhelming evidence to the contrary, there still exists a silver lining beneath this dark statistical cloud.  The first is that as White and Jones play for the same team, it’s impossible for Revis to cover both for a full game.  Given his youth and physical attributes, it’s likely Jones will be marked for shadow coverage, potentially yielding even greater statistics for White, due to increased opportunities.

Also of consequence is the fact each receiver will only square off against Revis for a maximum of two regular season games each year.  Though this still accounts for 12.5% of the schedule, if these games fall early enough in the season, they shouldn’t impact the crucial fantasy playoff push.  Aiding in this is the fact that due to a relatively new NFL scheduling quirk, each week 17 game will be comprised of divisional adversaries.  As the vast majority of fantasy football leagues conclude the previous week, the “Revis effect” will be cut in half for one lucky receiver (and his corresponding owner).

While it’s rare that a team will trade its best defensive player, the New York Jets did just that by sending Revis to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.  Though he’s coming off of a substantial knee injury, Revis still offers elite upside as the league’s preeminent cover corner.  Given that knowledge, the top receivers of the NFC South shouldn’t be making any off-season vacation plans anytime soon.  They already have visits to “Revis Island” pending, and there are no guarantees they’ll be leaving anytime soon.

Follow me on Twitter @EDH_27

[ad1]

eric hardter