2013 Dynasty Rookie Rankings: Consensus 11-20

Jeff Haverlack

johnathan_franklin3Yesterday we completed our review of DLF’s Consensus Top Ten Dynasty Rookie Rankings for 2013.  Now we turn our focus to the second set of ten players that you should have your eye when your rookie draft gets underway.

Let’s just jump right in, shall we?

11.  Robert Woods, WR BUF

He’s as pro-ready as Keenan Allen in San Diego and has a better chance to start.  In fact, a report recently surfaced suggesting Woods is expected to start across from Stevie Johnson in his first year.  The Bills will have a new quarterback under center once again, but with more weapons on offense, Woods does have a better chance of seeing quality targets from his first game.  He’s not as dynamic as some of the other players in the top ten, but we like his route running ability, starting situation and pro-ready skill set.

He won’t be a sexy selection, but he’s an intelligent, tough and able player who should have a relatively low bust factor.

12.  Tyler Eifert, TE CIN

We’re not sure whether to be more disappointed for Jeremy Gresham, Tyler Eifert or both of them.  Truth be told, while Gresham has been serviceable as a starting tight end, he hasn’t produced to expectations and Eifert has the ability to stretch the field, in addition to making the tough catches across the middle.  In short, he’s got more upside and should eventually take over as the Bengals’ primary option at the position.  With many teams migrating to two tight ends sets to pressure opposing linebackers, the risk is that Gresham and Eifert will remain on the field together without either one of them producing to any great degree.

Despite the risks, Eifert’s ceiling is too high to allow him to slip much beyond the first round in fantasy drafts.  There are flashier picks available, but you won’t go fantasy-broke by loading up on the top talent in each skill position.

13.  Jonathan Franklin, RB GB

Franklin slid mightily on draft day.  Once considered a sure fire second round selection and even being discussed as a late first rounder, he fell precipitously as team after team (obviously concerned about his size), passed him over.  When it was all said and done, the Packers added Franklin either as the best player available, a third down complementary back or simply to push the higher-selected Eddie Lacy.  In any case, Franklin is a fine talent for the Packers and has starting ability.

He makes for a risky selection high in the second round and may be best as a pure handcuff for those selecting Lacy high in the first.  It’s not a an exciting way to spend a second round pick, but there is a level of prudence involved that is undeniable when considering the fact that Eddie Lacy, himself, is not guaranteed of being the opening day starter.

14.  Marcus Lattimore, RB SF

All fantasy players are already acutely familiar with the plight of Marcus Lattimore.  There’s not a bad word that can be uttered about the young player.  His drive, character and determination to get back on the field at the earliest possible time are inspirational.  He continues to rehab aggressively and his selection by the 49ers is an ideal landing spot as he’s now able to completely focus on getting healthy without any expectations of seeing even a single touch in 2013.  Healthy or not, it behooves San Francisco to keep him on ice for the entire year.

When healthy, Lattimore is a sure-fire first round talent.  But after dueling ACL injuries, the first of which did take some level of physicality out of his game, we must face the reality that he may not return to the player he was, even after the first ACL.  We’re not about to bet against the young man and we wish him all the luck in the world as he fights to get back on the field.  We wouldn’t hold it against anyone who selects him prior to 1.10 simply out of respect and hope for the player.  But when surveying the landscape of rookie players objectively, the early to middle second round is where Lattimore is best balanced between risk and reward.

15.  E.J. Manuel, QB BUF

Prior to being selected as the first quarterback off the board, Manuel had been rising on my board at an ever-quickening pace.  As it turns out, he made the same rise in at least one war room on draft day as he was selected as the only first round quarterback in 2013.

Buffalo quarterbacks typically don’t perform well in fantasy, or the NFL.  A combination of being perennially underperforming combined with brutal late season weather usually creates an environment that fantasy players steer clear of. His large size, live arm and ability to break from the pocket ultimately proved to be too much for the Bills’ brass to withstand.  He’s as raw as most rookies making the transition from college, but he’s also got the intangibles to be a quality starter if he’s not rushed into the role.

In fantasy, we prefer more sure things at the quarterback position, especially from the first one off the board.  In absence of that, you have Manuel, with a world of upside and an clear path to starting sooner rather than later.

16.  Stedman Bailey, WR STL

The value of Bailey is all over the map following the draft.  Ultra-productive in college, he doesn’t flash any dynamic other than the ability to get open, make the catch and score touchdowns while at West Virginia.

We still can’t be sure Bailey didn’t ride the coat tails of fellow West Virgina teammate (and now Ram teammate) Tavon Austin, but we’re sure to find out within the next two years.  It’s impossible to tell exactly what the Rams have in mind as they have now spent multiple draft on receivers in the past two NFL drafts.  With Austin occupying the slot, Bailey will need to earn his keep on the outside, a role that may be beyond his capability at the next level.  Pick fifteen may seem high for Bailey, but his ultra-productive value deem him worthy of this selection.

17.  Geno Smith, QB NYJ

The Jets front office has bristled at being called a circus, proving they have their blinders securely in place.  How a club can make the mistakes they have in the recent past and be oblivious to, or in complete disregard of, the events that created the atmosphere in the first place is beyond us.  That fact alone serves to show the Jets aren’t in a position to be considered even remotely as a contending team.  Not only have they created a circus atmosphere, they’ve erected the tent, have trained the animals and have sent in the clowns.  It is what it is.

Smith has the tangible qualities to be a starting quarterback in the NFL.  He’s more accurate than given credit for, has extremely good velocity and can spin it with the best of them.  His footwork does break down as he breaks the pocket, he’s extremely inconsistent on tape and one has to question his emotional fortitude.

Ladies and Gentleman:  Now in the center ring for your enjoyment, we bring you Geno Smith.  Good luck kid … you’ll be starting before the year is out.  For better or worse.

18.  Zac Stacy, RB STL

Having perused multiple boards, coaches are falling all over themselves for the abilities and situation of Stacy.  To wit, he falls into a great situation with only young players Daryl  Richardson and Isaiah Pead ahead of him on the depth chart.  Both players are undersized while Stacy is a full two inches shorter, but 20 pounds heavier.  Watching tape of Stacy will elici some level of excitement as he does his best Maurice Jones-Drew impersonation, albeit without the same agility.

With the second round winding down, you could do much worse with your selection.  We like Stacy’s upside from this point in the draft.

19.  Christine Michael, RB SEA

It’s a shame to see such talent go to waste, at least early in a player’s career.

Michael is a powerful downhill runner with a quick first step and elite burst through seams and running lanes.  But in Seattle, already with Marshawn Lynch and Robert Turbin on the roster, he would appear to be destined for a lot of watching, rather than playing, at least through 2014.  While anything is possible, we have to suggest a much later selection of Michael than we would otherwise suggest based on talent.  We understand Seattle’s desire to draft based on value when the time comes, but this selection was a reach and not remotely close to filling a need.  You’ll likely want to take the same approach in fantasy.

20.  Terrance Williams, WR DAL

The ‘Boys like their big receivers and Williams is big enough to qualify.  He’s a bit of a single dimensional receiver, but we do like that dimension.  He’s tall, with a good catch radius and he understands how to use his body.  He’s not overly physical, but does have some Terrell Owens in him with the ball in his hands.

Williams is a true boom or bust candidate and he’s not likely to produce in the the next two years.  If you have the patience, Williams makes for a nice addition late in your second round of rookie drafts.

jeff haverlack