Exclusive NFL Draft Pick-by-Pick Analysis

That’s it gang!

The 2013 NFL Draft is in the books and we’re currently working on all our post-draft content. Thanks to all our loyal followers for following us through the draft.

#236 Chicago Bears – Marquess Wilson, WR WSU

Wilson was one of the hotter names coming into this season, but his last year as a Cougar was an absolute disaster culminating in him quitting the team after accusing Mike Leach of abuse.

Wilson is a talented player and finds himself in a place that needs productive receivers. He likely won’t be taken in many rookie drafts, but I’ll be keeping my eye on him during training camps.

#234 – Denver Broncos – Zac Dysert, QB MIA (OH)

Dysert was one of my favorite sleeper quarterbacks in this class and he’ll get a shot to compete with Brock Osweiler in camp. While he’s likely headed to the practice squad, he’s not without talent. Plus, I still have questions about Osweiler’s ability to lead mostly because he just seems creepy.

Editor’s Note: Yes, we’re in the seventh round and I’m 7,000 words into this, but that’s still not why I think Osweiler is creepy. Watch him talk and you’ll have nightmares.

#230 – Indianapolis Colts – Kerwynn Williams, RB UTAH ST

Look, when you get to round seven, most of the players may not even make the team. When I look for sleepers this deep, I try to find a team with a need at a certain position and attempt to throw some darts. Bullseye!

#228 – Washington Redskins – Jawan Jamison, RB RUTG

Nope, still not concerned about Alfred Morris. I would be concerned if I owned Evan Royster or Roy Helu, however.

#190 – Cincinnati Bengals – Rex Burkhead, RB NEB

You have to wonder just how many carries the unimpressive BGE will get next year now that the Bengals have added Burkhead to go with Giovani Bernard. It’s not really tough to envision a Bernard-led backfield with Burkhead taking some power runs away.

#189 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Mike James, RB MIA

James is a short yardage option, but don’t expect him to beat out Doug Martin for any worthwhile snaps. What’s most notable here is the Bucs sending LeGarrette Blount to New England earlier in the day and replacing him with James.

#187 – Arizona Cardinals – Andre Ellington, RB CLEM

Interesting.

The Cardinals took Stepfan Taylor earlier in the draft and it would be somewhat surprising to see them have Mendenhall, Williams, Taylor and Ellington all on the active roster. Taylor and Ellington may be fighting for a roster spot, while the other may be looking at the practice squad. My money is on Ellington beating out Taylor if that’s what it comes down to.

#182 – Carolina Panthers – Kenjon Barner, RB ORE

Just so we couldn’t go a year without the Panthers us kicking in the groin, they take Barner and turn him into a kick returner. Great.

#181 – Oakland Raiders – Latavius Murray, RB CENT FLA

Any running back behind Darren McFadden is worth monitoring and likely worth a late rookie pick as well.

#171 – Detroit Lions – Corey Fuller, WR VA TECH

Yet another decent landing spot for a receiver. While there are many more talented players ahead of him on the board, Detriot is really looking for a complement to Megatron. Could Fuller emerge eventually?

#164 – Miami Dolphins – Mike Gillislee, RB FLA

If Gillislee comes in and plays well, he could make a run at Daniel Thomas as soon as this off-season. Lamar Miller is also unproven, so Gillislee (like King) is a player to watch.

#161 – Denver Broncos – Tavarres King, WR UGA

King was productive for Georgia last season with 42 catches for 950 yards and nine touchdowns. With Eric Decker’s contract coming to an end, King is a player to really keep your eye on – I really like this pick for the Broncos and in the mid-to-late rounds in rookie drafts.

#160 – St. Louis Rams – Zac Stacy, RB VAND

You want another sleeper? Here you go!

Stacy was productive in the SEC, despite playing on a talent deficient (at least in comparison to other “NFL” teams in the SEC). He posted 1,141 yards and ten touchdowns for the Commodores last season. He’s 5’9″ and 210 pounds, but proved he could be a workhorse.

The Rams traded up to get Stacy and the combination of Isaiah Pead and Daryl Richardson wasn’t all that impressive last season.  We’ve said all along some second and third round picks could prove to be more valuable than some first round rookie picks this season and Stacy could be one of those players who greatly outplays his rookie draft position.

#154 – Washington Redskins – Chris Thompson, RB FSU

Go ahead and take him if you believe this is the next flavor of the month for Mike Shanahan. I don’t believe that for a second, though. Thompson is tiny at 5’7″ and 192 pounds – he could be insurance for Roy Helu or Evan Royster, but that’s about it.

#151 – Dallas Cowboys – Joseph Randle, RB OK ST

I was quietly hoping the Cowboys would take a running back, but this really isn’t the one I had hoped for. There are questions if Randle was the product of a system at Oklahoma State and his measureables tend to support that claim. Look for him to be more of a threat to Lance Dunbar and Phillip Tanner than DeMarco Murray. He should, however, be rostered in dynasty leagues because of Murray’s injury history.

#144 – New Orleans Saints – Kenny Stills, WR OKLA

There are always some nice sleepers who come from the fifth round and beyond – put me in the camp that includes Stills in the bunch this year. With Nick Toon and Joseph Morgan largely unproven, Stills has a chance to make some noise in camp. He’s a nice third round dart throw in dynasty league rookie drafts since he landed in an explosive offensive system that suits his skills.

#140 – Arizona Cardinals – Stepfan Taylor, RB STAN

Taylor dropped in the draft due some slow times at the combine and some disappointing game tape. He’ll battle for playing time, but is unlikely to make much of an impact early behind Rashard Mendenhall and Ryan Williams.

#135 – Jacksonville Jaguars – Denard Robinson, RB/WR/QB/KR MICH

Who knows what position he’ll actually play, but Robinson isn’t lacking in athletic ability – think Armanti Edwards when it comes to talent…hopefully he’ll have a more productive career.

For rounds five, six and seven, we’ll simply be focusing on the notable players taken.

#131 – San Francisco 49ers – Marcus Lattimore, RB S CAR

Finally.

Lattimore was looking like the sure-fire 1.01 in a future rookie draft two years ago, but times have changed after two extremely serious knee injuries. He tore left ACL during the 2011 season, then returned to the field in 2012. Unfortunately, he tore his right ACL, PCL, and LCL almost exactly one year after his first injury last October. With two reconstructed knees, his future is murky.

The concern with Lattimore revolves around his health and you’ll hear tons of reports of how well he’s doing. The problem I have is he looked much less explosive before his last injury.

The 49ers offer him a spot on a loaded depth chart with Frank Gore, Kendall Hunter and LaMichael James all on the roster. In a best case scenario, Lattimore is redshirted this year (and possibly next), then takes over the power back role from Gore in a loaded committee attack. In a worst case scenario, he never sees the field again – that’s quite a range.

Had Lattimore gone to a different location, his prospects may have looked a little better. However, having him sit isn’t the worst thing in the world, either. He’ll be taken late in the second or third round of most rookie drafts as the ultimate risk/reward pick.

#128 – San Francisco 49ers – Quinton Patton, WR LA TECH

If you want production, look no further. Patton posted 183 catches, 2,594 yards and 24 touchdowns in his career. Oh yeah, that was in just two years.

There were better landing spots for Patton, but he’ll have a legitimate chance to learn and could push last year’s first round pick, AJ Jenkins, for valuable playing time early.

#125 – Green Bay Packers – Johnathan Franklin, RB UCLA

Wow #4.

The Packers have re-built their backfield through the draft and the value of DuJuan Harris and James Starks has been thrown out the window.

There are questions about the work ethic and durability of Eddie Lacy. With Franklin, the Packers have a major insurance policy.

From a dynasty perspective, this is one of those situations you cant foresee, but ends up being a nightmare. Franklin is unquestionably good enough to take some snaps from Lacy and could really push him in camp. The value of both backs just went down a bit with this pick as the Packers backfield looks like a talented young timeshare.

Franklin has gone from a sure-fire top five rookie pick to a likely second rounder in a hurry.

#123- Seattle Seahawks – Chris Harper, WR KSU

Harper is going to be a project for Seattle and finds himself in the middle of a suddenly crowded receiving corps. Don’t expect much for a while from Harper.

#115 – Pittsburgh Steelers – Landry Jones, QB OKLA

See Nassib, Ryan.

#112 – Oakland Raiders – Tyler Wilson, QB ARK

Matt Flynn is just about tired of his teams drafting rookie quarterbacks with the last name of Wilson about now. The bad thing for Flynn is this Wilson also has some talent. He was once projected to be a high first round pick, but really regressed as his career moved on. On the positive side, he’s the anti-Carson Palmer and has no problem hanging in and taking a tough hit without then deciding to leave to try another team.

This is a flyer pick for the Raiders as they try to catch lightning in a bottle with Wilson. Flynn will have a bit of a camp battle on his hands, but he should be expected to win it.  His long-term leash may have just been shortened a bit, though.

#110 – New York Giants – Ryan Nassib, QB SYR

Yikes.

Nassib was projected to go as high as #8 to the Bills and he fell all the way to #110 due to so many teams addressing the position through free agency. Nassib should be a clear upgrade to David Carr and Curtis Painter as a future backup to Eli Manning, but anyone taking Nassib in a rookie draft is going to have sit on him for several years and hope he can develop into the heir apparent to Manning or be traded in the future.

Unfortunately, the shine is off Nassib in dynasty leagues and he’s going to be no better than a late round pick or flyer for dynasty teams.

#106 – Miami Dolphins – Dion Sims, TE MICH ST

Sims can catch, but he likely won’t be asked to in Miami. He’s a solid blocking tight end and that’s going to likely be his role. Dustin Keller is on a one year deal, so Sims could be given a chance to develop, but that’s likely not enough for him to be taken in rookie drafts. On a side note, Michael Egnew looks like a complete bust.

#102 – New England Patriots – Josh Boyce, WR TCU

It’s clear the Patriots are rebuilding their receiving corps through the draft as they selected Boyce to go along with Aaron Dobson. Boyce is an extremely fast receiver who is also a little undersized at 5’11” and 206 pounds. He’s coming off an injury which required surgery, so that likely had him drop a bit in the draft. Make no mistake, this kid is talented. The Pats are not known for being good at unearthing receivers, but Boyce or Dobson will likely emerge to have a role this season.

#101 – Jacksonville Jaguars – Ace Sanders, WR SC

Sanders is small. And when we say small, we mean small. At 5’7″ and 173 pounds, he projects as a slot receiver or special teams player. The Jags are sitting pretty well at receiver with Justin Blackmon, Jordan Shipley and Cecil Shorts, so Sanders will be no more than a late round rookie flyer and is more than likely going to go undrafted in most dynasty league rookie drafts.

#98 – Philadelphia Eagles – Matt Barkley, QB USC

The Eagles traded up in the fourth round to take Barkley after the former Trojan slipped through the first three rounds. It’s really an ideal spot for Barkley to develop,

While many people unfamiliar with the offense Chip Kelly runs may think Barkley doesn’t fit the mold of a quarterback in that system because he’s not an elite athlete, that really isn’t the case. The one thing a signal caller in this offense needs to be is smart. Barkley is an experienced quarterback who isn’t unfamiliar with pressure or lofty expectations.

Barkley will sit behind Michael Vick and Nick Foles at first, but Vick has a tendency to get hurt and Foles has yet to prove he can handle the new offense. It’s hard to envision him starting this season, but it’s logical to expect a Foles vs. Barkley competition next off-season.

Barkley will likely be a late second or early third round pick in dynasty leagues.

Saturday, 9:00 AM PDT

There are still some very interesting names out there who should come off the board on Saturday.  This includes all the following:

Quarterbacks

Zac Dysert
Tyler Wilson
Matt Barkley
Ryan Nassib
Tyler Bray
Landry Jones

Running Backs

Joseph Randle
Andre Ellington
Marcus Lattimore
Stepfan Taylor
Johnathan Franklin
Zac Stacy
Kenjon Barner

Wide Receivers

Quinton Patton
Da’Rick Rogers
Ryan Swope
Marquess Wilson

#96 – Kansas City Chiefs – Knile Davis, RB ARK

Davis is a huge question mark and finds himself in a tough spot with the Chiefs. He’ll compete with Shaun Draughn and Cyrus Gray for carries behind Jamaal Charles. Davis looks great in a t-shirt, but he just wasn’t that productive and has battled injuries in the past. He’s incredibly inconsistent and it will be interesting to see how he handles being on the bench even when healthy. He’ll be a late round flyer in dynasty leagues, but could pay off for extremely patient owners with really deep rosters.

#92 – St. Louis Rams – Stedman Bailey, WR WVU

Bailey joins Tavon Austin as the Mountaineer receivers find themselves together again in St. Louis. Here’s a bit of trivia for you. Here are the receiving stats for the two West Virginia players from last year:

Player “A” = 114 catches, 1,622 yards (14.2 average) and 25 touchdowns
Player “B” = 114 catches, 1,289 yards (11.3 average) and 12 touchdowns

Player “A” is Stedman Bailey and Player “B” is Tavon Austin. While it’s hard to argue Austin isn’t the more talented player, Bailey has been talked about way too little in my opinion.

If you could take Austin at #1 overall or trade back to around #15 and pick up another stud player AND draft Bailey at that spot, would it be worth it?  Something to think about for sure.

#85 – Washington Redskins – Jordan Reed, TE FLA

Reed has slipped under the radar a bit, but there are a few analysts who feel he’s a major sleeper. He’ll play behind Fred Davis, but could be his eventual replacement if he develops quickly. Some have compared him to Aaron Hernandez and that can’t be a bad thing. Reed will be late round pick in rookie drafts, but he’s worth a shot, especially in TE-premium leagues.

#79 – Pittsburgh Steelers – Markus Wheaton, WR OR ST

I love this pick. Not LIKE, but LOVE.

Wheaton is a multi-talented receiver who really started rising on draft boards late in the process. The Steelers are really in need of playmakers at receiver now that Mike Wallace is gone and Wheaton should be able to provide a complement to Antonio Brown and Emmanuel Sanders. 

Wheaton caught 91 passes for 1,244 yards and 11 touchdowns last year for the Beavers. He’s extremely explosive and can make plays in space – just what the Steelers need.

I’m really liking the draft value of both Wheaton and Keenan Allen right now.

#78 – Buffalo Bills – Marquise Goodwin, WR TEX

You remember in Forrest Gump when Forrest would just run down the field and not stop? That’s pretty much what you get in Goodwin who has elite (we’re talking 4.2 or 4.3 40) speed and little else at the moment.  He’s small, but he’s also improving pretty rapidly. He’s a major project, but if he hits (and that’s a big “if”), he could be a really good player because he has something you can’t coach – speed.

#76 – San Diego Chargers – Keenan Allen, WR CAL

Allen and Eddie Lacy both experienced serious drops in the draft. Allen tore his PCL and had a suspicious red flag for a drug test at the combine this year. Combine that with some horrible 40 times in the 4.7 range and you have a player who dropped way further than they ever expected.

All is not lost for Allen.

San Diego really needs playmakers and he should be able to compete with Danario Alexander (speaking of inuries), Malcom Floyd and Vincent Brown for meaningful playing time as early as this season.

He’s a first round pick in both reality and fantasy based on talent alone. We’ve said all along this year’s rookie drafts will likely yield some second round rookie picks who perform better than first rounders – after being taken in the third round of the actual draft, it’s likely Allen will slip into the second round of those rookie drafts and be a candidate to severely outperform his draft slot.

I really like the look of his value in rookie drafts at the moment.

#74 – Dallas Cowboys – Terrance Williams, WR BAY

Miles Austin, welcome to the hot seat. While Williams has virtually no chance of unseating Austin for quality playing time, the selection could indicate the Cowboys are indeed growing tired of Austin’s constant injury woes.

Williams is the definition of productivity as he posted a ridiculous 97 catches  for 1,832 yards and 12 scores for Baylor last season. Had he run a faster 40 time (he ran in the 4.5’s) at the combine, he would have likely gone a round sooner.  I believe those numbers are deceiving as he averaged almost 19 yards per catch last season.

Williams needs to put on some muscle and become much more physical in order to be successful at the NFL level. He’ll likely be a late second or early third round dynasty pick, but one with some pretty good upside.

#73 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Mike Glennon, QB NC STATE

This is Proof you can still be taken highly when you aren’t a great athlete, but have an absolute hose for an arm. Glennon is very tall (6’7″) and only weighs 225 pounds, so he has some room to fill out. The comparisons to Joe Flacco aren’t really fair at this point, but they are pretty accurate as far as their talents go – they can both throw the ball accurately and can toss it right out of the stadium if they needed to.

In Tampa, Glennon has a legitimate chance to learn this season and possibly compete to be the starter as soon as 2014 if Josh Freeman continues to struggle.  He’s a major dart throw, but the fact the Bucs took him in round three isn’t really a vote of confidence for Freeman, either.

#63 – Kansas City Chiefs – Travis Kelce, TE CIN

If I own Tony Moeaki, I’d be looking elsewhere for production. Kelce is one of my favorite sleepers in this draft. He has great size (6’5″ and 255 pounds) and the production to match it. He can block, catch and run. His measureables are off the charts and while he is still a bit of a project, he has great (if not elite) upside.

You can spend a late first or early second round pick on Ertz or Eifert, but I’d rather take Kelce much later and go for the high ceiling and value. Andy Reid is creative on offense and can find a way to get talented players the football.

#62 – Seattle Seahawks – Christine Michael, RB TEXAS A&M

Seeing Ball, Bell and Lacy all go to good spots was pretty exciting. Unfortunately, those who hoped Michael would join the group going to solid landing spots had to be disappointed when Seattle took him. With Marshawn Lynch (who is still pretty young) and the exciting Robert Turbin already in tow, this was a shock of a selection. Of course, the Seahawks are one of a very few teams without a glaring need and have the luxury to throw some darts.

Michael has serious talent. Like SERIOUS talent. However, he has some pretty serious character issues and has a torn ACL on his resume. If you’re looking for short-term production, this isn’t your guy. If you have a team with a lot of great players and want to take a shot on someone who could be a complete bust or the best player from this class, be my guest.

#61 – Green Bay Packers – Eddie Lacy, RB ALA

Wow #3.

Lacy’s drop was huge as most expected him to go in the late first or early second round, not all the way down to #61. Apparently people were scared off by his injury history and lack of work in the pre-draft process. He’s also been accused of being ultra-productive mostly because he was running behind an NFL-caliber offensive line while playing at Alabama.

First, the positives.

Lacy ran with the starting job for the Crimson Tide this year after the exit of Trent Richardson and rushed for 1,322 yards on just 204 carries, good for a yards per carry average of 6.5. Amazingly, that average was actually a step down from his previous two years where he averaged over seven yards a carry playing in the SEC. Add on 17 touchdowns and you have the definition of a stud.

Now, the negatives.

I mentioned the offensive line and his lack of work (caused by some minor injuries) before the draft knocking him down a ways. It has to be concern we never really saw him healthy before the draft. In addition, he’s not really the pass catcher the Packers need him to be out of the backfield quite yet.

And finally, the reality.

While many may feel like Lacy going to Green Bay is like hitting the lottery, I don’t believe that’s the case at all. The Packers didn’t give Aaron Rodgers the contract they did to see him hand the ball off to Lacy. This was, is, and will be a pass first offense with a running game used to keep defenses halfway honest. You can expect him to get around 15-18 touches in a best case scenario with Green Bay. While that’s more than enough to make him productive, Lacy is no lock to be the first pick (or even the first running back taken) in dynasty league drafts this Summer.

#59 – New England Patriots – Aaron Dobson, WR MARSH

Dobson was not one of our highest rated receivers going into the draft, but his landing spot merits some immediate attention. He has nice size at 6’3′ and 210 pounds and projects to be an outside receiver for Tom Brady and the high flying Patriots offense. He’s reliable as a receiver, but doesn’t have the pedigree that others on the board had.

Interesting.

#58 – Denver Broncos – Montee Ball, RB WISC

And that giant sigh you hear comes from owners of Ronnie Hillman. Ball is going to be a factor in the Broncos backfield and is likely going to open the door for Denver to release Willis McGahee. Make no mistake, this is a blow to the value of McGahee, Knowshon Moreno and Ronnie Hillman.

There were lots of places where Ball could go, but this is one of the better ones. While he may be part of a big committee, he’ll have a chance to be pretty productive in an offense that defenses have to focus on from the outside in. He will HAVE to prove he can pass block, but if he can (as expected), he has a chance to be ultra-productive for the Broncos and their explosive offense.

Ball just went from a fringe first round pick to a player who will be considered near or at the top of rookie drafts.

#55 – San Francisco 49ers – Vance McDonald, TE RICE

McDonald will try to fill the void left by Delanie Walker, not replace Vernon Davis. The 49ers have a ton of weapons on offense and it’s going to be quite some time before McDonald is likely in the mix. He’s a project and is going to be a late round pick in most dynasty league rookie drafts at best.

#48 – Pittsburgh Steelers – Le’Veon Bell, RB MICH ST

Wow.

Aside from EJ Manuel being taken at #16, this was the biggest surprise in the draft as few saw Bell going ahead of Eddie Lacy. Bell should be a bruiser, but he’s just not that impressive on tape. He looks like he’s without reckless abandon half the time and just doesn’t make many people miss or create many plays out of nowhere. He also doesn’t run with the kind of power you’d expect from a back his size.

On the positive side, Bell can catch the ball pretty well for a big man (6’1″ and 230 pounds) and posted 1,793 yards and 12 touchdowns last season for the Spartans. He’s a risk, but the Steelers tend to know what they’re doing.

Pittsburgh has to be hoping they have a Steven Jackson-like player in Bell. If anything, he should be an upgrade over players like Jonathan Dwyer and Isaac Redman. If you want him, he’s going to be mid-first round pick in a lot of rookie drafts this year.

#41 – Buffalo Bills – Robert Woods, WR USC

As we wrote in our “WR Destinations” article, this was certainly a need for the Bills, but the quarterback play was a question mark. Well, it still is even with the addition of EJ Manuel. However, it’s hard not to get excited for the prospects of Woods. He’s going to be a riskier player than we thought he would be at this time last year, but he’s still a very talented receiver. Remember, this is a player who once posted 111 catches in a single season at USC.

Woods should battle TJ Graham for targets behind Stevie Johnson and he should be a big step up over the likes of Donald Jones or the band of other average receivers the Bills have been targeting over the past few years. Woods will likely be a late first or early second round selection in dynasty drafts.

#39 – New York Jets – Geno Smith, QB WVU

And the suffering comes to a close.

Much has been spoken and written about Geno Smith and there are still more questions than answers. On one hand, he has posted some incredible statistics, including throwing for 73 touchdowns and just 13 interceptions the past two seasons. On the other, you have a player who didn’t improve during the year and people questioning his maturity.

His pouty attitude didn’t help him much over the past couple of days, but it at least shows he cares. The big question is going to be how he handles a fan base like New York’s. What’s going to happen to him when he gets thrust into action too early (and I fully expect that to happen) and the fans turn on him?  Will he suck it up and improve or become Vince Young 2.0?

I love his skill set and wish the Jets had more talent to surround him with. In a perfect world, the Jets would let him sit for this entire season and let Mark Sanchez lead the team, but with a Head Coach on the hot seat and Sanchez regressing, that likely won’t happen unless the Jets go with David Garrard instead.

In short, the longer Smith can wait, the more I like his chances for success. He’s going to be a fringe first rounder in most rookie drafts this Summer.

#37 – Cincinnati Bengals  -Giovani Bernard, RB UNC

It only took a day and half, but we finally had a running back selected and it wasn’t Eddie Lacy. Bernard is small at 5’8″ and 202 pounds, but he doesn’t play that way. The Bengals were one of the prime spots for a running back and Bernard should add a pass catching dimension the Bengals have lacked for a long time. The days of BenJarvus Green-Ellis being a stand alone workhorse are all but over and Bernard has a chance to be a real weapon for Cincy and for dynasty league owners, especially in PPR leagues. While he may not be a true workhorse, Bernard is much more than a third down back.

This is bad news for Green-Ellis. While this move was pretty much expected, it still makes the Law Firm no better than a flex play at best moving forward.

#35 – Philadelphia Eagles – Zach Ertz, TE STAN

A bit of a surprise here with Geno Smith still on the board, but Chip Kelly knows Ertz well from his time in the PAC-12. Ertz has some serious blocking deficiencies, but he can catch the ball. Last year, he had 69 catches for 898 yards and six touchdowns. He’s a perfect weapon for the Eagles and should be able to help the offense quite a bit if he’s not asked to block much and just told to run some deep routes and take advantage of mismatches.

It’s not going to be surprising to see many dynasty teams take Ertz over Eifert, though I wouldn’t touch either in anything higher than the second round, and even then, I’d likely let someone else take them and hope I could land Travis Kelce (if he lands somewhere good) if I had a glaring need at the position.

#34 – Tennessee Titans – Justin Hunter, WR TEN

The Titans moved up to the top of the second round to take the uber-talented Hunter to add to their receiving mix. Jake Locker is getting every opportunity in the world to be successful and now the Titans have Hunter, Kenny Britt and Kendall Hunter to give him three bona fide receiving weapons.

The addition of Hunter gives the Titans some much needed insurance for Britt, since he still hasn’t recovered fully from his injury and has a serious knucklehead factor that goes with him. It’s also becoming pretty tough to see Nate Washington staying in Tennessee.  Damian Williams has been a deep roster stash for years, but that time is also likely over.

As for Hunter, he has the potential to be a WR1, though Locker’s development will have a ton of influence on if that can happen in the short-term. He’s extremely gifted physically and should be fully recovered from his injury two years ago. There are many who like Hunter better than Cordarrelle Patterson and I’m one of them.

Hunter is going to go somewhere in the mid-first round in rookie drafts this Summer.

Friday, 3:30 PDT

Here we go!

It promises to be a wild and crazy night with a huge impact on dynasty leagues across the country. As such, expect the updates tonight to be a little different than last night and come in bigger chunks. We’re going to be taking our time a little on the write-ups, so they’ll come in two or three sections  instead of one at a time. For knee-jerk reaction to the picks, make sure you jump in on the chat.

Round Two – Friday, 7:00 AM PDT

The first round brought us some surprises and ended up being the first draft since 1963 when a running back wasn’t taken in round one. There are a ton of players to watch today and, as expected, rounds two and three promise to be much more exciting from a fantasy perspective. Here are some things I’m watching for today:

• Where will Geno Smith land?
• What about the other quarterbacks? Matt Barkley, Ryan Nassib, Landry Jones, Tyler Wilson, Mike Glennon and a host of others are waiting anxiously for the phone to ring.
• The running backs should start to find homes as well.  Eddie Lacy, Giovani Bernard and Montee Ball should hear their names called today.
• On the receiving front, Keenan Allen and Robert Woods are the most likely to go soon, but it’s all in flux.

1.29 – Minnesota Vikings – Cordarelle Patterson, WR TEN

Some may argue Justin Hunter is going to be the best receiver to come from Tennessee this year, but Patterson fills a huge void left by Percy Harvin in Minnesota and finds himself in a situation that should give him immediate playing time.

There are some serious questions about his ability to jump straight into the NFL, but he has some raw talent other receivers simply don’t have. With only one year of playing FBS football under his belt, he has a long way to go. He could turn into the next Demaryius Thomas or find himself as a total bust. Either way, he’s going to be in play for the top five in rookie drafts. In short, he’s the definition of upside and a monster risk/reward pick.

Christian Ponder is at least going to be given a puncher’s chance to be successful, but this offense looks much better on paper with Patterson and Greg Jennings.

1.27 – Houston Texans  – DeAndre Hopkins, WR CLEM

One of our own Andy Miley’s favorite players, Hopkins finds himself land in a great spot. As Andy says, “Hopkins gains separation by running clean, precise routes. He has soft hands and can make difficult receptions in traffic. He will probably never break the top ten dynasty wide receiver ranks, but he will be a top 20 player for he next five-to-ten years.”

Hopkins is big enough at 6’1″ and 214 pounds and productive enough as he posted 82 catches for 1,405 yards and 18 touchdowns. The Texans will expect Hopkins to develop very quickly and play right away opposite Andre Johnson. You have to bet they also hope he’s Johnson’s eventual replacement as their WR1.

The selection of Hopkins throws a big bucket of cold water on the values of Devier Posey, Keshawn Martin and especially Lestar Jean.

The Texans have been desperate to find a bona fide WR2 for the better part of the last decade and they may just have it in Hopkins. At this point, he’s looking like a top five dynasty rookie pick.

1.21 – Cincinnati Bengals – Tyler Eifert, TE CIN

Interesting.

The Bengals now have Jermaine Gresham and Eifert at Tight End to complement AJ Green and company. This move helps Andy Dalton and should allow the Bengals to be pretty creative on offense, but doesn’t help the dynasty values of Gresham or Eifert.

Tight end is a hot position, but I was going to be very, very hesitant in recommending taking Eifert in the first round unless he landed in an optimal spot and he didn’t. Fact is, beyond the big three of Jimmy Graham, Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez, the next group has such a huge bevy of similar players that it really isn’t worth the cost. Perhaps the Bengals won’t want to pay Gresham $2 million in 2014 (the last year of his contract) and will feature Eifert more in the long term. I just find it hard to believe the two of them can co-exist and put up Gronk/Hernandez-type numbers together.

When I saw the Falcons trade up to #22, I thought for sure that was their target and that would have been a much better team for him to land with.

Remember what we always say about rookie picks losing value after the draft?  Eifert could be a case in point.

1.16 – Buffalo Bills – EJ Manuel, QB FSU

Wow.

The Bills have been linked to Ryan Nassib and Geno Smith over the past few weeks, but they must have really become smitten with EJ Manuel over the past two weeks.  Very few people had Manuel going this high and even fewer had him as the first quarterback being taken in the draft. It certainly makes more sense now as to why the Bills traded down from #8 early on.

He gets a little lazy with his footwork and needs some work, but he’s extremely well spoken and is said to be a natural leader. He was solid last year (not spectacular) for the Seminoles as he passed for 3,392 yards and 23 touchdowns with ten interceptions. He also has great size  (6’4″, 5/8, 237) and is a solid athlete.

Make no mistake, Manuel is still a project.  Kevin Kolb’s dynasty value is back the tank now, but it’s going to be best for Manuel to sit a year if Kolb can stay upright.

If you’ve ever seen Manuel interviewed, you can see how a team could fall in love with him, but this is still a big surprise.

At this point, Manuel still looks like an early second round dynasty rookie pick to me, but we’ll see what happens!

Note: At this point, we’ll focus strictly on offensive skill position players unless something really surprising or unexpected happens.  Be sure to follow the IDP players in our other post, though.

1.10 – Tennessee Titans – Chance Warmack, OG ALA

Back-to-back Crimson Tide players go at nine and ten.  The Titans also needed some O-line help and while it’s not a sexy pick, it should help Chris Johnson and Jake Locker.

1.09 – New York Jets – Dee Milliner, CB ALA

Check out our IDP pick-by-pick analysis for coverage of this pick.

1.08 – St. Louis Rams (from Buffalo) – Tavon Austin, WR WVU

They say the new NFL game is played in space.  Well, if that holds true, the Rams just found themselves a true “slot machine” at receiver who can make plays with the best of them. Our own Jacob Feldman penned a great article on Austin earlier this week.  This is a fine pick by the Rams and Austin should fill the void left by Danny Amendola and then some. With Steven Jackson gone, Austin could very well be the best offensive weapon the Rams have next season and this is a huge pick for one Sam Bradford, who really needs to take the next step forward.

There are valid concerns about Austin (he’s only 5’8” and 174 pounds), but he has elite speed. And I mean ELITE.  I’ve seen him compared to DeSean Jackson more than anyone else, but his game should translate better to the NFL.

Meanwhile, it’s interesting the Bills passed on all the quarterbacks – they certainly must expect one of their two or three favorites to drop to them later.  They made a quite a haul, getting picks 16, 46, 78 and 222 from the Rams.

1.07 – Arizona Cardinals – Jonathan Cooper, OG UNC

There were teams with needs on the line, then there were the Cardinals.  They just had to go O-line.

1.06 – Cleveland Browns – Barkevious Mingo, DE LSU

Check out our IDP pick-by-pick analysis for coverage of this pick.  Interesting, though.  The Browns were rumored to be moving down to get a quarterback, but this could bode well for Brandon Weeden.

1.05 – Detroit Lions – Ezekiel “Ziggy” Ansah, DE BYU

Check out our IDP pick-by-pick analysis for coverage of this pick.

1.04 – Philadelphia Eagles – Lane Johnson, OT OKLA

The Eagles had to be sweating a little bit when the Dolphins moved up ahead of them, but had to breathe a sigh of relief when Miami took Jordan and saw Johnson slide to them.  Johnson is a freakish athlete and should fit really well into the up-tempo offense Kelly wants to employ. The Eagles could have moved back in the draft to get a quarterback, so this is good news (at least temporarily) for Michael Vick and Nick Foles.  You can bet LeSean McCoy is going to be happy to have Johnson in front of him on screen passes or carries.

1.03 – Miami Dolphins (from Oakland) – Dion Jordan, OLB ORE

Check out our IDP pick-by-pick analysis for coverage of this pick.

1.02 Jacksonville Jaguars – Luke Joeckel, LT TEX A&M

The Jags certainly hope Joeckel will give him the type of career Tony Boselli did for years. They still have a major need at quarterback, so they’ll be a team to watch as we move forward.  Somewhere out there, Maurice Jones-Drew is happy.

1.01 – Kansas City Chiefs – Eric Fisher, LT C MICH

No shocker here.

There was some conjecture early that Geno Smith could be in play for the Chiefs, but they seemingly decided to take a tackle here over a month ago. On paper, Fisher should help Jamaal Charles and the running game and hopefully keep Alex Smith upright. The fact the Chiefs passed on a quarterback is good news for not only Smith, but also for Chase Daniel, especially since they don’t have a second round pick.

Round One – Thursday, 4:45 PM PDT

Here we go!  My biggest questions of the night on the offensive side:

1.) Does Eddie Lacy go in round one?

2.) Does Geno Smith go in the top ten?

3.) How many QBs get taken tonight?

4.) Do more than two WRs go in round one?

5.) Who falls in love with Eifert?

Thursday, 4:30 AM PDT

Good morning everyone!

Welcome to the exclusive NFL Draft Pick-by-Pick Analysis post from DLF. It seems like we’ve again been waiting forever for the NFL Draft to arrive and it’s finally here. This will be an incredibly exciting weekend and we thank you, our Premium Content members, for spending it with us.  For many of you, this is your second NFL Draft as a Premium Member and your support fuels our fire! I’ll start off this morning by explaining a little bit about what to expect. For those of you who have been around, it will be much like last season.

1.) We’ll start off with some random comments and events from the day and follow that up with our exclusive analysis of the picks as they come in, starting this evening. This post will be continuously updated throughout the entire weekend, from the bottom up. So, expect to see the newest information at the top for convenience purposes – this will help you avoid the annoying refresh and scrolling down part of the experience. Harder for us, but seamless for you.  Easy choice for us, there.

2.) We’ll be sharing our thoughts on each of the relevant picks as they come in throughout the Draft. Many of you check the Rotoworld fantasy news feed, so think of it that way, but with more of a dynasty spin as we complete our wrap-ups.  We won’t be posting commentary on the 75th right guard taken, but expect anything important in relation to dynasty leagues being covered. We WILL cover some IDP players in other ways, but the focus here will be more on the offensive side of things.

3.) Feel free to make any comments here on the post, within the Premium (or free) forums or over at the live chat we’ll be facilitating. While I won’t have the ability to respond to many of the comments or questions immediately (I’ll have my hands full updating the post here), comments are encouraged.  You guys are all the “elite,” so I would expect some great discussions all over DLF the entire weekend.

We’re absolutely stoked to again be able to offer this to you guys as an exclusive part of your Premium Membership with us.  Thanks a ton for supporting DLF and enjoy the draft!

Oh, and one other thing.  Expect the initial downloadable draft sheet for the rookies and updated Rookie Draft Guide  (both exclusive for Premium Content members) to again be available earlier than you could possibly expect.