Final Pre-Draft Rookie Mock Draft: Round Two
The NFL Draft is rapidly approaching. The pro days are behind us at this point and the rumors are rapidly swirling about with landing places and reports from NFL teams. It is often known as misinformation season.
In order to help you sift through all of the information out there and get a handle on player values, we bring you another one of our staff rookie only mock drafts. This particular draft features three rounds and was conducted two weeks before the NFL Draft begins. At this point, we have most of the information we are going to receive about the players aside from exactly which team they will be playing for come Fall. Obviously landing spot makes a difference, but this is a good pre-draft view.
For this mock draft, we assumed it was a standard scoring PPR league with normal lineup requirements, meaning no IDP, super flex, or two quarterback leagues. Trades were not allowed. Draft order was randomly assigned and each drafter was asked to make a brief comment about why they made the pick they did. I’ll follow up each pick with some brief thoughts of my own. I’m not a draft expert, and like many of you, my rookie analysis is far from complete. I’m just sharing my thoughts so you get two opinions on each pick. In cases of disagreement, I’ll be the first to admit I might be the one who is wrong.
If you want to take a look at previous mock drafts we have done to get a sense of the risers and fallers, here you go:
Pre-combine: Round 1 and Round 2
Post-combine: Round 1, Round 2 and Round 3
Pre-Draft: Round 1
2.01 – Robert Woods, WR USC
(Pre-Combine 1.12, Post Combine 2.02)
Dan’s thoughts: Love his skill set. Big, physical, smart, strong. Best available player at this point.
My thoughts: After being considered as one of the top receiver prospects in this draft a little more than a year ago, Woods has been consistently taken in our drafts in the late first or early second range of picks. I’m not too sure what Dan likes about Woods because he’d didn’t go into much detail, but I completely disagree with viewing Woods as a strong, physical receiver. I think one of his major weaknesses will be beating press coverage in the NFL. Combine that with being very average in speed and quickness as well as some issues hanging onto the ball, and I still feel a little bit like he is a big name who might end up being a bit of a bust in the NFL.
2.02 – Zach Ertz, TE STAN
(Pre-Combine 1.06, Post Combine 2.01)
Mark’s thoughts: I was really hoping Christine Michael would fall to me, but was okay with picking up Ertz here.  There were some nice players left here such as Markus Wheaton, Quinton Patton and Da’Rick Rogers.  However, I felt like Ertz was the last guy left with the best chance to make my starting line up on a regular basis.  There have been mixed reviews of him as of late, but I still like his odds of being a very productive tight end in the NFL.
My thoughts: Ertz’s stock has been slowly falling, both in fantasy circles and in NFL circles. Personally, I have him in my second tier of tight ends at this point with the top tier only having one player. I would have gone for one of the receivers at this point, but if you are in need of a tight end, Ertz could be a very solid pass catching option. I think he is going to need to end up on a team that uses a lot of two tight end sets though, because he just can’t block.
2.03 – Da’Rick Rogers, WR TENN TECH
(Pre-Combine 2.09, Post Combine 2.07)
Eric H’s thoughts: With the comfort of having one of the draft’s top two running backs in the fold, I decided to throw caution to the wind by selecting Rogers. His size, speed and leaping ability scream elite athleticism, which he put on display in 2011 with a 1,000-yard season in the brutal SEC. There might be safer picks with fewer character concerns (Montee Ball was a close #2 here), but I’m going to trust his new coaches in the NFL will keep Rogers on the straight and narrow.
My thoughts: The lure of upside continues to push Rogers a little higher each time. The character concerns are obviously an issue, but the talent is undeniable. If character wasn’t a part of any discussion, Rogers would be ranked right up there with his former teammate, Justin Hunter. If he can find a team with a strong veteran receiver to show him the ropes and a coaching staff that will help get his head on straight he could easily be the steal of the NFL draft. I think he will stay an early to middle second round fantasy pick unless he ends up in a dream situation like Green Bay.
2.04 – Montee Ball, RB WISC
(Pre-Combine 1.11, Post Combine 1.07)
My thoughts: Ball has been my guy in all three of the mock drafts we have done now. Looking back on it, I think I reached a bit for him at 1.07 in the previous mock, but seeing him still around at 2.04 is almost criminal. While Ball isn’t going to wow anyone with any of his physical traits, he is a very good all-around back. He has the skill set to be a three down guy and has great vision, balance, patience, and instincts. When you add in his pass protection and ability to catch the ball you have someone that could be a very solid fantasy RB2. He is a pretty safe pick in my eyes, especially if he slips into the second round.
Detractors will point to a few issues, mostly his lack of speed. Ball definitely isn’t fast, but there are many examples of guys with limited speed that have everything else and succeed. Another concern for Ball is his health. Some point to his college workload as an issue, but I haven’t seen anything to convinces me that college touches dictate shorter careers than normal for running backs or higher injury rates, so I’m just not buying that one. The one healthy concern that I do have is the concussion. Prior to the 2012 season, Ball was attacked by multiple people, resulting in the concussion. It is something to watch going forward.
2.05 – Quinton Patton, WR LA TECH
(Pre-Combine 2.06, Post Combine 2.09)
Ryan’s thoughts: I like to load up on wide receivers and this will be a great draft to do that with players like Patton available in the mid second round. He has very good speed and great hands. His strong showings at both the Senior Bowl and the combine have him rising up draft boards. If Patton is asked to move to the slot, it could impede his fantasy impact in year one, but he is a player who can make an impact in the NFL and in dynasty leagues.
My thoughts: Patton has consistently been a middle second round fantasy pick, and I think that whoever gets him at this point should be very happy to do so. His availability is a testament to the depth at the wide receiver position this year. He has good speed, nice hands and runs solid routes. The only complaint I really have about Patton is that he can sometimes be a little inconsistent. He will make a great catch one play then let the next ball bounce into his chest or double catch one that should have been easy. Regardless, I’m liking him to be a solid complimentary receiver in the NFL.
2.06 – Andre Ellington, RB CLEM
(Pre-Combine Undrafted, Post Combine 1.12)
Tim’s thoughts: I’m not enamored with Ellington or this pick. He projects as a change of pace back which has marginal value in fantasy. Situation will dictate his (and other) RBs final draft value, but he’s the most talented player left on my board at this point, so I took him. Participating in this draft reminded me that there are about 15 solid prospects and then a significant drop-off after that.
My thoughts: I agree with Tim when it comes to not loving Ellington at this point. I think he was over-drafted in the previous mock at 1.12. His upside is as a 10-12 touch per game back in a committee approach – that probably won’t even put him on the radar as a flex play. I probably would have looked elsewhere based on what I feel is a low ceiling for Ellington, but the NFL draft could change things.
2.07 – Markus Wheaton, WR OR ST
(Pre-Combine 1.12, Post Combine 1.10)
Jarrett’s thoughts: Above averaged speed, can beat the press and can go up and get the ball.  He is capable of playing all three wide receiver positions, which increases his chances of getting on the field early and making an impact.  Highly productive with 91 receptions for 1244 yards and 11 touchdowns and another two touchdowns on the ground last year at Oregon State.
My thoughts: Wheaton’s slide into the middle of the second round is a little puzzling to me. It could have something to do with the natural running back bias that we as fantasy footballers tend to have. As the draft approaches, more backs have been creeping higher and higher in these mock drafts. The result is that several receivers (many of whom I feel are more talented than the backs being taken before them) are sliding a bit. Wheaton has the talent to be a very good complement on a NFL team. Pairing him up across from someone like Andre Johnson could lead to some nice WR2 or WR3 numbers.
2.08 –  Le’Veon Bell, RB MICH ST
(Pre-Combine Undrafted, Post Combine 2.11)
Jeff H’s thoughts: For a bigger back, Bell has uncommon agility. This alone doesn’t equate to success, but does allow him to grade out more highly on my sheet due to agility and athleticism. In the body of a bigger back, he can provide the punishing downhill runner needed in many situations while also possessing nice agility of a smaller back. Bell has the ability to be an every down back in a league consistently now featuring two and three runners per offense. He hasn’t proven that he can be productive against top opponents, but running behind an effective offensive line at the next level can make a world of a difference. I like his size-agility dynamic and in the back half of the second round, he’s too good to pass up.
My thoughts: Jeff and I are on the same page with this one. Bell is squarely inside of my top seven running backs and depending on what happens with the NFL Draft could sneak into my top five slots. He lacks straight line speed, but he has everything else that you could ask for in a running back. When you put all of that into a body that is over 230 pounds you get someone who could surprise at the next level. One of the items that most impresses me about Bell is that he takes great pride in his pass blocking. In an interview I saw he was asked what he enjoys the most about his game and his response was flattening blitzing linebackers because any running back can score touchdowns – I like that toughness in a running back.
2.09 – Stepfan Taylor, RB STAN
(Pre-Combine Undrafted, Post Combine 3.03)
Eric O’s thoughts: The pre-draft process has gone about as bad as possible for Taylor. At 5’9″, 214 pounds, he ran times of 4.7. Often called a “poor man’s Vick Ballard” (which is insulting), he has some Frank Gore-like traits to his game. He can carry the load, catch passes, pass protect and played in a pro-style offense at Stanford. Depending on his landing spot (Cincinnati or Pittsburgh would be ideal), he has the potential to be a fantasy factor.
My thoughts: To say that Taylor hasn’t had the best draft process is like saying that it gets a little warm in Phoenix in July or that Seattle can get a little damp from time to time. Taylor’s last few months have been a disaster. At this point, I will be shocked if he’s anything more than a late round NFL pick. He isn’t explosive, goes down too easily, isn’t quick, isn’t fast and doesn’t seem to have any qualities that make me think he can be anything more than a roster filler in the NFL. I can’t recommend anyone spending anything more than a third round rookie pick on him and even that might be pushing it.
2.10 – Knile Davis, RB ARK
(Pre-Combine Undrafted, Post Combine 1.11)
Jeff B’s thoughts: Size and speed and strength, oh my! Knile Davis is the most impressive physical specimen from among this year’s running back class. Plug this guy in behind a zone blocking scheme and watch him fly. There are some durability concerns (aren’t there always, though?),  but you won’t find anyone else with this type of potential at the end of the second round in your rookie draft. And when I say potential, I really mean like Arian Foster-type potential.
My thoughts: Davis burst onto the scene with one of the more impressive running back combines in recent memory – that led to him being taken in the late first after the combine. Reason has slowly started to win out now as he lands in the late second round. This still might be a touch high for my tastes, but he is worth the gamble. I still think it is more likely he is a workout warrior than  a consistent producer at the NFL level, but the physical skills are definitely there. The injuries, lack of college production (one very good year in 2010, the others were average at best), and ball security issues all need to be weighed into the mix.
2.11 – Zac Stacy, RB VAND
(Pre-Combine Undrafted, Post Combine 3.05)
Chad’s thoughts: Stacy’s a guy I’ve tabbed as a mid-second in rookie drafts. He doesn’t necessarily have the wow factor, but everything he does is solid and NFL ready. Ideally, Stacy will be a middle-late round pick in the NFL draft, going to a team that already has a lead back. If that back should go down, Stacy is more than capable of coming in and filling the void. A nice mix of power and quick, light feet makes Stacy an ideal NFL RB. If you’re not sold on Stacy, there’s an article on rotoviz.com that might sway your opinion.
My thoughts: If I’m a NFL executive, I want someone like Stacy on my team. He is a great leader and about as high character as you will find. Unfortunately, we don’t get fantasy points for any of that. In the NFL, I think Stacy’s role will be that of a short yardage/goal-line bruiser. He didn’t do much in the passing game in college, and he had some injury issues as well. If he can stay healthy, he could be a decent flex play if he lands on a high powered offense like Mikel Leshoure did in 2012.
2.12 – Terrance Williams, WR BAY
(Pre-Combine 2.05, Post Combine 3.02)
Andy’s thoughts: Williams is a down field/bubble screen receiver similar to Mike Wallace as he isn’t as adept running intermediate routes. His run blocking is near the top of his class, so he could be an asset to a run first team that has a strong armed quarterback.
My thoughts: Williams is another receiver who I feel is getting overlooked by the greater fantasy football community and is rather under-valued. Getting him with the last pick in the second is great value. He is one of the best deep ball receivers in this draft. The problem with him is that his experience is all deep down the field or right at the line of scrimmage with screens. He’ll need to learn and perfect a few other routes if he wants to carve out more than a situational role at the next level, but there isn’t any reason to believe that he can’t run other routes.
Stay tuned for the third round of picks tomorrow!
- Final 2021 Pre-Draft Rookie Mock: Round Three - April 28, 2021
- Final 2021 Pre-Draft Rookie Mock: Round Two - April 26, 2021
- Final 2021 Pre-Draft Rookie Mock: Round One - April 25, 2021
