Final Pre-Draft Rookie Mock Draft: Round One

Jacob Feldman

tavon_austin2The NFL Draft is rapidly approaching. The pro days are behind us at this point and the rumors are rapidly swirling about with landing places and reports from NFL teams. It is often known as misinformation season.

In order to help you sift through all of the information out there and get a handle on player values, we bring you another one of our staff rookie only mock drafts. This particular draft features three rounds and was conducted two weeks before the NFL Draft begins. At this point, we have most of the information we are going to receive about the players aside from exactly which team they will be playing for come Fall. Obviously landing spot makes a difference, but this is a good pre-draft view.

For this mock draft, we assumed it was a standard scoring PPR league with normal lineup requirements, meaning no IDP, super flex, or two quarterback leagues. Trades were not allowed. Draft order was randomly assigned and each drafter was asked to make a brief comment about why they made the pick they did. I’ll follow up each pick with some brief thoughts of my own. I’m not a draft expert, and like many of you, my rookie analysis is far from complete. I’m just sharing my thoughts so you get two opinions on each pick. In cases of disagreement, I’ll be the first to admit I might be the one who is wrong.

If you want to take a look at previous mock drafts we have done to get a sense of the risers and fallers, here you go:

Pre-combine: Round 1 and Round 2

Post-combine: Round 1, Round 2 and Round 3

1.01  – Tavon Austin, WR WVU
(Pre-Combine 2.01, Post Combine 1.04)

Dan’s thoughts: Not the position I prefer to take with the 1.01, but Austin’s unquestionably the most talented. I love his play-making ability.

My thoughts: I’ve been waiting for this to happen. Over the last few months, Lacy’s stock has been slowly dropping while Austin’s has been rapidly climbing. I figured it was only a matter of time before someone pulled the trigger. Since our mock was for a PPR league, it gives Austin a nice boost. While I do have some concerns about his size and how he will hold up in the NFL (there aren’t too many 174 pound players in the league), I like his skill set. Unfortunately, I think his upside will be tied to the system that he gets drafted in to. Having high level production from the slot takes either an exceptional talent level (Percy Harvin) or a system that favors it (Wes Welker).

1.02  – Eddie Lacy, RB ALA
(Pre-Combine 1.01, Post Combine 1.01)

Mark’s thoughts: I thought Lacy was the consensus #1 RB in this draft until I saw DLF’s own rankings.  I’m not convinced there is a safe running back in this draft, but I think he comes close.  He has the build to hold up as a lead back and I like his chances of being at least moderately productive.  Regardless of recent reports questioning his conditioning, this pick was a no brainer for me.

My thoughts: I shared a lot of my thoughts on Lacy in a previous article. To sum it all up, I do feel he is the best running back in this draft, but that isn’t saying much. He isn’t a special talent and is much closer to Mark Ingram than he is to Trent Richardson, but he’s still the safest bet for RB2 level production during the 2013 season out of this class.

1.03  – Giovani Bernard, RB UNC
(Pre-Combine 1.02, Post Combine 1.02)

Eric H’s thoughts: After agonizing over which receiver I would select with the third pick (it was going to be Justin Hunter, by the way), imagine my surprise that Bernard fell to me. He’s arguably the best pass-catching back in this draft class (3.7 receptions per game), and flashed game-breaking rushing skills during his collegiate career. Depending on where he winds up (the Bengals are a popularly mocked destination), Bernard could offer low-end RB2 value as a rookie.

My thoughts: I still see Bernard as someone who is going to be a committee back at the next level. I just don’t see the power and toughness in him to be a between the tackles or a short yardage/goal-line kind of player. To me, his upside if is he gets drafted into a committee where the short yardage back isn’t a very dynamic runner, meaning Bernard would get the majority of the touches. Even with that, I’m not sure he will produce dependable RB2 level production. He should be a solid flex play though if he lands on the right team.

1.04  – Cordarrelle Patterson, WR TEN
(Pre-Combine 1.05, Post Combine 1.03)

My thoughts: Most of you probably read our own Doug Veatch’s article on Patterson that was recently posted. He raises some very good points and concerns about Patterson. However, when I look at this draft class as a whole, I don’t really see a whole lot out there that constitutes surefire fantasy starter. In fact, just about everyone in this class has more question marks about them than normal – that means at this point in the draft I’m comfortable taking a bit of a gamble on upside.

If you ask me, when it comes to wide receiver upside, Patterson is top two in this draft along with Da’Rick Rogers. He is more than a little raw when it comes to playing the receiver position, but if he ends up with a coach and maybe a veteran receiver who can help to nurture his ability, we could easily be talking about a guy that could be pushing into top 10 receiver territory with a few years as long as he can learn the pro game.

1.05  – Keenan Allen, WR CAL
(Pre-Combine 1.03, Post Combine 1.05)

Ryan’s thoughts: Allen has really seen his stock fall over the past season. It started with the poor quarterback play he dealt with at Cal and now includes some nagging injuries that have limited his off-season workouts for scouts and coaches. Still, Allen was considered the top rookie for fantasy leagues just a few weeks ago, so falling to the fifth spot is a steal. Even with the excellent value Allen presented at this spot, I did consider DeAndre Hopkins, who eventually went with the next pick. I can see Allen falling this far in many rookie drafts based mostly on his injury concerns, though the sixth or seventh pick is likely his floor.

My thoughts: I agree with a lot of what Ryan said. Allen’s stock definitely is falling, and it wouldn’t surprise me if he slips a little bit further in a few rookie drafts based on the lack of healing in his injured knee as well as reports of a failed drug test at the combine. He injured his knee in the fall and was still experiencing swelling in March. I like his game, and he reminds me a lot of Anquan Boldin with the physical style and great route running, but the injury is a growing concern for me at this point since it should have healed by now.

1.06  – DeAndre Hopkins, WR CLEM
(Pre-Combine 1.07, Post Combine 1.08)

Tim’s thoughts: One of my favorite players in the draft.  He’s not a steal at 1.06, but there aren’t many steals to be had in expert drafts.  I expect him to go in the second round of the NFL Draft and to have immediate success in the NFL.  He’s a safe pick with a high floor, but also a low ceiling.  Projects as a fantasy WR2 once he’s fully up to speed in the NFL.

My thoughts: If you’ve been following the mock drafts, you know I’ve never really seen what others have seen in Hopkins. Maybe it is the low ceiling as Tim points out. He has a good skill set, but isn’t great at anything. I just view him as an average NFL level talent. I view him being a productive number two or maybe number three receiver on an NFL team, but that’s about it. That doesn’t really equate to high level fantasy production unless he lands on a powerhouse offense.

1.07  – Jonathan Franklin, RB UCLA
(Pre-Combine 2.07, Post Combine 2.08)

Jarrett’s thoughts: Agile, has good speed and runs with a nice, low pad level.  He can contribute in the passing game as well as evidenced by his 33 receptions last year.  He isn’t the best at pass protection, but he isn’t horrible either.  Overall, he may be the most complete running back in this draft. He is my RB2 over Giovanni Bernard and a tier one player.

My thoughts: Franklin has been shooting up fantasy draft boards over the last month, so it shouldn’t surprise anyone that Jarrett and many others now consider him to be worthy of a first round pick, though I’m not sure that I fully agree with calling him a tier one player in this draft. He does have a complete skill set, though I think that he might need to add a little bit of bulk if he’s going to be able to power through bigger defenders at the NFL and consistently fall forward. He also has some ball security issues and needs a little refining in several areas. While he isn’t in my top tier of players in this draft it is fair to start to consider him here.

1.08  – Justin Hunter, WR TEN
(Pre-Combine 1.10, Post Combine 1.06)

Jeff H’s thoughts: I think Hunter, along with his teammate Cordarrelle Patterson, has the highest ceiling in this year’s class. I love his long body, catch radius and speed after the catch as well as his natural hand extension as the ball arrives. I heard over the weekend that he’s not a natural hands catcher, but that’s not what I’ve seen on tape. He’s a better route runner than is Patterson and his legitimate 4.4 speed will have to be respected. He’s got some attached risk, but I like raw athleticism in my wide receivers and Hunter has that in spades. If he’s able to increase his catch percentage, I like his chances to be a very productive fantasy player.

My thoughts: I actually like Hunter more than most, so getting him at the 1.08 pick is quite the deal in my mind. I was considering him at 1.04 and Eric said he was thinking about him at 1.03. I think he is one of the more talented as well as safest receivers in this draft. While he doesn’t have quite as high of an upside as Patterson or the skill set of Austin, he could easily end up being the best outside receiver in this draft. He has the total package.

1.09  – Tyler Eifert, TE ND
(Pre-Combine 1.09, Post Combine 1.09)

Eric O’s thoughts: With all the top prospects gone before I picked, I selected Eifert, the tight end out of Notre Dame. In my opinion he was the only player left who had a chance to be considered an elite prospect at his position. Eifert plays an aggressive style of football by attacking passes at their high points and exhibits elite body control by “boxing out” defenders. Even though it is rare and difficult for rookie tight ends to make an immediate impact, Eifert has the chance.

My thoughts: I have Eifert as the clear cut top tight end after the combine. He is a great talent who could be very productive in the right situation. With that being said, I struggle with taking tight ends in the first round because there always seems to be more upside at other positions. I would rather trade the pick for someone already in the league a few years with similar upside than draft a rookie tight end and wait for them to develop since they seem to take longer than any other position. Overall, I think it is a solid pick at this spot, especially if you are someone that likes to play it safe with rookies.

1.10  – Geno Smith, QB WVU
(Pre-Combine 1.04, Post Combine 2.04)

Jeff B’s thoughts: Geno Smith isn’t nearly as polished as Andrew Luck was at this time last year.  He’s not nearly as dynamic as Robert Griffin III was, either. However, he’s got the arm to make every NFL throw, the speed and quickness to make plays with his feet, and most importantly the character to lead a franchise.  That’s more than can be said about Cam Newton who could barely throw a spiral in college.  Geno Smith might not take the league by storm right away like those guys, but if he gets drafted by the right team, I guarantee he’ll be a solid if not spectacular QB1 in fantasy for the next decade.

My thoughts: Smith is definitely Jeff’s guy, because he’s grabbed him in all of our mock drafts so far. I shared the majority of my thoughts on Geno Smith in a recent article. To put it all into a nutshell, he isn’t as much of a rushing quarterback as people like to think he is. He is much more of a pocket passer that only runs if required, much like Aaron Rodgers or Luck. The thing is that while he’s accurate in the pocket, he really struggles then he gets pressured and is very unproven under center. I don’t see him being much more than an average starter in the NFL and definitely not a spectacular QB1.

1.11  – Marcus Lattimore, RB South Carolina
(Pre-Combine 1.08, Post Combine 2.05)

Chad’s thoughts: I was a tad upset Franklin wasn’t available, but I went into this draft targeting Lattimore with this pick and it happened. It’s an ideal situation for him to land on a team drafting around the 1.11 spot assuming you “earned” the pick. It means you probably have a decent running game and can afford to wait a year for Lattimore to get healthy. All reports about his recovery have been encouraging, so there’s no reason to think he won’t contribute either late 2013 or beginning of 2014. I drafted Lattimore with the 2.05 in the last rookie mock and wasn’t going to let him slip past 1.11 in this one.

My thoughts: When it comes to Lattimore, you’re going to be gambling if you’re taking him, and it is tough to pin down the exact place you need to draft him. If you really want him, you’re probably going to need to use a mid-first to ensure you get him. The better question is if you should do that since he has had major injuries to both knees. To me, the question is what will be left when he does come back. Ultimately it comes down to what the doctors of the NFL teams decide since they are the ones that examine him. If he’s drafted in the first three rounds, I have no problem gambling with a late first or early second. If he isn’t taken until day three in the NFL draft, I’m probably going to let someone else take him.

1.12  – Christine Michael, RB Texas A&M
(Pre-Combine Undrafted, Post Combine 2.03)

Andy’s thoughts: Michael is an enigma wrapped in a riddle. While he is an explosive, powerful runner, this back has not played in significantly in more than six games in each year of college football. Michael impressed me at the East/West Shrine Game week, but there are still character concerns (oversleeping at the Combine?) that knock him down my board.

My thoughts: The question for Michael all comes down to why he has had the off the field issues. If he is just immature and will eventually grow up, I want him on my roster. The talent is definitely there. The issue is that it could of course be something more than just immaturity. Whatever the cause is, the issues were a big enough deal that he saw a decrease in playing time during his senior year due to conflicts with his coaches and teammates. There are also lots of injury red flags as well. High risk, high reward.

Stay tuned for the second and third rounds of picks in the next few days!

jacob feldman