Perception vs. Reality: Bryce Brown
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Perception vs. Reality is a semi-regular premium-exclusive series that will focus in on a few players that for one reason or another (at least in the eyes of this writer), seem to have a slightly distorted value or a very wide range for their value in the dynasty community as a whole. The goal of this series will be to ignore the common perceptions that might be either too generous or much too harsh based on the name value of the player, the media coverage, or any other number of reasons.
This is not intended to be a buy or sell series, since some of these players will have owners that are extremely high on them, making them impossible to buy at decent value, while others will have owners that are extremely low on them. Instead, this is a series that will hopefully make you channel your inner Dennis Green and make sure that players “are who we thought they were.”
The previous installments can be found below:
It wasn’t that long ago that very few people had Bryce Brown’s name on their radar in terms of NFL production, and those who did either remembered him being a top college recruit or were just trying to sift through the mess that was the Eagles’ backfield in hopes of picking the proper handcuff between him, Chris Polk and Dion Lewis. Then LeSean McCoy suffered a concussion and someone else had to step up. Brown answered the call and made everyone notice, both in the fantasy world and elsewhere. The question is what kind of role and value does Brown have while McCoy is healthy? He’s currently (according to our ADP data) being drafted in the ninth or tenth round as the 38th running back off the board – that puts him just outside of the RB3 range of players and firmly on the radar as a flex play. Let’s take a look and see what we can figure out about Mr. Brown.
History
When you talk about someone being a stud football player in high school, it is tough to find a better poster child than Bryce Brown. By the time he finished his sophomore season, he had already totaled 3,511 yards on the ground and 38 rushing touchdowns. He also had more than 50 scholarship offers from division one programs by the end of his sophomore season and was selected as the EA Sports National Sophomore of the Year. His Junior and Senior seasons were equally impressive as he rushed for over 1,800 yards per season on just over 200 carries each year. He was also a two time selection to the USA Today All-American team. Needless to say, he was the top high school recruit, not just at his position but in all of football that year.
Unfortunately for Brown, this is where things starting to go downhill rather quickly.
Brown hired a “trainer and handler” that would deal with all of his media requests, film requests and workouts. Brown’s representative started to charge schools and media outlets for information and videos which triggered a NCAA investigation into if Brown would even be eligible before he had even picked a college.
In late February of that year, Brown verbally committed to the University of Miami and there was much rejoicing. However, it was very short lived as Brown later decided to create a Lebron James type of press conference decision (even though it was before the James “The Decision”). He amended his verbal commitment to say there were five finalists that he was considering and University of Miami was one of them – this didn’t sit very well with the University of Miami and they pulled their scholarship offer. Brown ended up deciding to attend the University of Tennessee.
Brown’s talent was enough to make him an active member of the team during his true Freshman season, but he acted as the backup to Montario Hardesty. He rushed 101 times on the season for 460 yards and three touchdowns. After his Freshman year, it appeared Brown had a clear path to being the starter since Hardesty had graduated. That is when his head coach, Lane Kiffin, left for USC. Brown then announced that he would be leaving Tennessee to go to Kansas State since his brother was also going to be transferring there.
Due to the transfer, Brown was forced to sit out the entire 2010 season. When the 2011 season rolled around, everyone expected Brown to finally make good on all of his physical talent and blow everyone away. However, due to some internal team issues, Brown received only three carries in the opener then didn’t touch the football in the next two games, after which he announced that he was leaving the team.
At that point, Brown had been out of high school for three years, which allowed him to declare for the NFL Draft. In three years after high school, he went from being the top high school prospect in the entire nation to quitting on two division one programs (three if you count Miami) and being involved in not one, but two separate NCAA investigations since he was linked to infamous Miami booster Nevin Shapiro. In his three years since high school, he had totaled a modest 104 college carries for 476 yards. He ended up being a seventh round pick of the Eagles in the 2012 draft and most of us know the story from there.
Talking Points
1) “He had one of the best two game stretches of any RB last season.”
This is definitely true. His 43 carries during weeks 12 and 13 went for 347 yards and four touchdowns. He also chipped in eight catches for 25 yards to help many fantasy teams make the playoffs. There are a few things that people definitely tend to have selective memories on, though. Brown started four games, not two. In the other two games he started, he had a total of 28 carries for 40 yards, good for 1.4 yards per carry. When you consider he had one carry for 11 yards and another for nine yards in those 28, it makes even Chris Johnson’s start to the 2012 season look good. When you toss in the three lost fumbles during his four games as a starter, it doesn’t quite look as good as people remember.
2) “He could be a big part of a committee this year.”
Let me start out by saying McCoy is one of the most talented running backs in the league and he just signed a big contract. He is the starter no matter how you look at it – that means the question is what kind of small role will Brown have? Over the last two games of the season when McCoy was healthy, Brown received 13 touches compared to 37 for McCoy, even though the Eagles were “easing McCoy back” – that’s a 26% share for Brown. Given that Brown’s productivity over those two games was just three yards per carry, it doesn’t exactly scream for him to get a whole lot more work than he did.
3) “With Chip Kelly coming in, both McCoy and Brown will be on the field and be fantasy worthy at the same time.”
We have all seen reports this might happen. A new coach (especially one that hasn’t ever been a head coach at the NFL level) definitely adds some uncertainty to the mix. However, if you look back at what Kelly did over the last few years, you see this kind of break down for carries between his top running back and the number two player:
2012 – 278 vs 92
2011 – 247 vs 152 (His top back missed two games in which the second one had 41 carries)
2010 – 294 vs 91
While Kelly might put them both on the field, he has shown he goes with his top player about 75% of the time when both backs are healthy, which is almost exactly what the Eagles did during weeks 16 and 17 last season after Brown “broke out” and McCoy was healthy.
Author’s side note: I’m in the process of working on more analysis like this of Chip Kelly’s trends in using offensive players to help us figure out what we can expect from the Eagles players this year.
4) “Brown will at least be a RB1 should McCoy get hurt again, making him a top handcuff.”
I’m not buying it.
Go ask the teams that were hoping to ride Brown to the fantasy championship last season how that worked out for them. He was the starter weeks 14 and 15 and didn’t manage to top ten total points during those two weeks in even the most generous of PPR scoring. Instead, he showed an alarming tendency to try to push everything outside while looking for the big play by outrunning everyone else – that worked in high school, but once NFL teams figured out his style, he really struggled. I don’t even know if you could count on him to be a decent flex play should McCoy go down.
5) “He’ll just be turning 22 this Spring, what about down the road?”
He’s signed with the Eagles through the 2015 season, which is less time than McCoy is signed with them – that means he likely needs a new team if he’s going to get a shot to be more than just a backup. I don’t see the Eagles trading him given how cheap his contract is for them. That means he’s likely there for the whole thing. Though given his past character concerns, it is possible that he might work his way out of Philly before then – that raises a whole new issue in how likely is it that someone else will give him another chance? Often teams will take a shot if the talent is there, but not always. Just go ask Titus Young how things are working out for him.
Bottom Line
In my opinion, Brown definitely has some physical talent. However, he is extremely raw (which is to be expected given his lack of college ball) and lacks some of the other key elements that are required to be a successful player in the NFL. On top of that, his lack of ball security and tendency to rush to the edge are big red flags for his chances of winning a major role unless he can fix these issues. With his past bringing up some major questions about his work ethic and his ability to stick with something when things aren’t going his way (such as not starting) I’m not overly optimistic of him being able (or perhaps willing) to work on these issues.
Overall, his season last year, or should I say his two games last year just scream flash in the pan and reminds me a bit of Ron Dayne’s few weeks in December of 2006. Brown being taken in the ninth or tenth round of startups seems to be several rounds too high to me, even for those of you that are McCoy owners. I would much prefer to have some of the other guys around the same ADP like Ahmad Bradshaw and Rashard Mendenhall as my RB3/flex play or to take a shot on someone like Kendall Hunter a few rounds later. In my eyes, Brown is just too overhyped right now to get him at a proper price and people are only remembering what they want to remember. In my eyes, he’s probably better off on someone else’s roster at this point in time.
- Final 2021 Pre-Draft Rookie Mock: Round Three - April 28, 2021
- Final 2021 Pre-Draft Rookie Mock: Round Two - April 26, 2021
- Final 2021 Pre-Draft Rookie Mock: Round One - April 25, 2021
