Dynasty Stock Market: Late Round Gems

Ryan McDowell Posted On April 7, 2013

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In less than three weeks, one of the highlights of a football fan’s year will be upon us, the NFL draft. While that is an exciting time for fans who hope the trajectory of their favorite team is positively impacted for years to comes, it is just as exciting for dynasty fantasy football players, who are on the verge of crafting their own teams.

Soon after the conclusion of NFL Draft at the end of this month, dynasty start-up drafts will begin. Owners will have many important decisions to make that will have a lasting impact on their teams and the success they hope to achieve. Most owners enter the draft with a solid plan for the early rounds. Some prefer to target youth and build for the future, while others grab the chance to put together a nucleus of high scoring veterans and go for a title in year one. Regardless of the plan, there always is one in place early on.

Often though, championship teams can be built with late round steals and value plays found near the conclusion of a start-up draft. Many owners take these rounds for granted, figuring these players have no hope of attaining value or playing a role on their team – this is a dangerous assumption and one that can cost a team a championship.

This week, I wanted to highlight a few players who will likely be available at the end of your draft that could have an positive impact on your team, either this season, or in the future. Also, depending on the current standing of your team, these players could make good trade targets in existing leagues.

For the purpose of this article, I am consulting the DLF ADP data from March, focusing only on players drafted in the eighteenth round or later, giving them an ADP of 205 and beyond. Also, I have not included any rookies, based on the assumption that their ADP could be greatly affected by the outcome of the NFL draft later this month.

Dustin Keller, TE MIA
ADP- 214

Tight end Dustin Keller has moved on to the Miami Dolphins this off-season after five years with the New York Jets. Keller missed much of the 2012 season, which was a disaster for the Jets all around. It was the first time Keller has missed any games as a professional and easily the worst season of his career. Keller has two top ten tight end fantasy seasons under his belt and now moves to a new team where targets should be plentiful for the 28-year old former Boilermaker. In his two best seasons (2010 and 2011), Keller amassed over 100 targets in each season. Although new wide receiver Mike Wallace will certainly be the focal point of the passing game, he is not a player that always sees a high number of targets. The Dolphins running game is also shaky with former starter Reggie Bush now in Detroit, so red zone targets could add up for Keller. If you miss on the top tight ends, Keller could be a good late option and don’t be surprised to see him with another top twelve finish among tight ends.

Darrius Heyward-Bey, WR IND
ADP- 218

Another player with a new home and new team is former Raider wide receiver Darrius Heyward-Bey. Heyward-Bey has been viewed as a bust after being drafted in the top ten by the Raiders in 2009. The main issue though, as I see it, is the Raiders never paired Heyward-Bey with a quarterback who fit his strengths, namely his blazing speed. That is, until the team traded for veteran Carson Palmer in the middle of the 2011 season. Palmer had the big arm that could work well with Heyward-Bey’s strengths and during weeks nine through seventeen with Palmer under center, Heyward-Bey finished as the WR24 in PPR leagues. While this is not amazing production, he did post low-end WR2 numbers. The 2012 season was another story as the Raiders brought in rookie wide receivers that meshed well with Palmer and Heyward-Bey dealt with nagging injuries. That, along with his high salary due in 2013, led to his eventual release. He has now signed with the Colts and looks primed to take over the WR3 spot behind Reggie Wayne and TY Hilton and will benefit from the strong arm of young starting quarterback Andrew Luck. Last season, Donnie Avery held that role and all he did was post career high numbers of sixty catches and 781 receiving yards to go along with three touchdowns. Don’t be surprised to see his ADP on the move as this data was collected before he signed with the Colts.

Ladarius Green, TE SD
ADP- 223

Chargers second year tight end Ladarius Green is another player in the mold of Jimmy Graham and, ironically, Antonio Gates. When Gates went from the basketball court at Kent State to the gridiron in San Diego, he immediately made an impact and the rest of the league began their search for players just like him. Many have come since, but have yet to live up to the Chargers great. After ten top seasons, Gates is beginning to slow down and the Chargers have added a player they hope can step right in and fill his big shoes. At 6’6”, Green is a big target for quarterback Philip Rivers, though he saw little action in his rookie season. Expect Green to be worked into the offense more in 2013 and possibly take over the starting role by the next season. In dynasty leagues, he is a player to acquire and stash at the end of your bench for the future. His role for your dynasty team should be a third tight end, but one who can eventually become a starting level player.

Ryan Mallet, QB NE
ADP- 225

One player who I have been a big fan of since his days at the University of Arkansas is big armed quarterback Ryan Mallet. Mallet was once though of as a top NFL prospect, but off the field concerns and a solid quarterback class in 2011 pushed Mallet out of the first round. At that point, it surprised no one. The team that eventually took a shot on him was a surprise. The New England Patriots made Mallet their third round selection, even though they already had a player many viewed as a capable backup in Brian Hoyer. Although Hoyer stuck around for the 2011 season, he was eventually released, making Mallet the clear backup behind future Hall of Fame signal caller Tom Brady.

If you Google “Ryan Mallet,” the first two suggestions tells you all you need to know about his dynasty value. The first result is “Ryan Mallet drugs.” As I mentioned, Mallet had off the field concerns in college and there was some reports regarding drug use that greatly affected his draft stock, and therefore his dynasty value. Many owners, both in the NFL and in fantasy leagues, avoided Mallet for these reasons. During his two seasons with the Patriots, there have been no sign of this type of behavior. The next result is “Ryan Mallet trade” – this is the one really driving his value as we speak. There have been multiple rumors that Mallet would be dealt, landing in a spot where he would be handed the starting job. With all of his potential, this excites dynasty owners. The problem is the trade may not happen. Mallet’s prime suitor has reportedly been the Cleveland Browns. However, the Browns recently signed veteran Jason Campbell and although I don’t think any team would let a player like Campbell sway them from acquiring a quarterback they believe in, it’s a bad sign for a possible trade. While we wait, Mallet is another player who is perfect to stash on your deep dynasty bench. In our dynasty mocks, he even has a higher ADP than many current starters around the NFL like Christian Ponder, Carson Palmer and whoever might be starting for the Jets.

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Ryan McDowell

Contributor at Dynasty League Football

In addition to his senior leadership role here at DLF, Ryan is also a husband, father of three and PE teacher. Ryan is the commissioner of multiple dynasty leagues, most notably the Kitchen Sink Dynasty Leagues. Here at DLF, Ryan’s focus is on identifying, monitoring and analyzing player value.