The DLF Mailbag

Eric Hardter

tony_gonzalez

Welcome to the latest edition of the weekly mailbag.

Send me your questions using the DLF Mailbag Form and I’ll include the best in future articles.  Remember the guidelines to have the best chance at seeing your question get posted:

1.) Dynasty questions only, no start/sit questions

2.) Help me help you by providing sufficient information about your league (e.g. line-up requirements/PPR or non-PPR/etc.), and include your first name and where you’re from.

3.) Your chance of getting your question answered is inversely proportional to the length of the question.

Let’s get to it!

1.) I recently acquired Tony Gonzalez to help make a run at a title this year, but am also looking at next year and beyond when Gonzo retires.  I’m looking squarely at the rookie tight ends with my picks this year but was curious to know who you like better as a long-term prospect – Adrien Robinson from the Giants or Ladarius Green of the Chargers?Jordan in Vancouver

Truthfully, I’m surprised you omitted arguably the best available option at the position:  Dante Rosario.  While Robinson and Green are talented young options, Rosario is a known commodity.  And what we know, frankly, is spectacular, including the ability to catch three touchdowns in a single game.  Though he’s still a free agent, rumblings in the NFL scouting community suggest this is only due to persistent, clandestine bidding wars for Rosario’s services.  I suppose ultimately, the highest praise I can bestow upon Rosario is…April Fools!

Now that I’m done being “that guy,” let’s get back to the original question.  There are several factors to take into account here.  Both are stuck in similar situations, with Green backing up declining future Hall of Famer Antonio Gates and Robinson likely to languish behind a “beautiful overweight gazelle” in Brandon Myers (thanks for the nickname, Mark), who was recently signed to a one-year deal.  Each carries a similar ADP as well, as they’re both considered late round lottery tickets in the nineteenth and twentieth rounds respectively.

Where Green begins to separate himself is with natural physical ability.  Measuring in at 6’6” and 238 pounds, he blistered the NFL combine track with a 4.45 second 40-yard dash.  Robinson, a bit larger at 6’5” and 264 pounds, ran 40-yard dash times of 4.51 and 4.58 seconds at his University of Cincinnati pro day.  While those times are excellent, it’s common practice to tack on an extra tenth of a second to pro day times, and Robinson didn’t perform any drills at the combine.

Green also possesses a much more robust collegiate resume.  During his four years at Louisiana-Lafayette, he caught 148 passes for 2,202 yards (14.2 yards per catch), also recording 22 touchdowns.  Conversely, Robinson only caught 29 passes total in the course of his time as a Bearcat.  Though the former Big East is universally recognized as a tougher conference than the Sun Belt, that’s still a striking differential.

To me, the biggest point in Robinson’s favor is that he was selected by a general manager we trust.  The Giants’ Jerry Reese has a proven track record of drafting quality skill position players, so it’s telling he was willing to spend a fourth-round pick on Robinson, then bestow upon him the moniker of the “Jason Pierre-Paul of tight ends.”  Drafted by the recently deposed AJ Smith, Green doesn’t have that same luxury, and the 2012 third-rounder is now forced to impress a brand new front office and coaching staff.  Even despite that, Green’s physical attributes and prior production combine to better fit the new mold of “joker/move” tight end, and he’s my choice for your potential future starter.

2.) Is Peyton Hillis still worth stashing on my bench as a RB4 when guys like Travaris Cadet and Roy Helu are still on the waiver wire?Eric in PA

The short answer to this question is a resounding “No!”  However, I’m answering emails, not telegraphs, so allow me to expand upon that statement.  Ultimately, my opinion boils down to what I perceive to be Hillis’ lack of potential.

Yes, there was that magical 2010 season in Cleveland that saw the former waiver-wire darling compile 1,654 total yards and 13 touchdowns.  Unfortunately, it appears that a bruising running style combined with an unexpectedly heavy workload led to Hillis’ fall from grace.  In the past two years, the Madden cover boy has sported a cumulative yards-per-carry average of 3.6, while also missing nine games.  He was last seen functioning as Jamaal Charles’ caddy in Kansas City, and has yet to be signed by a new team.  Where’s the upside?

The type of potential you’re looking for resides in roster “worms” such as Helu and Cadet (and if that reference eludes you, you’re missing out).  Helu led the Redskins in rushing during the 2011 season and also chipped in 49 receptions out of the backfield.  Cadet, meanwhile, displayed a Darren Sproles-esque type of skillset during the Saints’ 2012 preseason.  His 3.39 yards-per-carry average needs improvement, but the 6’0”, 210-pound rookie also recorded 30 receptions, and even returned kickoffs and punts.

Still, I’ll give the slight edge to Helu.  Though he’s firmly buried behind Alfred Morris on Washington’s depth chart, he’s only an injury away from meaningful playing time in quarterback Robert Griffin III’s explosive offense.  Cadet, on the other hand, is stuck in what is inarguably the league’s most cluttered and frustrating backfield.  He only received six touches in the 2012 regular season, and will be forced to contend with Sproles, Mark Ingram, Chris Ivory and Pierre Thomas for playing time next year.  Regardless of which player you prefer, the end of your bench should always contain more upside than what Hillis can provide.

3.) I’ve been offered LeSean McCoy and Lamar Miller for Arian Foster and Ben Tate.  What do you think about this trade and do you have any long-term concerns for McCoy, especially regarding concussions?David in MD

Truthfully, I don’t like this at all for you…I love it!  I believe this deal is a prime example of peak trading in the metaphorical stock market that is dynasty fantasy football.  Furthermore, this type of asset management becomes especially critical whenever the transiently natured running back position is involved.

Before we continue, in the interest of honesty it should be mentioned that I do hold the title of DLF’s resident Foster hater.  I believe his 2012 workload, which constituted 405 carries and 55 receptions including playoffs, will affect his game in a detrimental manner.  He still holds value as long as he receives goal-line work, but I think the days of him leading the league in combined yardage are a thing of the past.  So considering the optimal time to sell Foster may already be in the rear-view mirror, you’re receiving a hypothetically great haul.

McCoy remains one of dynasty’s most coveted assets due to the combination of his age and ability.  Despite only being 24 years old, McCoy already has three seasons of over 1,000 total yards under his belt, and averages over 50 receptions per year.  While his concussion history is of some concern, McCoy doesn’t generally exhibit the type of smash-mouth running style that opens him up to big hits.

As it turns out, the biggest coup in this deal could be your acquisition of Miller.  Even though he’s proven next to nothing at the pro level, Miller sports a ridiculous ADP of 42.3, as the RB18 – that’s a mid fourth round pick for a player who has 51 career carries to his name.  If you wind up making this trade, you should be able to flip Miller for a receiver like Vincent Jackson or Justin Blackmon, or a quarterback like Colin Kaepernick, tipping the scales even further in your favor.

4.) I’m in a very deep 32-team league with duplicate players. I have decent receiver depth, but there is no such thing as too much depth in a deep league where you have to start four receivers. I am getting lots of offers for Calvin Johnson, with the latest being Larry Fitzgerald and Stevie Johnson for Calvin straight up.  Should I pull the trigger or hold on to my stud?Bryan in FL

A 32-team league with duplicate players is essentially the same as having two sixteen-team leagues.  Therefore, if each team needs to start four receivers, that means on any given week a minimum of 64 pass catchers are vying for theoretical fantasy production.  For that reason, I think you should hang onto Megatron.

There are precious few players who can afford you the luxury of deviational production above the mean, and Calvin Johnson is one of those guys.  Over the past two years, Johnson has scored, on average, 1.2 points per game over the average of the WR2.  When compared to the WR5, that number jumps to 2.8 points per game.  In other words, Calvin is the ultimate positional advantage.

Next, let’s speak to the depth of the position.  The average weekly differential between the WR32 (the low-end of the WR2 spectrum) and the WR64 (the last “startable” receiver) in 2012 was 4.0 points per game.  Amazingly, dropping those 32 spots only yields results 1.4 times better than what Johnson brings over the fifth best wide fantasy wide receiver.

The point I’m getting to is that if you can couple Megatron’s production with that of a reasonable WR2, it almost doesn’t matter who your next two receivers are.  In a deep league, the name of the game is having as many studs as you can.  So if you’re going to lose that type of peace of mind, I’d want a lot more than Larry Fitzgerald and Stevie Johnson in return.

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eric hardter