2013 Rookie Linebacker Ratios

Steve Wyremski

alonzo_highsmithWhen trying to determine who the next breakout rookie is or who to target in rookie drafts, fantasy owners often rely on one or two bases – quantitative/statistics or qualitative/scouting. I happen to believe both are essential. Focusing on one factor often results in oversights and missed opportunities and, therefore, both factors must be considered.

Each year I look into two ratios used by several NFL front offices to assess whether defensive lineman and linebackers have the ability to succeed in the NFL. I do this for two reasons – I want to identify/affirm my sleepers and I also want to assess whether I am off on any of my initial qualitative rankings.

Here I’ll focus on the linebacker results.

Ratio Background

In Take Your Eye Off the Ball, Pat Kirwan explains two statistics used to determine if a front-seven defensive player is a playmaker or explosive enough to succeed at the professional level. These calculations are based on college production and NFL combine/pro day results. They are called the “explosion number” and the “productivity ratio.”

The explosion number is calculated as “Bench Press Reps + Vertical Jump + Broad Jump.”

A player with a total of 70 plus garners attention since he possesses the explosiveness to win battles at the line of scrimmage. The explosion number isn’t the only condition to consider. Some players have an explosion factor below 70 and become a Pro Bowler. Terrell Suggs is a perfect example. That success despite the low number is explained by Kirwan’s productivity ratio. This is calculated as “Sacks + Tackles for Loss or “TFL” / Number of Games Played.” This ratio shows how often a defender plays behind the line of scrimmage and exemplifies playmaker tendencies. The targets here are players with ratios greater than 1.0.

I acknowledge there is no certainty with these ratios. Like anything, if a player hits one, both, or none, there are no guarantees. However, as you will see in the historical ratios below, frequently individuals who breach the target explosion and productivity ratios have successful careers. There is someone like Vernon Gholston who appeared to be a sure-fire stud based on these numbers, but there are always exceptions. These ratios are not to be considered the only data point, but one of the many to analyze in ranking rookie IDPs.

Historical Ratios

The following includes a number players drafted in the past few seasons who appear to be busts after being selected early in the NFL draft or who have performed extremely well:

Productivity Number

table1

Explosion Number

table2

Summary Findings

  • Several players like DeMarcus Ware, Justin Tuck, Lamarr Woodley, JJ Watt, and Brian Orakpo performed well in both instances and all have had or have started successful NFL careers.
  • Desmond Bishop was not drafted until the sixth round in the 2007 draft, but he breached both ratios. He is now a top five dynasty linebacker.
  • Cameron Wake, who played in the Canadian Football League before making it to the NFL, also produced solid ratios.
  • Vernon Gholston is a clear bust despite having some of the highest ratios in both instances.
  • Players like Jason Pierre-Paul, Terrell Suggs, and Trent Cole (who are dominant defensive ends) hit the target in the productivity ratio, but did not work out well, which is evident in their low explosion numbers.
  • Inside linebackers (many who are not even included here intentionally like James Laurinaitis) may not hit these thresholds because of their style of play. These ratios seem to gloss over that aspect of the front seven and must be considered when assessing and ranking rookies.

The most important result from the above is that the players who reach the target ratios in both cases appear to have a greater chance at a success. As a result, that will be the target in assessing the 2013 draft class linebackers to better focus on potential sleepers and draft targets below.

2012 Backtest

First, let’s take a look back at the 2012 draft class results, see who was tagged as linebackers who hit both ratios, and analyze the accuracy:

Luke Kuechly, MLB CAR

Kuechly performed quite well in his rookie year and finished among the top five IDP linebackers in 2012. He’s now considered a top five dynasty linebacker. This is a solid hit.

Mychal Kendricks, ILB, PHI

Kendricks started in each of the Eagles’ games in 2012 at the strong side linebacker position. For IDP purposes, he finished in the top 60 among linebackers. That’s largely due to the position that he played and the limited tackle opportunities he was presented with on the strongside. In the Eagles’ new projected 3-4 base scheme, Kendricks will move to the inside linebacker position. The 2013 season should be a better test of whether this was a successful predictor for IDP purposes. From an NFL perspective, his rookie season was viewed as a success as he assumed the every down linebacker position early on the season, held it through the end of the season, and produced as expected of his position. We can call this a wait-and-see despite the NFL success.

Miles Burris, WLB, OAK

Burris was often undrafted in rookie drafts or left until the later rounds. However, he ended up starting for the Raiders from week six through the end of the season at weakside linebacker. He finished in the top 45 linebackers over that period. Given he was an afterthought and ended up starting through the end of the season and produced, this is a hit. He’s projected to maintain his starting spot in 2013 on the weakside or in the middle.

Nick Perry, OLB, GB

Perry started immediately for five games before being injured in week six and missing the remainder of the season. He exhibited the ability to get to the quarterback and played meaningful snaps early on, but given the small sample of data, this is another one that should be deferred until 2013.

Melvin Ingram, OLB, SD

Ingram played sparingly in 2012. No success yet, but he’s projected to start in 2013 making him a viable option in big play leagues. We’ll wait on Ingram, as well, until he has meaningful snaps under his belt.

James-Michael Johnson, ILB, CLE

JMJ was injured much of 2012. The decision here is deferred until 2013, as well.

On the flipside, Zach Brown of the Titans missed on both ratios. He dominated in his rookie year and finished in the top 30 among linebackers in most leagues. This is a prime example of where this quantitative analysis missed. With that said, it appears to have identified some strong candidates as discussed above.

2013 NFL Draft Class – Linebackers

Note: The bolded players below hit the target for both productivity and explosion numbers.

Player Position College

Ratio

Vertical

Broad

Bench

Total

Alonso, Kiko

ILB / OLB

Oregon

0.98

30.4

9.8

DNP

40.2

Barrington, Sam

ILB

South Florida

0.57

32.4

9.8

22.0

64.2

Beauharnais, Steve

ILB

Rutgers

0.91

33.0

9.8

19.0

61.8

Borland, Chris

ILB

Wisconsin

1.27

DNP

DNP

DNP

0.0

Bostic, Jonathan

ILB

Florida

0.68

32.4

9.8

22.0

64.3

Brown, Arthur

ILB / OLB

Kansas St

0.75

32.5

9.7

21.0

63.2

Brown, Jonathan

OLB

Illinois

1.23

DNP

DNP

DNP

0.0

Buchanan, Ramon

OLB

Miami

0.44

DNP

DNP

DNP

0.0

Collins, Jamie

OLB

Southern Miss

1.56

41.4

11.6

19.0

72.0

Gooden, Zaviar

OLB

Missouri

0.60

34.0

10.9

27.0

71.9

Greene, Khaseem

OLB

Rutgers

1.00

30.0

9.7

17.0

56.7

Hepburn, Brandon

ILB

Florida A&M

0.47

32.0

10.4

21.0

63.4

Highsmith, Alonzo

OLB

Arkansas

1.21

DNP

DNP

DNP

0.0

Hodges, Gerald

OLB

Penn St

0.96

35.4

9.9

22.0

67.3

Holloman, DeVonte

OLB/SS

South Carolina

0.33

33.0

9.4

15.0

57.4

Jenkins, Brandon

OLB/DE

Florida St

1.50

DNP

DNP

18.0

18.0

Jenkins, Jelani

OLB

Florida

0.61

35.5

9.3

27.0

71.8

Johnson, Nico

ILB

Alabama

0.34

29.0

9.2

DNP

38.2

Johnson, Travis

OLB

San Jose St

2.01

DNP

DNP

DNP

0.0

Jones, Jarvis

OLB

Georgia

2.77

30.5

9.3

20.0

59.8

Jordan, Dion

OLB/DE

Oregon

1.12

32.4

10.2

DNP

42.6

Klein, A.J.

OLB/ILB

Iowa St

0.58

DNP

9.4

20.0

29.4

Knott, Jake

OLB

Iowa St

0.40

DNP

DNP

DNP

0.0

Long, Travis

OLB

Washington St

1.27

DNP

DNP

DNP

0.0

Lotulelei, John

OLB

UNLV

0.18

35.4

9.8

25.0

70.2

Magee, Brandon

OLB

Arizona St

0.96

DNP

9.5

DNP

9.5

Mauti, Michael

ILB

Penn St

0.65

DNP

DNP

28.0

28.0

McCray, Lerentee

OLB

Florida

0.55

DNP

DNP

DNP

0.0

Minter, Kevin

ILB

LSU

0.87

33.0

9.9

25.0

67.9

Moore, Sio

ILB/OLB

Connecticut

1.45

38.0

10.6

29.0

77.6

Moody, Nick

OLB

Florida St

0.17

DNP

9.8

17.0

26.8

Norman, Chris

OLB

Michigan St

0.30

DNP

DNP

DNP

0.0

Ogletree, Alec

ILB

Georgia

1.39

33.4

10.2

20.0

63.6

Ogletree, Brandon

ILB

BYU

0.62

DNP

DNP

DNP

0.0

Porter, Sean

OLB

Texas A&M

0.96

35.0

9.9

22.0

66.9

Pough, Keith

OLB

Howard

2.02

33.0

9.8

17.0

59.8

Reddick, Kevin

ILB

North Carolina

0.89

DNP

9.4

23.0

32.4

Sabino, Etienne

OLB

Ohio St

0.45

34.0

9.5

24.0

67.5

Stewart, Jonathan

ILB

Texas A&M

0.52

31.0

9.8

19.0

59.8

Tate, Kenny

OLB

Maryland

0.81

DNP

DNP

DNP

0.0

Taylor, Bruce

ILB

Virginia Tech

1.28

30.4

9.6

19.0

59.0

Taylor, Mike

OLB

Wisconsin

0.97

DNP

DNP

DNP

0.0

Te’o Manti

ILB

Notre Dame

0.81

33.0

9.4

0.0

42.4

Thomas, Chase

OLB

Stanford

1.47

32.0

9.4

18.0

59.4

Wort, Tom

ILB

Oklahoma

0.74

31.4

9.3

21.0

61.7

Washington, Cornelius

OLB

Georgia

0.52

39.0

10.7

36.0

85.7

DNP: Did not participate in drill either at combine or at pro day. Some pro days are still to come, but unlikely to impact results.

Summary Findings

While the draft is still a month away and schemes will impact ultimate IDP value and targets, here are some findings and players to keep an eye on:

Kiko Alonso

Alonso comes with off the field issues. Now, add to that that he hasn’t hit either target number above. He didn’t bench at his pro day or at the combine, but he’s unlikely to put up 30 reps or more to push him over the 70 threshold. Additionally, he missed the productivity threshold despite a dynamite 2012 season with the Ducks. Alonso was a favorite sleeper of mine headed into the draft given his non-stop motor, but the results have me a bit wary and I am now considering not to actively target him in rookie drafts.

Arthur Brown

Brown played middle linebacker for Kansas State for two years after transferring from Miami. Brown is likely to be selected in the first round of April’s draft and could play either the weakside or middle linebacker spots in a 4-3 defense, or the inside linebacker spot in a 3-4 defense. As seen above, Brown didn’t hit either of the ratios, which on its face is concerning. However, as I discussed early on, inside linebackers often don’t breach the productivity ratio since they may not blitz as often as other positions. He also played in a conservative scheme. Given that Brown played the middle linebacker spot in college in a conservative defense scheme, I’m not going to hold the ratio against him come draft time. He looks tremendous on tape despite being a bit undersized.

Jamie Collins

Collins is currently projected as a second round pick, but a fantastic combine continue to propel his draft stock. Collins hit on both ratios, but unfortunately may be destined to be a 3-4 outside linebacker which would limit his IDP production and upside. Given his athleticism and ability to cover ground in pass coverage, it’s possible he would play the strongside in a 4-3 defense or the defensive end spot in a 4-3. The great thing about Collins is that he has the ability to play in multiple schemes. Keep an eye on which scheme Collins lands in; his ceiling may be limited but the numbers point to a playmaker.

Khaseem Greene

Another undersized athletic linebacker pegged for the first round, Greene has the ability to be an every down linebacker given his speed and career history playing safety. The concern is that he often needs space and to be free of offensive lineman to excel. His explosive factor missed by quite a bit which is concerning, but the productivity factor is there so no change in my ranking of Greene.

Alonzo Highsmith

After missing 2012 due to a foot injury, Highsmith is projected to be drafted in the later rounds in the 2013 draft or be signed as an undrafted free agent. Unfortunately, he didn’t participate at the combine or Arkansas’ pro day, so the explosion factor cannot be analyzed. However, his productivity ratio is positive and, as a result, he deserves to be watched to see what scheme he lands in.

Gerald Hodges

Hodges is best suited to play the outside linebacker spot in a 4-3 scheme. Depending on which position, his IDP production could be capped. He barely missed hitting the target for both ratios, which is intriguing. If he ends up on a 4-3 team to play the weakside or 3-4 defense to play inside, he’ll be an interesting prospect to consider given how close his numbers are to the targets. He’s currently projected as a fourth or fifth rounder in the draft next month and has the potential to be an every down linebacker. Watch this guy.

Travis Johnson

He’s best suited to play 3-4 outside linebacker since he’s too undersized to stick as a 4-3 defensive end. However, Johnson’s productivity ratio was off the charts, which makes him a nice target in big-play leagues or if he’s drafted as a 4-3 end as situational pass-rusher.

Jarvis Jones

His productivity numbers are stellar, but his explosion numbers are awful. Simply put, his pro day numbers were very disappointing and he showed no explosiveness in any drill. Even if he were to become dominant, he’s certain to be drafted to a 3-4 defense to play outside linebacker, which will likely cap his upside as a LB2 in balanced leagues. Many are suggesting that he’ll follow a similar path to Terrell Suggs who also struggled in his workout, as well, but was ultimately dominant. Because he hit one ratio, the numbers above don’t seem to assist in any determination and there’s no change in his value.

Dion Jordan

Like Jones, Jordan may be destined to be a 3-4 outside linebacker. Given the pass coverage ability he exuded at Oregon, I’m holding out hope that he’s drafted as a strongside linebacker who puts his hand in the dirt in passing situations much like Von Miller. I’ll admit that it’s an unlikely scenario at this point. However, he appears likely to miss on the explosion ratio since it’s rare that a linebacker puts up 28 or more reps on the bench (which he did not participate in). As a result and like Jones, there’s nothing terribly positive or negative here on Jordan.

Kevin Minter

Minter is an inside/middle linebacker who is projected to be drafted in the first two rounds. While he was close on both ratios, he missed on each. Given his position, he gets a pass on the productivity factor. I’m not ready to pass judgment on him as a result.

Sio Moore

Moore struck on both factors. He was one of my favorite targets before conducting this analysis. He’s a solid all around linebacker with the ability to play every down. With the above, he’ll maintain that and be a player to actively target depending on where he lands in next month’s draft.

Alec Ogletree

Like many of those discussed before him, Ogletree hit one of the two ratios. His productivity ratio hit, which appears to be the most relevant ratio given it analyzes on field production. As a result, Ogletree will continue to be a top IDP rookie target despite the off-the-field issues.

Sean Porter

Porter is an interesting case. In 2011, he was used in an attacking role and made significant plays as exhibited by his adequate productivity ratio. In fact, many viewed him as a potential first or second round pick prior to the 2012 season. That changed in 2012 when he was used differently and he became more of a read type of linebacker. That resulted in fewer plays and a drop in his draft stock. Porter has the ability to play outside linebacker in either scheme, so his position and scheme will be the key for his fantasy stock. Given that his productivity numbers were a result of his utilization in 2011 and the fact that his explosion numbers are so close to the target, he’s a player that should be targeted depending on where he lands.

Keith Pough

Pough’s production is off the charts, but his explosion numbers are less than stellar. It’s possible that he needs to continue develop physically (like Jason Pierre-Paul), which makes these numbers promising and Pough a notable IDP target. Alternatively, it’s possible the quality of competition at Howard contributed to his big time productivity numbers. Either way, the analysis above puts Pough on the target list. He’s certainly on NFL team’s draft list.

Manti T’eo

Te’o didn’t hit either ratio target showing little explosion at the combine. Given that, the circus surrounding him, as well as the fact that he struggles to shed blockers (see national championship), T’eo won’t be at the top of my target list come rookie draft time.

Cornelius Washington

Both Ogletree and Jones overshadowed Washington at Georgia. His role with Georgia was to take on blockers and free up the two stars. That’s a large reason why his productivity ratio is well below the target. On the flip side, his explosion factor is stellar at 86. It’s possible he’s a workout warrior, but he deserves a watch given the signs of explosion and his Georgia role.

Summary

While these numbers are not definitive in the determination of NFL success and fantasy greatness, both serve as additional data points to consider in drafting and ranking rookies. While this analysis isn’t fool proof, it singles out several players as targets to consider earlier than most owners would for a justifiable reason.

Next up… defensive ends.

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