The Auction Block

Vincent Gabriele Posted On March 24, 2013

Editor’s Note: This particular article is submitted by a new Member Corner author, Vincent Gabriele. We welcome Vincent to the Member Corner and look forward to seeing more of his work in the future!

After the free agency period, we have already seen some major moves by teams that are defining what they want to be for the 2013 season right before our very eyes. Let’s take a look at some the key free agent signings and the impact to their 2013 auction value. Please take note that all auction values in this column are based on a $200 salary cap.

1.) Mike Wallace, WR MIA
(Previous auction value $30, New auction value $38)

This was possibly the worst kept free agency secret of the last decade. Listen this isn’t brain surgery, Joe Philbin is the Head Coach of the Dolphins because of what he did as the Offensive Coordinator in Green Bay. He is going to run his version of the West Coast offensive with vertical tendencies. To do that, he needs a receiver at the X position who can take the top off a defense and that is exactly what Wallace does. This move allows Brian Hartline to slide over as the #2 playing the poor man’s Jordy Nelson role. The one hole left for Miami to fill was the tight end position where I previously thought Jared Cook would be a natural fit prior to signing with Tennessee, but Dustin Keller will now slide into that role.

This all sounds well and good, and is certainly an upgrade in terms of overall talent for second year quarterback Ryan Tannehill, however, the fact remains that Wallace/Hartline/Brandon Gibson/Keller, is not Greg Jennings/Nelson/Randall Cobb/Jermichael Finley and Tannehill is nowhere near Aaron Rodgers level at this point. So, expectations for Wallace should be tempered. In terms of actual auction value, I think the move does increase Wallace’s value albeit marginally – I like him as low WR1, more than a WR2 and on a $200 cap, I see him in the $35-$38 range. Anything over that and I think you are paying for production that is just not going to be there.

2.) Reggie Bush, RB DET
(Previous auction value $15, New auction value $30)

This is by far my favorite free agent signing at this point. I love the fit in the offense as I see Reggie as a more durable form of Jahvid Best. What many people tend to forget is back in 2011 when Detroit came out to a 5-1 start, Best had 84 carries for 390 yards and two touchdowns on the ground and went for 27/287/1 receiving out of the backfield. In PPR leagues, that is high end production and I have no reason to believe Reggie cannot at least match that. The market will still be hesitant because it will overvalue Mikel Leshoure, but the savvy owner will sit back and steal him for $30 or less as a nice RB2 option.

3.) Wes Welker, WR DEN
(Previous auction value $40, New auction value $50)

Peyton Manning, meet your new favorite target. What a coup by John Elway snatching Welker from their conference rivals for a very reasonable two year ,$12 million deal. We all know what Welker can produce and how valuable he is, especially in PPR leagues. It is not at all inconceivable for him to get 130+ targets in this offense. Throw down the money and watch the points flow your way.

4.) Danny Amendola, WR NE
(Previous auction value $8, New auction value $22)

Fact, with the exception of Tom Brady, Bill Belichick has no emotional attachment to any player, whatsoever. Reason being is he believes at his core that if production can be duplicated at a lesser price, that is the route you go. Period. Case in point is waving goodbye to a receiver who caught 118 balls for 1,354 yds and six touchdowns last season for a player who played in 11 games and while he has shown flashes, has had trouble staying healthy.

Obviously Belichick and the Patriots are willing to gamble that Amendola shakes the injury bug and they believe he has similar a similar enough skill set to Welker, as well as being four years younger, to put up the same numbers. Does this mean I am willing to spend close to the $50 on Amendola that I previous projected on Welker? No, it does not. Amendola will have to come in and learn a complicated offense, one that gave fits to Chad Ochocinco (bad example) and the recently released Brandon Lloyd. Amendola will have to be a quick study and most importantly earn Tom Brady’s trust. That does not happen overnight so expect some growing pains early on for the Tom and Danny show.

5.) Chase Daniel, QB KC
(Previous auction value $0, New auction value $1)

Before you think I am crazy, just hear me out. Dynasty leagues are all about being one or two years ahead of your competition. Those of you who saw Colin Kapernick’s talent and wisely stashed him on your bench are nodding your heads at me right now. I am not comparing Kapernick to Daniel, but I will say this – Andy Reid knows the quarterback position. He signed his backup quarterback to a three year, $10 million contract with $5 million GUARANTEED. Daniel is a guy who threw for over 4,300 yards in both his Junior and Senior seasons and has spent the last three years studying under arguably the NFL’s best passer in Drew Brees. If you are in a dynasty league (and of course you are, otherwise why would you be reading this) and want to speculate on a quarterback, this could be a great low cost, high ceiling investment.

Follow Vincent (aka “Mr. Auction”) on twitter: @EmpireFantasyVG