Post Combine Rookie Mock Draft: Round One
The scouting combine has come and gone – that means pro teams as well as die hard football fans have all had the chance to see (and in some cases drool over) the newest crop of rookies. In some cases, the combine changed everything, in others, it changed absolutely nothing.
In order to figure out which is the case for each player, here is the second in our series of rookie only mock drafts. This particular draft features three rounds and was conducted one week after the NFL combine in order to give you an idea of how much has changed. There are still an awful lot of items that can and will change our opinions, the largest of which is of course the NFL Draft, but here is what people are thinking right now.
For this mock draft, we assumed it was a standard scoring PPR league with normal lineup requirements, meaning no IDP, super flex, or two quarterback leagues. Trades were not allowed. Draft order was randomly assigned and each drafter was asked to make a brief comment about why they made the pick they did. I’ll follow up each pick with some brief thoughts of my own. I’m not a draft expert, and like many of you, my rookie analysis is far from complete. I’m just sharing my thoughts so you get two opinions on each pick. In cases of disagreement, I’ll be the first to admit I might be the one that is wrong.
Once all three rounds are complete, I’ll give a wrap up of the major risers and fallers so you can get a feel for which players seem to be moving about the most thanks to the combine. If you want to take a look for yourself, you can look back at the pre-combine round 1 and round 2 mock drafts.
1.01 – Eddie Lacy, RB Alabama
Ghost’s thoughts: In a league where starting running backs are so hard to come by, Lacy looks to be starting wherever he goes. His tough running style should allow him to rack up the yards and scores.
My thoughts: I was disappointed Lacy pulled out of the combine due to injury. Part of me wonders if he looked at the rest of the running backs and realized there wasn’t anyone who could challenge him for the top back in this class and just decided to wait for his Pro day on his home field. Due to positional value, he has separated into a tier of his own for me right now. The NFL draft could change things, but as of now I think he’s the sure fire first pick in pretty much all rookie drafts.
1.02 – Giovani Bernard, RB North Carolina
Ryan’s thoughts: Although many are excited by the depth of the running back class, there are few likely second or thirrd round running backs that interest me, so taking Bernard was an easy call. There are some WRs closing the gap over the past few weeks, but for me, Bernard hangs on to this spot. In the end, I think he will be a late first or early second round pick and should get plenty of carries as part of a RBBC in his rookie year.
My thoughts: He is very fast and very explosive. PPR scoring definitely helps Bernard, who has great hands and is very good in the open field. However, there is something that bugs me about him – he seems to lack power and almost seems to lack the desire to fight for extra yards. He struggles after contact and doesn’t seem to make defenders miss as much as I had hoped. There’s a big enough gap between him and Lacy that I might have gone receiver here, but he is the next best running back on the board.
1.03 – Cordarrelle Patterson, WR Tennessee
Mark’s thoughts: Perhaps the highest upside wide receiver with all the physical tools, so I was happy to take him with the third pick.  He was some questions marks and isn’t refined by any means, but his combine numbers solidified his spot as a top 2-3 wide receiver.
My thoughts: I agree with Mark. When it comes to wide receiver upside, Patterson is top two in this draft along with Da’Rick Rogers. He is a little raw, but if he ends up with a coach and maybe a veteran receiver who can help to nurture his ability, we could easily be talking about a player who could be pushing into top ten receiver territory with a few years as long as he can learn the pro game.
1.04 – Tavon Austin, WR West Virginia
Jeff B’s thoughts: I don’t necessarily think Austin has the highest ceiling of this extremely talented wide receiver class, but I do think he’s the only can’t miss prospect of the whole group. He’ll be a PPR monster from day one, which is the best you can hope for if your fantasy team needs an immediate impact.
My thoughts: While I don’t know if there is ever a can’t miss prospect, Austin is probably the safest wide receiver out of the top group, especially if he goes to a team that can support a high profile slot receiver. Austin’s skill set isn’t quite at the Percy Harvin level, but it is fairly close. He’s definitely in the top tier in this draft and should go in the top half of the first round, even in non-PPR leagues.
1.05 – Keenan Allen, WR California
Chad’s thoughts: Allen was the best player on my board with Patterson, Austin, Lacy and Bernard all taken. I really like the way this kid can run routes from the slot. He could be a deep threat if needed, but his strengths are slants, outs, etc. He’s not the tallest receiver in the draft, but plays like it. I think he’s one of the safest picks in the first round to contribute immediately.
My thoughts: I was disappointed that Allen didn’t participate at the combine, but I like his height and size. It will be very interesting to see how his pro day goes, because at this point he is teetering right on the line between two tiers in my mind. I wonder just how fast he will run and how his change of direction will grade out in the drills. I love his route running, body control and hands though.
1.06 – Justin Hunter, WR Tennessee
Eric’s thoughts: At 6’4, 200 lbs, with a 4.5 40 time, Hunter played every bit that fast at Tennessee. He would benefit from a West Coast Offense that gets the ball in his hands quickly and lets him make people miss.
My thoughts: Hunter is the last of my second tier of rookies at this point. While I think he probably cut too much weight for the combine and looked rather thin, he did perform fairly well in the drills. He seems closer to his previous form now than he did on the field during the 2012 season, which is very promising in his recovery from the ACL injury. His consistency still worries me a bit, but he’s an intriguing player.
1.07 – Montee Ball, RB Wisconsin
My thoughts: With how the first six picks of this mock went, this was the drop off pick in my eyes. At this point in time, unless a quarterback or a tight end go in the first six picks, pick seven is just as good as pick eleven. If this were a real draft, I would have tried really hard to drop back a few picks and pick up an extra pick in the mid-rounds. In this mock, that wasn’t an option, so I was forced to make a pick.
I could have gone several different ways, but the rarity of running backs pushed me towards Ball. His vision, balance and ability to cut and go are definite pluses. Combine that with his proven production in college as one of the best college backs of all time and you have a player who is worthy of a first round rookie pick. He isn’t a sexy choice, but he will be a very solid producer in the NFL.
1.08 – DeAndre Hopkins, WR Clemson
Andy’s thoughts: Nuk! Many draftniks were disappointed with his 4.57 40 time, but that is just looking at one aspect of his game. This wide receiver is an amazing route runner who gets separation from defenders using solid technique and agility. Hopkins tracks the ball well in the air and can contort himself to make difficult catches. I love the value he will have in rookie drafts.
My thoughts: It wasn’t just draftniks that were disappointed. I had Hopkins in the mix for top receiver in this draft until his terrible showing at the combine. It wasn’t just his 40 time, either. All his drills were poor and he showed a lack of lower body explosion in his broad jump as well. He has good size and catches the ball well, but I think he might fit as more of a possession receiver at the next level instead of a true number one wide receiver.
1.09 – Tyler Eifert, TE Notre Dame
Steve’s thoughts: I was targeting and hoping DeAndre Hopkins would fall to this pick, but knew it was unlikely. Eifert is probably one of the safest options in this class given his college production and athleticism. He should find himself in a situation where he’ll be utilized immediately as a pass-catching TE and potentially a move TE out of the slot. My other considerations here included Quinton Patton and Da’Rick Rogers. I was close to pulling the trigger on Rogers here, but a head-case is always a concern.
My thoughts: I have Eifert as the clear cut top tight end after the combine. He is a great talent who could be very productive in the right situation, which is likely to be a team like the Dolphins or Bears in the middle of the first round. I struggle with taking tight ends in the first round because there always seems to be more upside at other positions, but I think it is a solid pick at the tail end of the first if you want to play it safe with your pick.
1.10 – Markus Wheaton, WR Oregon State
Jon’s thoughts: He had a very impressive combine where  he improved his stock dramatically. Wheaton ran an impressive 4.45-second 40-yard dash (tenth best among receivers). He also put up 20 reps of 225 pounds on the bench press (the best number for players at his position). His 20-yard shuttle was 4.02 seconds and 60-yard shuttle was 11.16 seconds – both were the best marks for receivers. Wheaton’s vertical jump was 37 inches, broad jump 120 inches and 3-cone drill were 6.8 seconds.  Solid.
My thoughts: He’s a very intriguing pick at this point in the draft. The measureables are definitely there, though I wonder what kind of role he will settle in to at the next level. His size lends itself to more of a slot role, but his speed plays more to the outside. He could easily turn into an Antonio Brown type of receiver if he ends up on the right team, but I think there will be a transition as he adjusts to the bigger, stronger and faster corners at the NFL level.
1.11 – Knile Davis, RB Arkansas
Jeff H’s thoughts: He’s got fumbling issues and he may be a workout warrior, but I can’t pass up that size/speed dynamic at 1.11. Â He’s going to have a chance to go to a good team and if he gets a chance on Sundays, he’s the type of back who may never look back.
My thoughts: I had a feeling he would shoot up draft boards after the combine, but I didn’t expect him to jump into the first round. Between the fumbling and the long history of ankle injuries, I wonder if he will get a solid chance to show what he can do at the next level. If he does, he might have a Darren McFadden type of career where he is a fantasy starter when healthy, but he always misses multiple games a year. He could also be a workout warrior as Jeff said. High risk, high reward with this pick.
1.12 Â –Â Andre Ellington, RB Clemson
Coleman’s thoughts: The shifty back from Clemson does a lot of things well. He can press the hole, he excels at finding the cutback and has a nice blend of moves and power. However, he needs work in pass protection.
My thoughts: Another back who wasn’t selected in the pre-combine mock that jumped up into the first round of this draft. How he did this with a 4.61 40 yard dash time at the combine, I’m not quite sure. Fortunately, he looked a lot faster in games than his time suggests. It does raise a few red flags for me (especially as a first round pick) since prior to the combine I viewed him as a quick, shifty back who lacks some power. If his speed is now in question as well as his power and pass protection, that doesn’t leave much of a role for him.
Stay tuned for the second and third rounds of picks in the next few days!
- Final 2021 Pre-Draft Rookie Mock: Round Three - April 28, 2021
- Final 2021 Pre-Draft Rookie Mock: Round Two - April 26, 2021
- Final 2021 Pre-Draft Rookie Mock: Round One - April 25, 2021
