Dynasty Capsule: Kansas City Chiefs

Ken Kelly

As part of the premium content package, we unveiled dynasty capsules for every team in the NFL leading up to free agency and the NFL Draft. This year, we’re also going to do a follow-up on all the teams after all the free agency and NFL Draft movement to assess the impact of any players teams have gained or lost. Since these capsules are always done as a simple snapshot in time, we figured that was the best way to tackle the off-season and provide ultimate value for our subscribers. All in all, we had over 500 player profiles found in these capsules over the off-season.

Editor’s Note: I’d like to sincerely thank Team DLF for all their hard work in getting these capsules completed prior to the beginning of free agency. Putting together over 64,000 words with 500 player profiles for 32 teams in just over one month is no small feat. This group is the best in the business and their work has been fantastic. In fact, this is the 400th Premium Exclusive article we’ve posted since the inception of the Premium Content package back in April.

We conclude our series with the Kansas City Chiefs.

Quarterbacks

Alex Smith

We went into great detail about the impact Smith will have on the Chiefs here, but we see it as an obvious positive move for his value. After all, he wasn’t going to beat out Colin Kaepernick for the starting job in San Francisco any time soon. Over his seven year career, Smith has thrown for 14,280 yards, 81 touchdowns and 63 interceptions. He is the prototypical game manager quarterback who typically avoids the big mistakes. He’s not blessed with a great arm, nor is he overly dynamic, but he tends to keep his teams in games. Unfortunately, that doesn’t really translate into much from a fantasy perspective.

In the end, expectations for Smith should be a season with around 3,000 passing yards, a touchdown total of between 15 and 20 and an interception total of around 8-10.  While those totals aren’t going to win you any dynasty league titles, you could do worse for a bye week fill-in or low-end QB1. If you suddenly hope Smith is going to finally fulfill his potential of being an overall #1 pick, you’re likely going to be left very disappointed. As we’ve said before, he’s going to be asked to do what he does best – maintain a solid intermediate passing game and check the ball down to Jamaal Charles.

Matt Cassel

Cassel is undoubtedly going to be released, perhaps as soon as today. He was great in 2010, but has regressed to a point where he was simply awful last year when he threw for just 1,796 yards, six touchdowns and 12 interceptions in nine games. Cassel is best served as a backup player and will likely be just that next season, though Minnesota or the New York Jets would be good landing spots for him to at least compete for playing time. As we said last month, if he’s anywhere near a starting job, it’s quite simply a very bad sign for that team – they would likely be the front runner for the first pick in the 2014 draft if they took on a player with a confidence issue like Cassel to be their new starter. He belongs on the waiver wire in dynasty leagues.

Ricky Stanzi

Stanzi also may not be back with the Chiefs this season. The fact he couldn’t beat out Brady Quinn for time last year is a bad sign for the former Iowa Hawkeye.

Running Backs

Jamaal Charles

jamaal_charles2Adrian Peterson became the poster child last year for a successful return from an ACL injury, but Charles didn’t exactly look washed up, either. On the year, he ran for 1,509 yards on 285 carries (good for a 5.3 yards per carry average) and five touchdowns. He also caught 35 passes for 236 yards and one more score – those statistics are pretty impressive considering how dreadful the Chiefs were at the quarterback position last year.

Charles is a very unique player in the fact he can put up elite numbers without depending on a volume of carries. He’s a threat to take any play to the house and should fare well in Andy Reid’s system. You can’t help but salivate at the prospect of him becoming Reid’s next Brian Westbrook as a dual threat out of the backfield.

Now two years removed from injury, Charles is currently being taken as the RB7 in our ADP data and that seems about right for a player with his talent. At just 26 years of age, Charles should still have a handful of explosive seasons left in him, especially if Alex Smith can provide some stability at the quarterback position. He’s a solid RB1 in dynasty leagues at the moment.

Shaun Draughn

Draugn received his only real playing time last year and did fairly well, rushing for 210 yards on 54 carries. He was a little more effective as a pass catches, as he finished the year with 23 catches for 160 yards. With the underwhelming Peyton Hillis out of the picture, Draughn could serve as Charles’ primary backup this season. However, the Chiefs will likely look at free agency or the draft to add depth at the position. It’s hard to look at Draughn and think of him as much more than “just another guy.” He could be rostered as a handcuff to Charles, but that’s really about it at the moment.

Cyrus Gray

The 23-year old Gray was once a highly touted prospect from Texas A&M.  However, injuries have derailed his career thus far and he hasn’t been able to work his way into the mix. If the Chiefs choose to address other positions in the draft and free agency, it could be seen as a vote of confidence in Gray’s abilities. He’s not without talent (he scored 24 touchdowns in his last two years) and has played in a pro style offense under Mike Sherman with the Aggies, so that bodes well for him. We like Gray’s long-term outlook better than Draughn’s and he could be worth a shot as a flyer in dynasty leagues.

Wide Receivers

Dwayne Bowe

After looking poised to test the free agent market, Bowe finally re-signed with the Chiefs for five years and $56 million dollars, with $26 million of that guaranteed – that makes Bowe currently the third highest paid receiver in the NFL (pending Percy Harvin’s new deal). It’s a high price to pay for the Chiefs, but Bowe has been one of the most underrated receivers in fantasy and reality over the last few years. Over his six year career, he has 415 catches for 5,728 yards and 39 touchdowns. When you consider how poorly the quarterback play has been for the Chiefs, that’s pretty impressive.

With Andy Reid and Alex Smith in town, the future obviously looks a little brighter for Bowe. While Smith isn’t known for his cannon arm, Bowe also isn’t a receiver who relies on the deep ball, either. He’s a talented player who can get open in a variety of ways. He should remain a solid WR2 with Wr1 potential. After all, this is a player who once scored 15 touchdowns in a single season. Bowe is currently being taken as the WR24 according to our ADP data and that could prove to be a serious bargain in start up drafts or for evaluating trade value.

Jonathan Baldwin

The Chiefs were hoping to create a dynamic duo with Bowe and Baldwin when they took the former Pitt receiver with their first round pick in 2011. Thus far, it really hasn’t worked out as Baldwin has been disappointing both on and off the field. Over his two year career, he’s posted just 41 catches, 579 yards, two touchdowns and a fight with Thomas Jones. You have to take those stats with a grain of salt due to the horrific offense he’s played in the past two years, but it’s been a mess nonetheless.

Baldwin enters a make or break season in 2013 as a third year receiver who really needs to show something quickly to avoid being labeled as a bust. He still belongs on a dynasty roster as a receiver who has promise, but patience is running thin on this front.

Dexter McCluster

Heralded as a swiss army knife after coming out of Ole Miss, McCluster hasn’t been nearly as effective as many hoped. Over his three years, he has 119 catches for 989 yards and three touchdowns. At this point, he’s more of  a special teams option and not worth a roster spot in dynasty leagues.

Devon Wylie

If there’s an intriguing receiver with potential on the roster of the Chiefs, it’s Wylie. With McCluster likely moving to special teams, Wylie could man the slot for the Chiefs full time next year and be a candidate for a big bump in value in PPR leagues. Andy Reid has been known to be creative with his offense and something tells us he’s going to find a way to use Wylie. We see some good sleeper potential in this young receiver from Fresno State.

Tight End

Tony Moeaki

The formula for Moeaki is pretty simple – stay on the field and he’ll be productive. The problem for Moeaki has been the staying on the field part and that dates all the way back to his playing days at Iowa. With that being said, he’s not without talent. Over his two years (one was lost due to injury), he’s posted 80 catches for just over 1,000 yards and four touchdowns. If he can keep himself healthy, there’s little doubt he could be a Brent Celek-type of player in this new offense. Moeaki finds himself in a crowded tier of TE2s out there, but he does have some upside. He’s currently ranked as our TE27 and that seems about right.

That does it for our 32 team capsules.  We’ll review all the teams again after free agency and the draft.

ken kelly